Showing posts with label By-election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label By-election. Show all posts

Thursday, 30 July 2009

God's politics

(Shock horror - a post on politics!)



There's been a heck of a lot of chat about SNP Candidate (for the Glasgow North-East by-election, whenever that is) David Kerr's religious views and whether they should impact upon people's intentions to vote for him. A lot of it has been pretty biased, partisan and snotty (and no, I'm not going to categorise those by linking to them).

But then I read Lallands Peat Worrier and his take on David Kerr, his beliefs and its role in informing his politics. And I agreed with pretty much all of it. It's a cracking article and well worth a read - on the basis that my summary (next paragraph) won't do it justice.

Basically, what Lallands argues is that David Kerr's religious views (that is, his membership of the Catholic organisation Opus Dei and its associated belief structure) may probably inform his views on issues such as abortion, euthanasia and gay marriage. Thus while his religious beliefs may be of no concern to the average voter in Glasgow North East (though, if I remember rightly, something like 60%+ of the electorate in that constituency describe themselves as Catholic) the impact of these beliefs on his political and moral views may well do. It makes voting for him a trade-off: do you support his views on independence and ignore his views on abortion for example (not that we know what they are given his framing that as a "theological question" rather than a political one) or will his views on abortion feature more strongly in a decision to vote for someone over constitutional preferences?

All voting is a trade-off. There's never a candidate with whom you agree with 100%. And if there is, chances are they are standing in a different constituency (or country... President Obama perhaps?). But the point is parties (supposedly) select the candidate they believe will represent the constituency best and when they are elected they (should) vote with the best interests of the constituency at heart - or, at worst, abstain where there is a distinct clash with personal moral views). Note the caveats in that sentence.

The problem with by-elections over General Elections is that every single aspect of a candidate's life - political, private, economic and, yes, religious - is examined and scrutinised in much more detail than ever before. More will be known in Glasgow North East about David Kerr and Willie Bain than even about David Cameron and Gordon Brown. And this is a good thing - it allows the voters to make a better judgement about the character of the candidate before they elect them.

Alastair Campbell famously said "We don't do God." But then his most famous charge converted to Catholicism. With all the respect that comes with being the country's most famous former spin doctor, I think he's wrong. Whether you believe in God, accept religion (or whatever faith) or simply recognise right from wrong, religion plays a part in every day life - and, most especially, in politics. Note I didn't say "Christianity" there. It is my belief that moral decision-making, the belief in right and wrong and acceptance of a need for a rule of law derives from the moral code of religion. And again, I stress religion - not one but many.

Now I don't profess that religion makes you a good person or that you have to be religious to know right from wrong. What I'm arguing is that religion has informed those moral decisions, moral choices, for generations, and that we have, as a society, derived our own moral compass from previous generations... right back to when religion was politics.

Basically, this is a long and winded way of saying that religion matters in politics. Of course it does. But it shouldn't be the only thing that matters when you go to the polls (if it ever happens) in Glasgow North-East. To make an informed decision about the candidates you should know as much about them as you can. But that should be limited to what will inform their politics I think.

Knowing that David Kerr is a member of Opus Dei is useful in as far as it gives you a rough idea of where his theological leanings lie - and thus how his politics (should he have to vote on these issues) will go. His membership of Opus Dei will not tell you where he stands on the economy, health service, defence spending, international relations, the constitution, education, refuse collection striking or anything else. For those things - if they matter to you - you'll have to ask him.

Read more...

Tuesday, 14 July 2009

Meltdown?


I guess there is no point in my pointing out the inaccuracies of The Scotsman's reporting of the SNP's candidate selection procedure in Glasgow North-East. I mean, why let the facts get in the way of a good Labour story? Presumably (if previous comments are anything to go by) I'll just be accused of being bitter. But for the benefit of those who may read the article, let me point out a couple of things.

The Scotsman claim that David Kerr will become the SNP's "fourth choice candidate" - thereby implying that there were three people in line for the candidacy before him. Those named by the Scotsman as ahead of him are current SNP MSP Anne McLaughlin, Glasgow Councillor (and former blogger) Grant Thoms and SNP leader on Glasgow City Council, James Dornan.

Where to start?

Anne McLaughlin was the SNP candidate for the corresponding seat in the Scottish Parliament - Glasgow Springburn - in 2007, but was elected an an MSP earlier this year on the death of Glasgow Region MSP Bashir Ahmad (just in case there is any confusion, Glasgow Springburn and Glasgow North-East, although they cover very similar territory, are actually constituencies for two different parliaments). She may have been in consideration as a candidate in the event of a General Election (which was never called) but after she became an MSP that was no longer the case.

