20 SNP MPs? Don't think so

A few days ago - prior to the SNP conference starting - Jeff made a list of potential gains for the SNP in the coming Westminster election. No doubt over the course of the weekend he drank in more optimism from the gathered masses in Inverness and feels pretty good about his prediction. Makes sense - conferences are meant to recharge the batteries, invigorate the activists to campaign and deliver some seats. Even so, I still think his list may be somewhat... optimistic. Saying that, I'd love to have some of what he is drinking!

Jeff's list of potential SNP gains (in order of ascending swing required to win):

Ochil & South Perthshire (0.75%)

Livingston (4.55% - from by-election)

Dundee West (7.3%)

Kilmarnock & Loudoun (9.8%)

Argyll & Bute (10.55%)

Aberdeen North (10.6%)

Edinburgh East (11.5%)

Stirling (11.7%)

Edinburgh North & Leith (12%)

Linlithgow & Falkirk East (12.1%)

East Lothian (14.2%)

Gordon (14.5%)

Falkirk (14.75%)

East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow (15.4%)

Plus an extra shopping list of:

North Ayrshire & Arran (12.95%)

Paisley & Renfrewshire North (13.45%)

Midlothian (14.25%)

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East (14.8%)

Inverclyde (15.55%)

Glasgow Central (16.7%)

Anyway, I'm not sure what kind of national swing Jeff's predictions are based on, but by my reckoning only something in the range of a massive 14% LAB-SNP national swing would see some of the higher ones on the list go. And given the UK level is a straight fight between Labour and the Tories, I'd expect the latter to muscle in a wee bit on the fight in Scotland, grabbing a wee bit of the swing from Labour. In short, I can only see something like a 7 or 8% national swing at absolute best to the SNP from Labour. That isn't to say they won't win a couple of other seats which require a larger swing (as happened in 2007 - they failed to win Cumbernauld on a minor swing but grabbed Gordon & Stirling on massive swings) but I don't expect the "extra list" to come into play... or indeed much of the first list beyond Argyll & Bute. Saying that, there may be a couple of surprises (Gordon?).

Now the main criticism of my analysis here is that the swings are based on an election which will be five years old by the time the election comes round. And that is fair - we've had a Holyrood (2007) and European (2009) election since then, in both of which the SNP have polled remarkably well. Indeed, if the we transpose the European Parliament vote onto the Westminster constituencies, the SNP would end up winning more seats than Labour - from memory, everything north of Stirling, most of Edinburgh and some surprising bits of Glasgow (potentially goodbye to Glasgow South's blogging MP). So yes, there is potential for some shocks - and some big SNP gains.

But I'll return to the reason I'm suggesting some of them are not going to fall to the SNP, and that is that it is a Westminster election. While the party appear to be winning round people in Scotland - at least for Holyrood elections - this is their first real test of popularity as a Government. And I think they'll do fine - just perhaps not quite as well as some people think they will.

Coming off the fence, I'd give them 6 of 7 the seats they currently hold (minus Glasgow East) plus 6 or 7 more... but no more than 13 SNP MPs after the election. And here's a tip - the constituency where they need less than a 1% swing from Labour may be more difficult than you'd think. If Ochil and South Perthshire slips from Labour control, it might just be a Tory Gain rather than a Nat MP for the constituency.

Thoughts?

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In praise of Malcolm Chisholm MSP

I think Jeff has beaten me to the punch on this post, but I've written it now so I'm posting it too!

As a politico geek sado-masochist I spent yesterday morning watching the full Scottish Parliamentary debate on the release of Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi.

I expected the worst - petty political point-scoring on an issue that pretty much divides Scotland. And in some contributions I got what I expected. The party leaders - even and especially the First Minister - were at it. Richard Baker looked like a child at a grown-up party, knowing he was out of his depth. Sandra White couldn't resist sticking the needle in. Christine Grahame misjudged her audience in her attempts to persue the issue of whether al-Megrahi was even guilty. And Elaine Murray emphasised that my previous post on the matter was right on the money. The sheer emotion and anger with which she spoke evidence enough that emotion must be removed from the equation if a sober and rational decision on a delicate issue such as this can be taken.

