All things bright and bigoted

I don't think it is overstating yesterday's events to say that this might be the key point of the campaign thus far.  Sure, Nick Clegg's performance in the first Leaders' Debate earned him his place at the top table and spiked the Lib Dems poll numbers to make this a genuine 3-way tussle (and a genuine 4-way in Scotland).  But "Gordon's Gaffe", as it will be known for generations to come, is probably the point at which Labour's opportunity to turn the poll figures around ended for good.

Of course it was a private thought spoken aloud to an aide in a private moment. Of course no one was supposed to hear it.  And of course anyone can make a mistake, and I think the public does have some sympathy with that.  But the media storm that has ensued, the PM's reaction - on camera - when he heard what he'd said, his multiple apologies (45 minutes in Mrs Duffy's house!) and the fact that what the woman asked wasn't the least bit bigoted, merely a question that plenty of voters would like an answer to have turned this from private mistake to catastrophe for the PM.

Giving Gordon Brown his credit - he did appear absolutely mortified about what he'd said and the upset that he had caused.  And you can take into account the situation - a tough campaign trail, tough questions (though what appeared a pleasant conversation) and what he thought was a private moment.  But, ultimately, for a man who wants to return as PM, this was Bush league.  I'm not saying he shouldn't be allowed to have thoughts like this about voters.  Actually, maybe I am.  The politician who discounts what the electorate thinks of an issue as unimportant or bigoted... well, he doesn't deserve to represent the people who he claims to champion.  And - according to Iain Dale - Brown has refused to meet the people in his own constituency, ignoring EIGHT hustings invitations.  Perhaps this new "meet the people" strategy doesn't stretch to getting himself re-elected.

So - probably the best day of the campaign for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, and they really didn't do much at all.  They certainly got very little coverage for it anyway - and they'll be happy enough with that.  My problem though, and its one I've had for a long time, is that candidates are not doing enough to convince people to vote for them.  Brown's gaffe yesterday underlines this point in more ways than one.  In engaging with the public in the way he has, all he has done is give the electorate one more reason not to vote for his party... or not to vote at all.  And many more are leaning towards the latter.

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What if Labour win?

Recent conjecture surrounding the upcoming General Election has centred upon two possible outcomes: A Conservative victory large enough to allow them to govern fairly comfortably or a Hung Parliament. But there is a third possible outcome, however unlikely it may seem:

A Labour win.

Think about that for a second. Speculation regarding the end of the recession, the end of Brown, the SNP in the Scottish Government and their referendum - everything making the news at the moment - all that is predicated on the expected outcome, a Conservative victory and David Cameron as Prime Minister. But what if - IF - Labour can squeeze out a win?

Would Gordon stay on? What about the doubters & plotters? Would Harriet make her move? What about the Miliband of brothers (D-edward to some)? Would they continue to back Brown's leadership? And how long would a fourth term in office last for Labour? A few months or a full term?

Think of the knock-on effect though. Brown's plan to fight the recession would have to be enacted. The Calman proposals too, would have to be worked out. Jim Murphy (assuming he retained his seat) would probably remain as Scottish Secretary, strengthening his position (and weakening Iain Gray's). The SNP - well, they probably don't care either way. A weak Labour government with a small majority would be just as good for their ends as a strong Conservative government with no mandate in Scotland. Would a referendum pass? Who knows.

The big question for me though is how Labour would react to returning to power. All signs at the moment point to the party preparing for a defeat - and if they don't get trounced that would be a victory in itself. But should they confound expectations - with an unpopular leader - would the poisonous plotting disappear or come to the fore?

Many questions, with no real answer at the moment. The coming election should provide a few answers, and perhaps a few more questions. Whenever it is held.

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Simon Cowell's dream contestant

The lighter side of Gordon Brown... by Rory Bremner:

Hat-tip Subrosa.