Grant Thoms was, I believe, slated to be the the candidate for Glasgow North East in the event that a snap General Election was called by new PM Gordon Brown. SNP rules dictate that if a by-election is called in a constituency then the party must hold a selection procedure again. Grant Thoms at that point decided that he did not wish to put his name forward for selection, with speculation that he feared his sexuality would be attacked by opposition parties, and subsequently did not put his name forward.

Then the selection meeting occurred and James Dornan won the candidature. Subsequently, he decided that his previous financial difficulties may come to light and stepped down as a candidate, leaving David Kerr as the favourite for the post.

In that fact based telling of events, how many people can you count that were ahead of David Kerr in the selection procedure? I count only one - James Dornan - who was selected by the local SNP to fight the by-election (apparently against the hopes of the First Minster though not the Deputy FM - at least according to the above linked article).

Meltdown? Not so much. Labour propaganda? I'll let you decide, though here are some other posts which discuss the issue to help you make up your mind.

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Tuesday, 19 May 2009

Better late than never


So, Michael Martin will step down as Speaker this afternoon in a statement in the Commons.

No confirmation yet on the timetable for his departure from the seat or whether he will return to the backbenches or step down from parliament entirely.

There are several options I guess:

1) He announces he will go at the end of the Parliamentary session - whenever Gordon Brown calls a General Election. Not exactly the favoured option of MPs who have lost all confidence in the man's ability to do his job.

2) He announces that he will stay on until a successor can be found - presumably just before the summer recess. Probably the smartest move - allowing time to select a new Speaker but would also mean ANOTHER summer Glasgow by-election for Labour to effectively defend.

3) He announces that he will go immediately. Nuclear option, which I don't believe he will go for - but it would be a "toys out of the pram" moment were he to do so.

Two big issues arise though: the vacancy for a new Speaker and a vacancy for an MP in Glasgow North-East.

The parties will be on election footing for both.

Predictions:

Vince Cable to win the Speakership. I think he has momentum and public support. As for the upcoming by-election... erm, I'm going to wait a wee while and have a think about it. Labour are not in a strong position, but it is a strongold area for them... but then again, so was Glasgow East.

Incisive analysis I know, but you get what you pay for!

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Friday, 7 November 2008

Glenrothes: Analysis


Well, after Glasgow East I indulged in a spot of analysis, so I thought I'd do the same for Glenrothes. I think my immediate post-match analysis (so to speak!) pretty much covers it, though I'll go into a bit more detail here.

Labour - undoubtedly a good night. By winning more votes than his popoular predecessor John MacDougall (19,946 to 19,385) Lindsay Roy ensured that Labour would hold the seat next door to the Prime Minister's. Based on the huge turnout and the upturn in economic circumstances (with Labour coloured glasses on of course) Roy was able to hold off a 5% swing to the SNP. The Scotsman attributes the win to a "Brown Bounce" which I'm not sure really exists. I just think Labour were very much able to get their vote out. Also don't think people were quite as willing to give the Prime Minister another kick - especially after he was kicked so hard in Glasgow East.

SNP - For the SNP it was a disappointing night. After suggestions (promises?) from the First Minister that they were going to win the seat, they had to settle for slashing Labour's majority from 10,000+ to 6,700. Not quite the result they had hoped for. Despite falling short, the party have succeeded in increasing their vote share by 13% and adding 5,000 votes to the SNP's pile in Glenrothes however, which is a good result. The BBC questions whether this result has burst the SNP's bubble. I'd argue not really, for a couple of reasons - and this is not spin.

First up, as an academic, it is easy to spot electoral trends. In Westminster elections - which voters still treat as primary elections - they look for a party that can act on the UK stage. They are much happier to give their vote to the SNP in Scottish Parliament elections where they see that the party can make a difference. Second, Glenrothes is vastly different from Glasgow East, both in terms of the make-up of the seat and the political circumstances. The SNP run the council here (in Glasgow it is Labour) which has contributed to the perception of incumbency - and they've had to defend their record. Plus the urge to kick the Prime Minister was not as pronounced here.


Conservatives - for the Tories, well it was a mixed night. They did well to overturn the Lib Dems and finish third, but they lost their deposit. However, Glenrothes is not exactly fertile voting territory for the Conservatives, and the fact that they've beaten out the Lib Dems for third suggests something for them to cheer about.