But then, as ever on occasions such as this, there are those who stand out, who recognise the gravity of the situation and step up to the challenge. For me, several of the contributions yesterday merit mention on this score. Green leader Patrick Harvie was eloquent, reasoned and sincere. Lib Dem Justice Spokesman Robert Brown was measured and assured, Michael McMahon and David McLetchie focused. The two doctors, Ian McKee and Richard Simpson, were informative on their specialist areas. All provided reasonable points, defending their party line on the decision.

And then there was Malcolm Chisholm. He stood up and spoke from his conscience. He agreed with the decision and suggested (with polling figures to hand) that around 35% of his Labour colleagues (though not necessarily those in the parliament) did too. He told the chamber that he accepted the need for compassion in this case, accepted that the decision was not taken lightly and that, in his mind, it was the right one. And then he turned on his party, telling the chamber that he would vote with the government in the evening and that he thought the vote should be free from party whipping. In the event, he was the only MSP who broke ranks as the (heavily amended) government motion was carried by 73 (Lab/ LD/ Con) votes to 50 (SNP/ Green/ Chisholm) with one abstention (Margo).

I should point out that I have a lot of time for Malcolm Chisholm (and not just because of his rather excellent first name). In 2006, when he resigned as Communities Minister (in Jack McConnell's Scottish Executive) over the issue of Trident replacement, I wrote to him commending him for having the courage of his convictions and voting with his conscience rather than his party. He wrote back, thanking me for what was one of the few emails he'd received in support and suggesting that he hoped others would start listening to "experts" like me (I was a Masters student in Terrorism and International Relations at the time). So the man has a history of doing what he thinks right - even if that is at odds with his party. And yesterday was no different.

But I had a wee thought about his future as an MSP. Of course, I don't think he's in any danger of being deselected by Labour - don't be ridiculous. But a wee suggestion. By the time of the next Scottish Parliament election in May 2011, Malcolm Chisholm will be 62. Now, that is not old for an MSP. But he is defending a majority of just 2,500 in Edinburgh North & Leith. Which, as we know from the European election, is an incredibly tight seat, with five parties separated by only 1,000 votes (and indeed, in that election, Labour knocked down to second). According to his website, he also holds surgeries every Satuday (more than most MSPs). That's a busy schedule for an MSP over 60.

No, I'm wondering whether Malcolm Chisholm might decide that three terms as an MSP for Edinburgh North & Leith might just be enough for him. I mean, might yesterday's defiance of the party line have signalled his intention - that he no longer sees himself needing to conform to the party line? It's just a thought - and it seems to fit. Though I'd suggest that, given the constituency may well provide some excitement on election night, and that he is a weel kent face around the constituency, Labour may be loathe to allow him to retire. In saying that, there'd be no shortage of Labour candidates putting their name forward for the seat I'd wager - Lesley Hinds, Gordon Munro, Ewan Aitken, perhaps even the blogosphere's Kezia Dugdale. So, I guess, watch this space.

In the meantime, praise be to Malcolm Chisholm, the only MSP brave enough to break party lines yesterday. Parliament (and Scotland) needs free thinkers like him.

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Does Holyrood matter to the Tories?

I learn from Andrew Reeves and Tory Bear that John Lamont MSP has been selected to replace Chris Walker as the Conservative candidate for the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Westminster constituency.

He becomes the second Conservative MSP to seek a House of Commons seat at the next election - Alex Johnstone being the other, in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine.

I would suggest that John Lamont may have a better chance given that he overturned the Lib Dem majority in the corresponding seat in the Scottish Parliament while Alex Johnstone lost out to the SNP's Andrew Welsh by a considerable margin in Angus.