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Another one bites the dust

Geoff Hoon becomes the third Cabinet Minister to resign in the last 24 hours. He has stood down as Transport Secretary but has not backed James Purnell in telling the PM to go.

How much worse can Brown's day get?

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And then there were four...

BBC reports Defence Secretary John Hutton has resigned from Gordon Brown's Cabinet... despite saying he fully supports Gordon Brown as PM.

Four days, four resignations.

It's not all bad news though. Jim Murphy says he's happy to stay on as Secretary of State for Scotland.

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Things can only get better... right?

It's all going wrong for poor Gordon, isn't it?

Not only have three high profile Cabinet ministers resigned in the last three days leaving Gordon Brown without a Home Secretary, a Communities Minister and now a Work and Pensions Minister the third of those - James Purnell - has signalled the start of open season on the PM by publicly telling him to resign.

Alan Johnson, while being as loyal as he can in public, in private he is apparently gathering a team together to campaign for the leadership if when the PM resigns.

The BBC are reporting the Brown will shuffle his Cabinet today (as if he has a choice really) but that Alistair Darling will remain his Chancellor after refusing to move elsewhere in the Cabinet. Added to the two "big hitters" from Blair's Cabinet that refused to take up positions in the Brown's Cabinet, Darling's refusal to go emphasises the weak position Brown now finds himself in.

Added to that, as of 9am this morning, with three council results in, Labour have already lost 23 councillors and couldn't muster a single one (from the SIXTY SIX on offer) in the new Central Bedfordshire unitary authority.

With a lot more council announcements plus the European poll result on Sunday, things are going to get a whole lot worse... before they start getting better.

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The moral of the story

Just read this "joke" on Labourlist. Thought it rather appropriate for today:

"While on his morning walk, Prime Minister Gordon Brown falls over, has a heart attack and dies . So his soul arrives in Heaven and he is met by Saint Peter at the Pearly Gates.

"Welcome to Heaven," says Saint Peter, “I would love to admit you straight away but under our new ‘HEAVEN CHOICES’ policy designed to empower you, the deceased, you have to spend one day in Hell and one day in Heaven. Then you must choose where you'll live for eternity."

"But I've already made up my mind. I want to be in Heaven," replies Brown. "I'm sorry... But we have our rules and performance targets," Peter interjects. And, with that, St. Peter escorts him to an elevator and he goes down, down, down ... all the way to Hell.

When the doors open Gordon is amazed. He finds himself in the middle of a lush golf course. The sun is shining in a cloudless sky. The temperature is a perfect 22 degrees. In the distance is a beautiful club-house. Standing in front of it is Harold Wilson and thousands of other Socialists - John Smith, Michael Foot, Jim Callaghan, etc. Everyone laughing, happy, and casually but expensively dressed. They greet him and reminisce about the good times they had. They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster and caviar. The Devil himself comes up to Brown with a frosty drink, "Have a tequila and relax, Gord!"

They are having such a great time that, before he realises it, it's time to go. Everyone gives him a big hug and waves as Brown steps on the elevator and heads upward.

When the elevator door reopens, he is in Heaven again and Saint Peter is waiting for him. "Now it's time to visit Heaven," the old man says, opening the gate. So for 24 hours Brown is made to hang out with a bunch of honest, good-natured people who enjoy each other's company, talk about things other than money and treat each other decently. No fancy country clubs here and, while the food tastes great, it's not caviar or lobster.

The day done, Saint Peter returns and says, "Well, you've spent a day in Hell and a day in Heaven. Now choose where you want to live for Eternity.”

Brown reflects for a minute... Then answers, "Well, I would never have thought I'd say this - I mean, Heaven has been delightful and all but I really think I belong in Hell with my friends and former colleagues."

So Saint Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down, all the way to Hell.

The doors of the elevator open and he finds himself in the middle of a bare, toxic industrial wasteland. He is horrified to see all of his friends, dressed in rags and chained together, picking up the roadside rubbish and putting it into black plastic bags. They are groaning and moaning in pain, faces and hands black with grime.

