What if Labour win?
Recent conjecture surrounding the upcoming General Election has centred upon two possible outcomes: A Conservative victory large enough to allow them to govern fairly comfortably or a Hung Parliament. But there is a third possible outcome, however unlikely it may seem:
A Labour win.
Think about that for a second. Speculation regarding the end of the recession, the end of Brown, the SNP in the Scottish Government and their referendum - everything making the news at the moment - all that is predicated on the expected outcome, a Conservative victory and David Cameron as Prime Minister. But what if - IF - Labour can squeeze out a win?
Would Gordon stay on? What about the doubters & plotters? Would Harriet make her move? What about the Miliband of brothers (D-edward to some)? Would they continue to back Brown's leadership? And how long would a fourth term in office last for Labour? A few months or a full term?
Think of the knock-on effect though. Brown's plan to fight the recession would have to be enacted. The Calman proposals too, would have to be worked out. Jim Murphy (assuming he retained his seat) would probably remain as Scottish Secretary, strengthening his position (and weakening Iain Gray's). The SNP - well, they probably don't care either way. A weak Labour government with a small majority would be just as good for their ends as a strong Conservative government with no mandate in Scotland. Would a referendum pass? Who knows.
The big question for me though is how Labour would react to returning to power. All signs at the moment point to the party preparing for a defeat - and if they don't get trounced that would be a victory in itself. But should they confound expectations - with an unpopular leader - would the poisonous plotting disappear or come to the fore?
Many questions, with no real answer at the moment. The coming election should provide a few answers, and perhaps a few more questions. Whenever it is held.
4 comments:
Malc
"The big question for me though is how Labour would react to returning to power"
I suspect the internal Labour Party reaction in large parts would be a heady mix of panic, disbelief, self doubt, and perhaps a touch of arrogance (it would be a fourth term victory after all).
We have not seen the Manifestos yet, but I sense that a large part of the electorate (including party members) just don't feel that Labour have the policy ideas or energy for another 5 years of Government.
All parties need periods of review, self reflection and renewal. I think that many in the Labour Party are crying out for this and perhaps need a time in opposition to re-energise itself and reconnect with their core values and purpose.
A win would surely bring a challenge to Brown's leadership within 12-18 months (mandate or no mandate).
I really 'don't give a monkeys' what the internal reaction within Labour might be to this outcome (aka 'disaster' for the country), it would simply cement my belief that the British people had finally taken leave of their senses - and I would react by getting out of here as quickly as possible; as I have a home elsewhere that is a practical and immediate possibility. Barring an immediate reintroduction of draconian exchange controls (which were abolished in 1979 following the end of the last disastrous period of Labour government) I, along with many tens of thousands of others, will pull our assets out of the UK - I might even consider doing it in advance of the election if this seems to be a real possibility.
If Labour win again then its time to form an orderly queue outside New Zealand house.
It would surely prove that the Conservative party are unelectable. If they can't beat Gordon Brown after all, when can they win an election?
I have a secret feeling that the SNP party would prefer a Tory win, and a Tory party that were aggressively negative towards Scotland. Which in turn, the SNP hope would make more people want independence.
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