Both stood as candidates in the 2005 UK election in these respective seats - Johnstone dropping the Tory vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine by 2% while Lamont increased the Tory vote in BRS by nearly 7% (and took advantage of that by winning the Scottish Parliament seat in 2007) albeit those figures are notional given boundary changes.

Couple of questions though. What does this say about the Conservative party's commitment to the Scottish Parliament when 2 of their 16 MSPs - that's 12.5% of their representation in the chamber - want to turn their back on Holyrood for a life of moat and duck-pond allowances at Westminster? And what does this say about Annabel Goldie's leadership - that she could potentially lose two key members of her parliamentary group because central office thinks they'd have a better opportunity to win UK constituencies with MSPs as candidates?

Also, Annabel Goldie has been fairly vocal in shouting down Alex Salmond as a dual mandate MP MSP, despite the First Minister's commitment to stand down at the next UK election. If either of the two Tory MSPs were to win a House of Commons seat, where would this leave her ability to challenge Salmond on this?

The bottom line is, I think, that all hands are on deck for the Tories. They are taking nothing for granted despite polls placing them well into 40+% UK-wide. The disproportionate FPTP system means that, even if they dominated the vote (and won over 45%) they still may only have a Commons majority of 20 or 30 seats. Which means that any seats that they can gain in Scotland to add to David Mundell's sole seat at the moment is a much-needed bonus for David Cameron. Selecting well-known, experienced candidates is a means to that end and if it undercuts the Tories in the Scottish Parliament, what does that matter? I mean it's only Scotland, right Maggie?

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What's in a name?

I had a wee thought the other day when I read the candidate list for Gordon constituency for the next Westminster election.

Despite being 65 next year, current MP for Gordon Malcolm Bruce is expected to stand again for the seat for the Lib Dems. The Scottish blogosphere's Richard Thomson is the SNP candidate for the constituency while the Conservative candidate will be 21-year-old Ross Thomson, a fourth year politics student. Labour's candidate is Barney Crockett, and Aberdeen councillor (EDIT - Thanks to Iain in the comments).

So, as candidate names on ballot papers are listed alphabetically (and without knowing the Labour candidate's name at the moment) the ballot paper will look like this:

BRUCE, Malcolm (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
CROCKET, BARNEY (Scottish Labour Party)
THOMSON, Richard (Scottish National Party)
THOMSON, Ross (Scottish Conservative Party)

You may see where I'm going with this.

While the 2005 result was an easy hold (majority, 11,026) for the Lib Dems, the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary election saw Alex Salmond win the seat for the SNP, with a majority of over 2,000. Basically what I'm saying is that the SNP, from 4th in 2005 (and 13,000 votes behind the Lib Dems) are now within shouting distance of taking the seat - albeit with all kinds of caveats about different elections (Holyrood v Westminster, boundaries, the Salmond effect etc etc). So what impact will two candidates with the same surname (and first initial) have on the outcome here?

Well, like I said, the Lib Dems are still odds-on favourites to win the seat I suspect - and their vote would likely be unaffected by this. But we only have to look at the result from the Glasgow East by-election to see that it could have an impact.

John Mason won the seat with 11,277 votes to Margaret Curran's 10,912 - a majority of 365. Frances Curran, the Scottish Socialist Party candidate, polled 555 votes - 190 more than that majority. Now obviously there were many factors why the SNP (and John Mason) won that seat but I think - if we're being honest - there may have been some votes intended for M Curran that actually went to F Curran - and the first of the two "Curran" names on the ballot paper. Maybe not enough to swing the election the SNP's way... but then again, how much credit do you want to give voters when they couldn't handle two different electoral systems on the same day?

What's my point? Only this... if you are a voter in Gordon, look closely where you put your "X" in the next election. If you don't. you might end up voting for someone you didn't really intend to.