The Devil comes over to Brown and puts an arm around his shoulder." I don't understand," stammers a shocked Brown, "Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and a club-house and we ate lobster and caviar and drank tequila. We lazed around and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and everybody looks miserable!"

The Devil looks at him, smiles slyly and purrs, "Ah but yesterday we were campaigning; today you voted for us!""

Appropriate, don't you think?

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Brown in bother

The "Blogfather" is reporting that, in a week of resignation after resignation, a fairly disastrous PMQs yesterday and a poll showing Labour in third for today's European election, some more bad news for the "embattled" PM.

According to Iain Dale, Gordon Brown is trying to put together a new Cabinet (I wonder if he is struggling with the pictorial instructions a la Ikea?) with some big hitters of the Blair era. Unfortunately for him, none of them want to play ball.

He apparently interviewed Celtic chairman John Reid for the vacant Home Secretary position last night and asked him to be the new Home Sec. Reid apparently refused. Then told by Brown that he must support him, Reid's response was:

"No I don't. I have to support my country and my party, and that means you have to stand down."

Ouch. I mean, if that is an accurate representation of the conversation, then Brown's time must surely be at an end. I'm expecting a resignation any time soon.

Interestingly though, I love Alan Johnson's quote defending the PM:

"He is doing the job and there is absolutely no one who could do that job better."

Right. So, when the guy is forced out - which he inevitably will be - Johnson won't be a front-runner for the position? I mean, he couldn't possibly "do that job better," could he?

There's a bad moon rising...

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Speaker: Sorry... but that's it.

Obviously I gave him more credit than I should have.

What a farcical scene in the House of Commons. His statement was fine... but he let Members walk all over him with Points of Order which turned into a bash-the-Speaker-athon. MP after MP lined up to kick him, and he didn't get it. He's planning a meeting with party leaders to solve the crisis but doesn't realise that he has lost the confidence of MPs.

We need the debate, and we need it now. His time is over.

He's passed the buck to the PM to call the motion. Gordon Brown might want him to stay, but he's in a tough situation. It's either effectively sack the Speaker or call an election.

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Gordon Brown: by the numbers

Some numbers for you:

24,278

• Number of people who voted for James Gordon Brown to become MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath in 2005.

0

• Number of people who voted for James Gordon Brown to become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2007.

43,536 (and counting)

• Number of people who have signed a petition on the Number 10 website calling for James Gordon Brown to resign.

Funny how a guy who made his name as a prudent Chancellor can't tell when his number is up.

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The vultures are circling...

I wasn't born the last time Labour lost power in a UK General Election, remembering which seems to be all the rage at the moment - given this year marks the 30th anniversary of the 1979 Election that brought Margaret Thatcher to power.

I do, however, have a vague recollection of a November day in 1990 when Margaret Thatcher's time in office expired and she resigned as Prime Minister to be replaced by John Major. I say vague - I was six. I remember much more about the 1990 FIFA World Cup in Italy, but that is another story.

As a student of politics though, I've read a number of accounts of Thatcher's downfall. You can watch a three-part documentary on her downfall on YouTube as well. Its an interesting watch.

I was thinking about how that situation parallels with the current one. While Gordon Brown has managed to keep his Cabinet together (for now) backbench MPs are queueing up to kick the government.

Charles Clarke said "There have been things that have been done recently which have made me feel ashamed to be a Labour Member of Parliament."

Stephen Byers, David Blunkett, Tony Blair and others have lined up in opposition to policies recently delivered by the Brown Government. An un-named backbencher with a marginal seat spoke out too - "The man has lost his authority – he's had a charisma bypass."

While no one at Cabinet or sub-Cabinet level has yet spoken out, the knives are out and a leadership challenge looks inevitable. The only question is who will it be?

