Tuesday, 5 February 2008

Super Tuesday - pre-results

It's 10.30pm GMT and I'm done for the night. I had a long weekend, and really don't have the energy to stay awake and watch how the US votes, so I'm going to tell it like I see it before I go to bed.

On the Republican side, I think John McCain will have a good night. Although he probably won't pass the threshold required for the nomination, the opportunity the Republican race gives - with winner-take-all primaries - means that he will get very close. Mike Huckabee will probably bow out tomorrow after polling no more than 20% in any of the states voting while Mitt Romney will lick his wounds a bit longer before deciding on his future in the race.

For the Democrats it will still be - as it has been from the start - a two horse race. Obama & Clinton will fight it out tonight, and with more delegates required than in the Republican race, neither will get anywhere near the total required for nomination. A good night for either will see them appear more likely for November, but while John McCain romps away with the Republican ticket - and appears more statesman like everyday - the squabbling on the Democratic side will see them lose momentum to McCain for the General Election in November, and with it, the Democrats chances of regaining the Presidency.

I'll see tomorrow how accurate I am...

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