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Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill

2005 result:
Thomas Clarke LAB – 24,725 (64.5%)
Duncan Ross SNP – 5,206 (13.6%)
Rodney Ackland LD – 4,605 (12.0%)
Lindsay Paterson CON – 2,775 (7.2%)
LABOUR HOLD
Majority: 19,519 over SNP

Candidates:
Tom Clarke MP (LAB)
Fiona Houston (CON)

Swing required: SNP – 24.45% LD – 26.25% CON – 28.65%

Council area: -
North Lanarkshire (LAB majority)

Scottish Parliament: -
Coatbridge & Chryston: LAB (majority - 4,510 over SNP)
Hamilton North & Belshill: LAB (majority - 4,865 over SNP)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth: LAB (majority – 2,079 over SNP)

Electorate: 67,647
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Coatbridge & Chryston: 47,990 (70.9%)
Hamilton North & Belshill: 19,124 (28.3%)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth: 533 (0.8%)

Prediction:
With a huge majority, Tom Clarke should be returned with relative ease for Labour. Don’t expect the other parties to flood this constituency with activists – Clarke’s majority of 19,519 is the largest numerical majority of any MP currently serving at Westminster. Barring any unforeseen difficulties, this is a relatively straightforward constituency to call.

LAB HOLD

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Central Ayrshire

2005 result:
Brian Donohoe LAB – 19,905 (46.4%)
Garry Clark CON – 9,482 (22.1%)
Iain Kennedy LD – 6,881 (16.1%)
Jahangir Hanif SNP – 4,969 (11.6%)
LABOUR HOLD
Majority: 10,423 over CON

Candidates:
Brian Donohoe MP (LAB)
Phil Gallie (CON)

Swing required: CON – 12.15% LD – 15.15% SNP – 17.4%

Council area: -
North Ayrshire (LAB minority)
South Ayrshire (CON minority)

Scottish Parliament: -
Ayr: CON (majority - 3,906 over LAB)
Cunninghame South: LAB (majority – 2,168 over SNP)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley: LAB (majority - 3,986 over SNP)

Electorate: 69,161
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Ayr: 33,544 (48.5%)
Cunninghame South: 32,760 (47.4%)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley: (4.1%)

Prediction:
Despite the Tories holding onto Ayr in the Scottish Parliament, this remains very much Labour heartland territory. With a majority of over 10,000, Brian Donohoe should be safely returned for Labour in a straight Labour-Tory fight. Phil Gallie will give him a decent run for it, though he won’t be returning to Westminster. He should slash the Labour majority, possibly in half, and give the Tories hope for winning the seat next time out – though it is a big Labour area. If the Lib Dems are having a particularly bad night, look out for them dropping to fourth while the SNP shore up their vote on the back of an increased national share of the vote. LAB HOLD

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Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2005 result:
John Thurso LD – 13,957 (50.5%)
Alan Jamieson LAB – 5,789 (20.9%)
Karen Shirron SNP – 3,686 (13.3%)
Angus Ross CON – 2,835 (10.2%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD
Majority: 8,168 over LAB

Candidates:
John Thurso MP (LD)
John MacKay (LAB)

Swing required: LAB – 14.8 % SNP – 18.6% CON – 20.15%

Council area: -
Highland (Other [IND GROUP]-LD-LAB coalition) (previously OTH-SNP – June 08)

Scottish Parliament: -
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross: LD (majority - 2,323 over SNP)
Ross, Skye & Inverness West: LD (majority - 3,486 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross AND Ross, Skye & Inverness West)

Electorate: 46,533
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross: 40,731 (87.5%)
Ross, Skye & Inverness West: 5,802 (12.5%)

Prediction:
A relatively straightforward hold for the Lib Dems in what should be considered safe territory for them. Although the Lib Dem vote will be squeezed nationally due to SNP-LAB and CON-LAB tactical voting, Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross should remain an intact LD stronghold. Expect the majority to be slashed to around 4,500-5,000, although who the main beneficiary will be is difficult to tell. I think that Labour voters might, in realising they won't win the seat, transfer votes to the Lib Dems - to stop the SNP winning - thereby losing second place to the Nats, who will shore up their regional performance at the SP election. An easy-ish LID DEM HOLD