Michael Portillo says it well in the first part of that piece:

"Nothing is more dangerous than a panicking backbencher."

Quite

UPDATE: The Telegraph says Cabinet Ministers are starting to question the PM, that he's losing control of MPs. One went as far as saying "It's all so reminicent of the last months of John Major. So maybe I got the "the end is nigh" stuff right... I just picked the wrong Tory downfall as my evidence...

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Are Labour on the verge of civil war?

This Telegraph piece seems to suggest so.

According to The Telegraph:

• Former PM Tony Blair says the 50p tax rate announced in Chancellor Alistair Darling's budget is a "terrible mistake."
  
  
• Blair would have CUT taxes not increased them.
  
  
• "New Labourites" believe the move has cost Labour any chance of winning the next election.
  
  
• Insiders want a new leader... and an election.
  
  
• Party discipline is to be tightened in coming weeks amid fears of MPs speaking out against the PM and a challenge to Brown's leadership.

Things looking a wee bit grim for New Labour then.

Oh, and by the way, if you want to add your name to the Number 10 petition calling on Gordon Brown to resign, you can do so here. I expect you'll find a couple of Labour MPs have signed up by the end of the week...

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No election this year?

When I was writing my 2009 predictions (I'm not doing too well so far - though I did call 3 changes on the Scottish Government benches, as well as a struggle to pass the budget) I bit the bullet and plumped for an election this year. I thought - correctly, as it has turned out - that Gordon Brown's handling of the economy would shrink Tory poll leads and that he'd go for an election in June as a result of Labour's less than disastrous showing in English Council Elections in May.

Now we are only in April, but the PM has apparently ruled out calling a snap election, saying:

"I am not going to get into talk about dates."

"Our first priority is jobs, it's homes and it's businesses. We have got to show people how we can take the country through this difficulty."

"I think if you were a citizen of Britain looking at what's happening in the economy you would want our first priority to be exactly what it is."

That, according to The Scotsman, equates with the following headline

"Brown rejects snap election despite Labour's G20 'bounce'"

Hang on a minute though. Is there anything in what he says that explicitly rules out an election? Because I can't see it. He said he's not going to talk about dates. Which means not that he is not considering an election, merely that he is not going public with these considerations at the moment.

And why would he? Labour's position in Westminster polls has improved markedly over the last few months. And the latest YouGov (post G20) poll has them within 7 points of the Tories:

CON 41%
LAB 34%
LD 16%

A far cry from the days of 20-point Tory leads. Now instead of facing down the barrel of a huge defeat, we are probably looking at the prospect of a hung-parliament while if Labour can claw back another couple of points they might even manage to scrape into government for a fourth term.

Far better for Brown to be in with a fighting chance of forming a government after the election than have a small band of MPs to oppose a massive Tory government.

I'm keeping my neck on the line and going with a 2009 election. I think he may go with it on the same day as the European election - though if the polls continue to swing Labour's way, he may hold out until September.

Anyone agree?

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Brown backs self-determination

Gordon Brown quote:

"The essential principle has always been that the islanders should determine the issue of sovereignty for themselves and, let us be clear, our first priority will always be the needs and wishes of the islanders."

He was, of course, referring to the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands.

A noble principle that though, allowing people to determine the issue of sovereignty for themselves.

I wonder if when he has passed on that principle to the LOLITSP. No, I don't think so either.

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President Obama on the Jay Leno Show

Some clips of US President on the Jay Leno Show.

Best quote "In Washington, it's a little bit like American Idol, except that everyone is Simon Cowell."

Think Gordon Brown could do the same... and appear on This Morning with Fern & Phil?

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Honda, not Brown, saves the world

According to Top Gear anyway.

Apparently Honda have developed a new car... which runs on compressed hydrogen. It emits only water, and costs about the same as petrol to fill. Of course, it is only available in California at the moment.