Lib Dems - Oh dear. Without attempting to bait Stephen or Caron, where to start. For the second by-election in a row the Lib Dems have fallen to fourth and lost their deposit. And I could replicate this post here. Apparently there was even talk that the Lib Dems - with nearby seats in North East Fife (Menzies Campbell) and Dunfermline and West Fife (Willie Rennie) could even win the seat. With that in mind, how did the party only end up taking 947 votes? I know - it was a classic two-party fight (something which I pointed out here) which squeezed their vote. But for a party that claims to be the third party, the "real alternative" government, surely this is not just a bad result, its an unmitigated disaster?

I know I'm a bit unfair to the Lib Dems in criticism sometimes - and this may look like I'm diverting attention from a disappointing night for the SNP. You'll have to trust me that is not my intention - for I even did this after Glasgow East (when the SNP won). I'm just struggling to see what the Lib Dems stand for now - and I think, so were the voters in both Glasgow East and Glenrothes. Much was made of their win in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, but if the party are not careful, Willie Rennie probably won't be returning to Westminster after the next election... and Ming Campbell won't exactly have a cakewalk in North East Fife (though he should be safe enough). So Stephen and Caron, I know you guys were both out in Glenrothes and for that I'll praise your dedication. But two lost deposits in a row - are you fighting a lost cause?

So here we are. Congratulations to Lindsay Roy MP on winning the election (and proving my hunch correct!). Each of the parties has lessons to learn from Glenrothes though.

Read more...

Thursday, 6 November 2008

Glenrothes By-Election LIVE BLOG

1.04 Right, after two of these in three nights, I'm absolutely shattered. Off to bed. Its been a good night for Labour, a "reality check" for the SNP, a disappointment for the Tories and a disaster for the Lib Dems. Sound like a fair analysis? More will follow tomorrow, but for now, thanks for joining me. Have again, thoroughly enjoyed the liveblog and the chat in the comments. Until the next one, cheers!

1.00
Jim Silliars says its a "good thing" for the SNP that they haven't won Glenrothes - its a reality check. Which makes sense. Also, he says that "Independence must be put back on the front of the party's agenda" and they must start talking it up independence, making the case for it. But he also goes off on a bit of a rant about everything which takes away from his point a wee bit.

0.56
So there we have it. Labour hold the seat - and get slightly more votes than previously. The SNP increased their vote massively - 5,000 more than last time out. Disaster for Lib Dems, who fall from third to fourth for the second by-election in succession as well as losing their deposit again. Tories up to third but they lost their deposit too.

0.47
Lindsay Roy is banging on that the SNP are making cuts and that is bad. Doesn't he realise that we're in a recession?

0.43 RESULT:
Lindsay Roy, Labour 19,946
Peter Grant, SNP 13,209
Maurice Golden, Conservative 1,381
Harry Wills, Liberal Democrats 947
Jim Parker, Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party 296
Morag Balfour, Scottish Socialists 212
Kris Seunarine, UKIP 117
Louise McLeary, Solidarity 87

Majority, 6,737
Swing 5% from Labour to SNP


0.41
David Mundell makes a good point - shouldn't extract anything on a national scale from this by-election. Willie Rennie is making out that its a worse result for the SNP (finishing second - presumably - with an increased vote share) than it is for the Lib Dems (possibly finishing 4th, losing their deposit). Doesn't that make him sound a bit silly?

0.35
Though, in fairness, she makes a decent point about the SNP being judged on actions - record at Holyrood and at Council level in Fife. On another point, sometimes I slate the BBC for their coverage, but tonight, it has been pretty good.

0.33
Anne McGuire, the awful MP for Stirling, is now on BBC... she's almost the worst MP I've ever seen. She's my Gran's MP - true story.

0.26
Kiss of death in by-elections appears to be a prediction that you will win from Scottish Tory Boy. Two by-elections - two wrong predictions. Oh dear...

0.23
Two points that are being made here: If you don't win a seat do you lose it? Or is it only if you hold the seat and don't win it that you lose it? That's an interesting take...

0.21
Angus Robertson is spinning his way out of Alex Salmond's prediction. And he's doing a pretty decent job of it. Glenn Campbell is toasting him a wee bit though. It's all about "progress" for the SNP and "slashing" the Labour majority.

0.17
Apparently a result from Glenrothes in 15mins. Don't hold your breath.

0.14
I have news from Forth by-election. And that is a Labour Hold as well. Labour won 2,000 votes there to the SNP's 1,800. Tories grabbed 1,200, Lib Dems 900 and Big Brother Independent got 200. Obviously the figures are somewhat approximate...