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Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

2005 result:
Michael Moore LD – 18,993 (41.8%)
John Lamont CON – 13,092 (28.85)
Sam Held LAB – 7,206 (15.9%)
Aileen Orr SNP – 3,885 (8.6%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD
Majority: 5,901 over CON

Candidates:

Michael Moore MP (LD)
Chris Walker* John Lamont MSP (CON)
Paul Wheelhouse (SNP)

*It appears that Chris Walker was asked/forced/coerced into standing down as the candidate in favour of MSP John Lamont, who won the second selection fairly easily...

Swing required: CON – 6.48% LAB – 12.95 % SNP – 16.6%

Council area: -
Scottish Borders (Other-CON-LD coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Roxburgh & Berwickshire: CON (majority - 1,985 over LD – GAIN FROM LD)
Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale: LD (majority - 598 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale)

Electorate: 72,430
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Roxburgh & Berwickshire: 44,846 (61.9%)
Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale: 27, 584 (38.1%)

Prediction:
A two-horse race between the incumbent Lib Dem Michael Moore and Conservative challenger Chris Walker, Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk could prove to be one of the tightest fought seats in Scotland. High on the Conservatives list of targets, the work done by John Lamont in taking part of the Scottish Parliamentary equivalent should stand the party in good stead here. Another factor in play is the Borders Council is run by a coalition between the two main contenders. A 6.5% swing is all that is required for the Tories to win here, and I think if it is a good night for them nationally, that is managable. Expect fireworks, and afterwards, a new Conservative MP for the constituency. CON GAIN

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Banff & Buchan

2005 result:
Alex Salmond SNP – 19,044 (51.2%)
Sandy Wallace CON – 7,207 (19.4%)
Eleanor Anderson LD – 4,952 (13.3%)
Rami Okasha LAB – 4,476 (12.0%)
SNP HOLD
Majority: 11,837 over CON

Candidates:
Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)

Swing required: CON – 15.9% LD – 18.95% LAB – 19.6%

Council area: -
Aberdeenshire (LD-CON coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Banff & Buchan: SNP (majority - 10,530 over CON)
Gordon: SNP SNP (majority - 2,062 over LD – GAIN FROM LD)

Electorate: 65,970
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Banff & Buchan: 57,113 (86.6%)
Gordon: 8,857 (13.4%)

Prediction:
Despite First Minister Alex Salmond stepping aside to concentrate on his Scottish Parliament duties, expect the seat to remain with the SNP – as it has since 1987 when (a much younger and less portly) Alex Salmond was first elected to serve as MP for the constituency. Conservatives to show well in second, probably increasing their share of the vote slightly, while the Lib Dems and Labour scrap for third. SNP HOLD

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ELCLP: Not black and white

The Sunday Herald has more on the Anne Moffat/ East Lothian Constituency Labour Party mess here.

It seems Iain Gray has a spot of bother in his back yard - and now has to choose between the constituency party - who welcomed him into East Lothian and got him re-elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2007 after he lost Edinburgh Pentlands in 2003 - and the MP for the respective Westminster constituency, Anne Moffat.

Looks like there's a lot more to come out in what is becoming a massive problem for Gray to deal with.