Quote Jeremy Clarkson:

"While everyone was worrying about Honda pulling out of Formula One, Honda has actually saved the world."

Of course, some would argue pulling out of Formula One did just as much to save the world...

And yes, before anyone else suggests so... I probably did watch too much TV this weekend.

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Not tonight Darling, I've got a(nother) headache...

I'm trying to get a handle on this economic situation, but as has probably been painfully obvious to you dear reader, I'm struggling to work out what's going on. I'm recounting what has happened over the last year - that I can remember anyway (with the help of the BBC):

• First (arguably) it was Northern Rock, whose collapse led the Chancellor Alistair Darling to bail it out to the tune of £25BN.
  
  
• Then Bradford & Bingley post losses of over £25m for the the six months to June 2008.
  
  
• Fast forward to August and Darling wakes up to the crisis - openly stating that the UK is in its "worst economic crisis in 60 years." To help out - and try to stimulate the housing market - the Treasury raises the threshold for stamp duty to £175,000. But the help barely registers. Bank of England holds interest rates at 5% in September.
  
  
• Then HBOS takes a nosedive, and, despite this BBC report from September, continues to negotiate a solution.
  
  
• Bradford and Bingley is taken under the government wing and nationalised in late September, with part of its operation sold to Santander.
  
  
• The PM - rather than the Chancellor - announces that a guarantee on savings will be raised to £50,000.
  
  
• Darling & Brown then announce a £37BN bailout for three UK banks - RBS, Lloyds TSB & HBOS. Stabilises RBS share price which had fallen dramatically.
  
  
• Unemployment rises to 1.79 million in October 2008, while the Bank of England cuts interest rates from 4.5% to 3% in early November.
  
  
• Which takes us up to this week, and the Chancellor's decision to cut VAT by 2.5%. Oh yeah, and now Woolworths have gone into administration, with MFI likely to join them shortly.

Now I know that none of this has happened in a vacuum, and that the global economy has gone, for want of a better phrase, tits up. And I'm not an economist so I don't fully understand the whole situation. But here's how it appears to me.

The government has acted when it feels like it has been forced - the bank bailout(s), the interest rate cut (which is technically independent, but probably lent on slightly by the PM and Chancellor), the savings guarantee and the VAT cut.

That action, it seems to me, is reluctant. I think they want the market to sort itself out. But the problem is, it doesn't seem to be doing so. Or, it does, but not in a way that helps the economy get out of a recession.

The problem, I think, is a lack of trust. The consumer doesn't trust the government not to raise taxes again, so they save instead of spend. The government doesn't trust the market to fix itself so it is interfering. And the banks, well, they don't trust anyone - let alone other banks - and so have dramatically cut their lending.

Seems like if we can learn to trust again, we can learn to love again... no wait, I've stumbled into a boy band single or something. Think the point is, trust matters. And I'm not convinced that I trust chancellor to be doing what is right just now

And I think a lot of people think the same way.

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He's back!

I'm picturing Gordon on the phone to Tony asking what he'd do in this mess?

"I'm telling you Gordon, Mandy is your best bet. He came and he gave without taking"

"But you sent him away."

The public:

"OH MANDY!"

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Shuffling his deck - or not

Gordon Brown is to conduct a "mini-reshuffle" to his Cabinet - not the wholesale changes many were expecting. This is due to the ongoing financial crisis - where, apparently, some consistency is required to get us out of this mess.

So, those rumours that he was going to offer "The Man with the Plan" a position look somewhat off the mark...

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R. Kelly - The World's Greatest

Ruth Kelly has resigned from Gordon Brown's cabinet.

Just when you think you've turned a corner...

As Scottish Tory Boy mentions - is it time for Tom Harris MP to step up to the plate? It may, after all, be his only chance for a Cabinet position before 15 years of Tory government.

It may also be an opportunity for Gordon to stick someone in his Cabinet that can actually do a job. And, you know, unlike some colleagues, not brief against him.

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