Six Nations Week 1 - Predictions

My predictions for the first weekend of Six Nations action:

Ireland 36-12 Italy
England 23-18 Wales
Scotland 15-21 France

There... neck on the line.  You will note that my heart has not ruled my head for the first time in ages predicting the first Six Nations matches.

A relatively easy win for Ireland (if they lose it will be a major, major shock).  A tight win for England - on the back of the injury withdrawals Wales have suffered (Jenkins, Rees will be big losses) - and the home advantage should see them home.  With regards Scotland, I always, always pick them to win their first game and they always, always lose.  So this time I'm reversing that trend and predicting the will lose.  That way, if they do lose, I won't be disappointed having expected them to win... and if they win I'll be even happier because it was unexpected.

You can join the debate at a Facebook group specifically for this purpose:  A Bit of Six Nations banter 2010.

Anyone else up for predicting?

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Good news for Labour?

Thanks to Will, I learn that the number of Scottish Labour MPs who will not be standing for the party at the next General Election is now in double figures.  They are:

Jim Devine (Livingston)

Nigel Griffiths (Edinburgh South)

Gavin Strang (Edinburgh East)

John McFall (West Dunbartonshire)

Anne Moffat (East Lothian)

Des Browne (Kilmarnock & Loudoun)

Mohammed Sarwar (Glasgow Central)

Adam Ingram (East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow)

Rosemary McKenna (Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East)

John Reid (Airdrie & Shotts)

I don't know that I have a huge amount to add to Will's excellent piece surrounding the state of Labour in Scotland at the moment, other than to note with some disbelief that 10 out of 39 Labour MPs (that is, 25% or one in every FOUR) is - for one reason or another - not standing for the party again next time round.

I'm not here to suggest that each (or indeed any) of these "retirements" will result in the loss of the seat for Labour.  But in certain places the result could be affected by the standing down/ de-selection of the sitting MP.  Think particularly of Livingston, where Jim Devine has been de-selected and may stand as an independent.  Or indeed, the fractures in the East Lothian Labour party which may result in many Anne Moffat supporters failing to turn out in support of another Labour candidate.  Or the tight race in Edinburgh South, where Nigel Griffiths "kent face" may have helped Labour hold onto a slim majority - now that seat is very much a wide-open three horse race.

On the face of it, I'd suggest that 10 MPs standing down won't help Labour hold onto marginal seats.  It has the aura of a party in decline - a party ceding power, with major players finding their way out before they are pushed.  On the other hand, this could be an opportunity for the party to blood some new, younger MPs during a period of opposition, giving them some experience as MPs before the party has another opportunity to govern.  But that, as a strategy, would recognise that Labour are probably not going to win the election, a message which isn't exactly useful on the doorsteps.


And, of course, if all Labour do is replace those retiring MPs with MSPs then that isn't really going to be of much benefit, either to the party at Westminster or under Iain Gray's leadership at Holyrood.

So perhaps this purge of MPs may have a favourable outcome for Labour in the long run.  I guess, like so much else in politics, we'll just have to wait and see.

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World Cup Predictions

In light of Celtic's bold swoop for Robbie Keane as the transfer window shut yesterday (get in!) here's a post on footie.  Not quite on the same topic - its my World Cup prediction.  And though the sport is different, this will prepare you for 7 weeks of rugby chat (and the Superbowl on Sunday) given the Six Nations is about to start.  But more of that later.

So here you go.  

When the World Cup finishes in South Africa, you can check how right (or, more likely, how wrong) I was with my predictions.  I'm always stupid enough to back Spain and the Netherlands at international competitions, and they always disappoint, so I'm not expecting much.  Anyway, thoughts - and your predictions - in the comments.

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Public Transport

I've been away up north for the weekend.  Fairly good time too.  But, it is a wee while since I've made that particular journey on public transport, and I have a few observations to make.

1)  The Big Issue is a pretty good read when you are on a train. (Note - a pretty good read anyway, but when you're on a train, you have the time to read it).

2)  Engineering works go on at the weekend - and must cost train companies a fair bit of money in replacement buses.  In spite of the horrendous north-east weather, the buses were comfortable - and, importantly, on time.

3)  People are ignorant and inconsiderate.  At least the ones on our train were.  There was the guy who took up a whole table (and two seats - though that was more due to his size than anything) for his laptop, who then proceeded to crunch through a packet of chipsticks and eat a Double Decker the loudest I've ever heard anyone eat.  The woman opposite us (with a ring emblazoned with the word MUM across it in huge letters) who spent the entire time texting and receiving texts - with her phone at full volume.  And there was the carriage full of kids, which was our own fault really - picking the carriage next to the station door wasn't smart.  But seriously, when parents have kids under 5 on public transport, think of ways to keep them occupied and don't let them scream every 5 minutes.

At least the event I was home for was a success - despite the drifting snow, the blizzards and the freezing temperatures.  I'll be hoping the weather changes for the better by March.

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