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Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2005 result:
Sandra Osborne LAB – 20,433 (45.4%)
Mark Jones CON – 10,436 (23.2%)
Colin Waugh LD – 6,341 (14.1%)
Charles Brodie SNP – 5,932 (13.2%)
LABOUR HOLD
Majority: 9,997 over CON

Candidates:
Sandra Osbourne MP (LAB)

Swing required: CON – 11.1% LD – 15.65% SNP – 16.1%

Council area: -
East Ayrshire (SNP minority)
South Ayrshire (CON minority)

Scottish Parliament: -
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley: LAB (majority - 3,986 over SNP)
Ayr: CON (majority - 3,906 over LAB)

Electorate: 74,159
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley: 51,504 (69.4%)
Ayr: 22,655 (30.6%)

Prediction:
Despite losing control of East Ayrshire council and 14 councillors across the two council areas, this is still Labour heartland territory. 2005’s boundary changes removed the previous marginality of the seat and upped Labour’s majority. Cumnock IS Labour territory, and while the Tories have some decent margins in bits of Ayr, the seat is much more Labour than it is Tory. With a majority of almost 10,000 votes and a swing of over 11% required for any party to get close, expect Sandra Osborne to hold onto the seat, albeit, again, on a reduced majority of about 4,500. LAB HOLD

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Argyll & Bute

2005 result:
Alan Reid LD – 15,786 (36.6%)
Jamie McGrigor CON – 10,150 (23.5%)
Carolyn Manson LAB – 9,696 (22.4%)
Isobel Strong SNP – 6,716 (15.5%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD
Majority: 5,636 over CON

Candidates:

Alan Reid MP (LD)
Carolyn Brodie* Cllr Gary Mulvaney (CON)
Mike MacKenzie (SNP)
* Carolyn Brodie stood down as candidate for CON in February 2008

Swing required: CON – 6.55% LAB – 7.1 % SNP – 10.55%

Council area: -
Argyll & Bute (Other-SNP coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Argyll & Bute: SNP (majority - 815 over LD - GAIN)
Dumbarton: LAB (majority - 1,611 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Dumbarton)

Electorate: 69,571
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Argyll & Bute: 49,839 (71.6%)
Dumbarton: 19,732 (28.4%)

Prediction:
The first of what could legitimately be classed “four-way marginals” if Scottish Parliament election results are taken into account. The SNP’s Jim Mather won the corresponding Holyrood seat from third while second to fourth places in the Westminster seat have shuffled constantly since 1992. The SNP’s presence on the Council plus as MSP in the area must make them favourites to become the main challenger, but whether that will be enough to oust Alan Reid remains to be seen. I think the Lib Dem vote will hold up here, and they’ll hold on by around 1,500 votes. LID DEM HOLD

UPDATE - My first instinct (when I wrote this two months ago!) was to retain this as a Lib Dem hold. However, I am swaying towards a LID DEM LOSS. Who wins it – whether CON or SNP – I’m still not sure. Depending on who has the better night, it could go either way, though I’d suggest the SNP are probably better placed to take the seat, based on 2007 Holyrood performance and the fact that 2005 was a low point. However, sources are telling me that it will be pretty tight, and that it is most likely one from three - LD, CON or SNP, with the Labour vote falling and (potentially) transferring to the SNP. Truth in this, I don't know. Depending who you talk to, you get a different read.

If you want a guess at the moment, aaaaargh... I'll go with the SNP having enough from Jim Mather's presence in the Scottish Government to win this. Though I'm not convinced... as I said before, the Lib Dems might have enough to hold on. For the moment though... SNP GAIN

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There may be trouble ahead...

...but while there's Moffat and money, some scandal, the suspension of a Constituency Labour Party and another election to come, Labour must face the music. And dance.

Okay, perhaps not the most catchy of tunes. But what is going on in East Lothian?! My ear to the ground tells me the BBC are reporting Labour's National Executive Committee have suspended the East Lothian Constituency party while a "full investigation of the local party and its affairs.

Not good news it would appear for Anne Moffat, Labour's MP for the area, who it would appear hasn't exactly made herself popular in the constituency who, in the past, has compared Alex Salmond to Hitler and hit the headlines previously for claiming £40,000 worth of travel expenses... in one year.

