John McCain versus who?

For a change I'm spoilt for choice over things to blog on, so I'll start in America.

Two big stories after a night of massive primary results: John McCain securing the Republican nomination (with thoughts now turning to his search for a VP candidate) and Hillary Clinton securing wins in Ohio & Texas which keep alive her hopes of winning the Democratic nomination.

Starting with the uncertainty over the Democratic race, there is still a lot to play for. Despite Clinton's wins in Ohio & Texas, she still trails Obama in the delegate count. Even so, she's the one talking about a "super-ticket" with her at the top. I can't see Obama becoming her VP candidate though - she's attacked him way too much for that. And with the next meaningful contest (the Pennsylvania primary, with 158 delegates up for grabs) still 7 weeks away, we can expect more of the same emphasis of the differences between the candidates.

Meanwhile (as I predicted here) the fact that John McCain has already secured the Republican nomination means he can look more and more Presidential while Clinton & Obama continue to squabble over who has the right to be the "first". McCain has now started to look at VP candidates - with Tom Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor) near the top of the list alongside former rival Mike Huckabee.

One quick qualification. As West Wing fans will no doubt point out, this is looking eerily like the final season of the popular tv series, with the Republicans uniting behind a moderate conservative while the Democrats squabbled up until the convention - eventually selecting another "first", in this case, a Latino candidate. WW fans will point out that the Dems ended up winning that race. However, as a geek who knows more than he should about that tv show, I would point out in return that it was only upon the untimely death of actor John Spencer (who played Dem VP candidate Leo McGarry) that the writers decided to let the Dems win the race for the White House. Up until that point, the Republican candidate was set to win the poll but the writers felt that they needed a "happier" ending to the series

Of course that was only a tv show...

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On the other side of the world

It's maybe a reflection of how quiet things are here at the moment that I'm choosing to blog on news on the opposite side of the world, but these issues have dimensions which affect us all.

Forgetting about the US Presidential election for a moment, there is other news from the Americas which may impact us all the way over here. It seems that Colombian troops have killed Raul Reyes, the second in command of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). All very good you say, FARC is a terrorist organisation (at least according to the Colombian government, the US, Canada and the EU), they've killed many people in Colombia over a fifty year low-intensity armed conflict with the government, and they're generally bad people.

Well... yes. I mean, subject to caveats (not everyone likes the term "terrorist" for a start - as it is overused and meaningless now) you'd be right in thinking that a hit on the "bad guys" is good for democracy, and striking at the head of the organisation will undoubtedly weaken it thereby slowing their war effort - its good military strategy.

But, the death of Reyes, occurring as it did in Ecuador, raises more questions. Not only has Venezuela's outspoken President Chavez denounced the attack, but both Venezuela and Ecuador expelled Colombian diplomats from their embassies, recalled their own dignitaries from Colombia and have moved significant numbers of troops to their borders with Colombia, thereby increasing tensions in an already politically sensitive area.

And why is this relevant to here?

The Colombian militia's actions - a cross border raid to attack an outpost base of domestic terrorists - was done without the consent of the Ecuadorian President. This emphasises the extent to which nations are now willing to trample over national sovereignty to deal with transnational issues like terrorism. We saw it with the US & non-UN sanctioned action in Iraq. We've seen Israel take steps to protect itself from acts of terror from civilians & military personnel in neighbouring Lebanon. And now Colombia has taken action against guerilla leaders when they've been residing outwith their national borders.

Its a worrying development. And it begs the question - is there such a thing as international law any more?

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"The Audacity of Hope"

Going back to the US Presidential election - and given that I've been mocked by some in blogland for backing John McCain - I thought I'd share with you an experience I had on Sunday.

I caught 5 minutes of Barack Obama giving a campaign speech in Dayton, Ohio. He was talking about his favourite subject - hope. His hopes that he can bring Americans together. His hopes to secure some republican supporters' votes in November. His hopes to be President. And I have an admission to make.

I was impressed.

He is an eloquent speaker - something which could not be said for the outgoing President. He takes the attacks from within his own party well and dismisses them with the same contempt that they are thrown at him. He inspires. And even if he does not win the democratic candidacy or, more likely, wins the candidacy but loses the general election to John McCain, he will have a legacy which is much more positive than that of the incumbent President. For he has shown that from his background, from being born into a single - teenage - parent, not particularly wealthy family you can get to where he is currently, close to the Presidency of the United States.

It is what hopes and dreams are made of. And I am impressed. But for all the talk of change, I think continuity is also required. And experience. And that is something which, in four or eight years, Barack Obama will have in spades. But not yet.

But I am impressed. And I won't be disappointed if he does become the next US President.

[edit] Also, I was just reading a rather good blog entry by Jeff at Tactical Voting on Barack Obama, and found this video of him dancing on the Ellen show in the US. Good to know that if he doesn't win the race for the White House, there's always a job for him in showbusiness (or as a university rector..).

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The Future of Liberal Democracy...

Having savaged Stephen Nicol for being... well, rubbish, I thought I better offer some hope for his future. Former UK party leader (that is, before they kicked him out for having a bit of character) Charles Kennedy was this week elected rector of Glasgow University. He joins another former party leader (who was kicked out for having a bit of... age) Sir Menzies Campbell as a rector [edit - not rector, Chancellor - which I should've known having sat through a grad ceremony last year!, thanks to ASWAS for that] of one of Scotland's old universities - he's at St Andrews.

So is there a future for the most bland man in Scottish politics in this sphere? Time will only tell...

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