0.10
Susan Deacon makes a good point. The realities of governing impact hugely upon a party.

0.06
The blog at the Guardian makes a good point. Maybe we shouldn't gift wrap this for Labour yet. The projections have been all over the place all night. Might not be over yet. Anyone buying this? No? Me either...

0.03
No confirmation on the Forth by-election yet, but early rumours are that Labour may have held onto that one too. Looks like a clean sweep for Gordon's boys and girls...

23.56
There was also a by-election in Glasgow East tonight - the Ballieston ward of Glasgow City Council. Looks like Labour have held that seat - with a majority of 260. Or so I hear.

23.55
Just got a text from a Labour source. He is hearing that the party are "home and dry..." Not looking like a big win, but a win nonetheless.

23.49
Yeah, here's what I said two weeks ago:
But surely they are in a better position now to win the seat than they were two months ago? And they might just do it - by around 1,500 votes I reckon. Maybe.
Though I also suggested that the turnout would be much lower - so why would you trust anything I predict?!

23.42
Murphy predicts 1. Lab, 2. SNP, 3. Con, 4. LD. I think that's what I'd go with - and that's what I said last week.

23.40
Is it time for me to go all smug and say "I said last week when everyone else was predicting SNP would win that Labour would hold it" or do I hold off? Its still early...

23.38
Turnout over 52% - huge for a by-election.

23.36
Claims that Labour have HELD the seat - maybe by around 1,000.

23.33
John Curtice (Prof, Strathclyde Uni) casting it as a vote about Gordon Brown's handling of the economic crisis.

23.16
Willie Rennie MP (Lib Dem for a close-by seat!) also claims incumbency for the SNP - perhaps trying to paint that if they don't win, it's a disaster?

23.14
Jim Murphy (new Sec State for Scotland - more on that later) is playing a smart game on Newsnight. He's saying that Labour are underdogs... that the SNP won the equivilant Scottish Parliament seat (Central Fife - 80% of the seat) and managing expectations well. He stopped short of saying that the SNP were "incumbent"-esq but not by much...

23.10
David Mundell comes out with a bombshell on BBC coverage. He tells us that the Tories have NOT won Glenrothes. Let me repeat that... the Tories have NOT won...

23.00
Is it just me, or does anyone else think that the result of the US Presidential election will probably impact more directly on the lives of constituents in Glenrothes than the new MP for the area?

22.54
Just to be perfectly fair, here's a list of the candidates fighting the by-election in Glenrothes:

Morag Balfour, Scottish Socialists
Maurice Golden, Conservative
Peter Grant, SNP
Lindsay Roy, Labour
Kris Seunarine, UKIP
Harry Wills, Liberal Democrats
Louise McLeary, Solidarity
Jim Parker, Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party

22.50
I think I'm right in saying that the by-election for the Forth Ward of the City of Edinburgh Council was also held today. Perhaps not as nationally interesting at Glenrothes, but maybe crucial for the power in Edinburgh. Labour defending the seat but if either the SNP or the Lib Dems win, it would give them a wee bit more breathing room at the City Chambers.

22.36
As my non-Tory Anon commentator points out, Brian Taylor suggests that the SNP may have sneaked it in a close vote - and points out that the Lib Dem vote may have crashed, thereby leaving the SNP to mop up the anti-Labour vote.

22.30
I'm hearing a bit of chat that both the Lib Dems and the Tories might lose their deposits... with the Tories pipping the Lib Dems for third. As I say, just a bit of chat - anyone know any different?

22.25
Anseo is blogging from the scene. He sounds pretty positive for the SNP. I know I called it a Labour win by 500 two weeks ago... but I think it might be even closer than that. And the SNP might just have done it. Thoughts?

22.18
Anyone have any early chat from Glenrothes? Anyone been there today (or previously?) and know what the chat is?

22.10
Polls have closed in Glenrothes. If you're at home and waiting for the coverage to start on TV, you can listen to some early chat on Radio Scotland. Wee plug for my PhD supervisor, who's acting as an "expert" on the show.


22.00 I said I'd start liveblogging about the by-election at around 10pm so here we go.


Read more...

Tuesday, 14 October 2008

Labour launch by-election campaign*

*according to the BBC

Bizarrely, this was only yesterday. The seat has been vacant since August 13 - that's almost 9 weeks ago.

What have Labour in Glenrothes been doing up until now?

Read more...

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