According to Brian Taylor, only 2 of the six branches in East Lothian backed her for automatic reselection, while three wanted an open selection process and the other, the largest branch, was divided. However, on the back of Trade Union affiliates' votes, she was reselected. The matter was referred to Labour's NEC who upheld the decision and has now suspended the branch.

Couple of things:

One - surely this makes an even bigger mockery of Labour's election process (which I highlighted during the leadership contest). Apparently Labour are all about hearing what the electorate wants to say... so why when their membership says something are they so keen to hush them up?

Secondly, this is Iain Gray's backyard. Well, not really... since he was MSP for Edinburgh Pentlands before that nasty Tory man stole his seat in 2003. This probably makes it difficult (but not impossible) for Labour to hold East Lothian in the next Westminster Election - and then what for the Gray Man of Scottish politics? If his seat goes orange, blue or yellow at Westminster, what are the chances of Gray himself getting back in at Holyrood in 2011? Bet I know one person who finds this story a mite interesting.

So... not a good day for Labour I guess.

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Angus

2005 result:
Michael Weir SNP – 12,840 (33.7%)
Sandy Bushby CON – 11,239 (29.5%)
Douglas Bradley LAB – 6,850 (18.0%)
Scott Rennie LD – 6,660 (17.5%)
SNP HOLD
Majority: 1,601 over CON

Candidates:
Michael Weir (SNP)
Alberto Costa (CON)

Swing required: CON – 2.1% LAB – 7.85% LD – 8.1%

Council area: -
Angus (“Angus Alliance” - CON-LD-LAB-IND coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Angus: SNP (majority - 8,243 over CON)
Tayside North: SNP (majority - 7,584 over CON)

Electorate: 64,591
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Angus: 35,969 (55.7%)
Tayside North: 28,622 (44.3%)

Prediction:
Since Andrew Welsh stood down from the Angus seat at Westminster to retain his seat in the Scottish Parliament the Conservatives have reduced what was a 10,000+ majority in 1997 to 1,600 in 2005. Mike Weir has been a popular MP and Andrew Welsh has increased his majority in the Scottish Parliament in the face of difficult competition in the shape of Alex Johnstone MSP, while in neighbouring Tayside North, local MSP John Swinney has worked miracles as Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth. The SNP also won 13 of the council’s 29 seats in the 2007 local government elections. The SNP managed to retain Angus in what was a poor night for them in 2005. If the Tories couldn’t win here then, how are they going to do so with the SNP running the Scottish Government and generally doing pretty well in opinion polls? Expect an all-out assault but an effort that will ultimately fall just short in a two-horse race. SNP HOLD

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Airdrie & Shotts

2005 result:
John Reid LAB – 19,568 (59%)
Malcolm Balfour SNP – 5,484 (16.5%)
Helen Watt LD – 3,792 (11.4%)
Stuart Cottis CON – 3,271 (9.9%)
Labour HOLD
Majority: 14,084 over SNP

Candidates:
John Reid (LAB) *
Ruth Whitfield (CON)
*John Reid announced in September 2007 that he would stand down at the next election

Swing required: SNP – 21.25% LD – 23.8% CON – 24.55%

Council area: -
North Lanarkshire (LAB)

Scottish Parliament: -
Airdrie & Shotts: LAB (majority - 1,446 over SNP)
Hamilton North & Belshill: LAB (majority - 4,865 over SNP)
Coatbridge & Chryston: LAB (majority - 4,510 over SNP)

Electorate: 63,309
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Airdrie & Shotts: 55,519 (87.6%)
Hamilton North & Belshill: 7,380 (11.7%)
Coatbridge & Chryston: 410 (0.7%)

Prediction:
Despite the retirement of sitting MP and former holder of multiple Cabinet positions John Reid – and the massive (15%) swing away from Labour in the corresponding seat in the Scottish Parliament – I cannot see the 22% swing required to take the seat away from Labour in their heartlands. Without John Reid standing however, expect the Labour candidate to be returned with a much lower majority of around 4,500. LAB HOLD

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