Predicting the unpredictable...

I mentioned this morning that I was working on a prediction for the 59 seats in Scotland come Friday morning.  So here we are - polling data, majorities, vague knowledge of candidates and local issues, and the occasional bit of blind guesswork has led me to this:

Labour - 34 seats

Lib Dems - 14 seats

SNP - 8 seats

Conservatives - 3 seats

Which, on the face of it, would keep each of the parties fairly happy.  Yes Labour will have lost 5 seats, but it wouldn't be the disaster they'd expected.  The Lib Dems, a few short weeks ago, were probably looking at a few losses, and less than 10 seats, so 14 would be a big win.  The SNP, though nowhere near their (ridiculously ambitious) 20 seat target, would be happy with adding a couple of seats to their 2005 total in an election they've been squeezed out of by parties and media alike.  And the Conservatives would be delighted with two Scottish colleagues for David Mundell, with the fears that they have over another wipeout in Scotland.

So, here's the few seats I see changing hands:

Aberdeen South - LD gain from LAB

Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk - CON gain from LD

Dumfries & Galloway - CON gain from LAB

Dundee West - SNP gain from LAB

Dunfermline & West Fife - LD gain from LAB (from 2005)

Edinburgh North & Leith - LD gain from LAB

Edinburgh South - LD gain from LAB

Glasgow East - LAB gain from SNP (from by-election)

Livingston - SNP gain from LAB

The remainder will, I think, stay the same as 2005.  This includes seats like Ochil & South Perthshire, with a small majority; the four-way marginal Argyll & Bute; Labour holding off Tory & SNP charges in Stirling and East Renfrewshire and what I think will be a stonking fight in East Lothian.  The "vogue" pick amongst my friends and colleagues is a Lib Dem win in Glasgow North, but I'm not sold on it.  

Of course, as I said before, this is entirely guesswork, and based on nothing more than an amateur psephologist's instincts.  Feel free to systematically de-construct this on the basis that you think I have no idea what I'm talking about because I'm not out talking to "the people".  And let me know what you think.  

But you know I'm right... right?

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An election you say?

Well, well, well.

It's finally been announced.  Four weeks tomorrow we (and I use "we" loosely - around half of us) will go to the polls and vote for a new MP and, consequently, a new government.  Those that want change will vote for someone different and hope they have enough support to be elected.  Those that want to stick with the devil they know will hope enough of their fellow voters agree with that sentiment.  Everyone has the choice to vote (even those in the 382 constituencies which are classed as "safe" seats - though in those cases the choice will probably be between the sitting MP and beating them).

Anyway, I know I haven't posted much - and probably won't improve that record over the next few weeks - but I thought I better put on record my predictions for May 6th.  So here goes.

David Cameron will become the next Prime Minister.  The Conservatives, despite all the recent chat about opinion polls tightening and hung parliaments, will end up with a majority of around 40.  The polls will tighten - but only in as far as cutting the Tory lead from the 10-11 points it currently is to 7 or 8.

In Scotland, the SNP will win the national share of the vote, but will get scant reward.  They'll make two gains - in either Dundee West, Livingston, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, Edinburgh East or (more doubtful but still possible) Stirling or Ochil & South Perthshire.  But they'll lose Glasgow East back to Labour and have to fight off Tory challenges in Angus and Perth & North Perthshire.  

The Tories will turn the borders blue, with wins in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, Dumfries & Galloway... as well as 2 potential surprises in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Argyll & Bute, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, Edinburgh South and Edinburgh South-West as Scotland returns (vaguely) to the Tories, giving them 20% of the vote and 5 MPs north of the border.  

The Lib Dems will, I think, lose their position that the Iraq war gave them in 2005 and won't make any real gains but losing Michael Moore in the borders and potentially West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, Argyll & Bute as well as the opportunity of a gain in Edinburgh South make it a tough night for Tavish.  I still expect them to hold on to around 8 or 9 seats, making them the second party in Scotland in seats but likely fourth on vote share.

And what of Labour?  Well, a night to forget.  They'll gain back Glasgow East from the SNP but most of the night will be a rearguard action, fighting tough battles across Scotland - and the rest of the UK - and several current Cabinet ministers are in danger of leaving the Palace of Westminster for the last time. I reckon to see 37 Scottish Labour MPs, down two from 2005 - probably in the shape of 2 losses to the SNP and one to the Tories - which, on the face of it, would not be a disaster, and they'd have the electoral system to thank for it.

So there.  I reckon some people may have better predictions (and advice on tactical voting) but I don't think I'll be far off.  Kind of makes the point the Electoral Commission is making - only a hundred or so seats will be proper contests, and only 6 or 7 seats in Scotland will (in my view) change hands.  But I guess that's what the next four weeks are about.  Onward!

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Six Nations Week 5 - Predictions

For the final time this year:

Wales 24-17 Italy 
Ireland 23-18 Scotland 
France 30-15 England 

No shocks, I reckon.

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Six Nations Week 2 - Predictions

After getting 3 out of 3 last week, here's the scores on my predictor for this week:

Wales 28-12 Scotland

France 23-16 Ireland
Italy 10-37 England

Today's games first.  With Dan Parks playing I expect Scotland to be even less entertaining/ potent in attack.  Even so, defensively, we've been good so I can't see Wales ripping us apart - unless, of course, Parks keep kicking (badly) to Byrne & Williams and lets them run it back at us.  I think it'll be a long afternoon for us.  Ireland have only won in Paris twice since 1972.  And despite being called cheats by Morgan Parra, I just think the French might out do them a little.  Tactically as much as anything... I also think it may be telling that Kidney has gone with O'Gara and not Sexton at 10.  As for the third game - England will have too much.  Obviously.

Another 3 from 3?  We'll see later.

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World Cup Predictions

In light of Celtic's bold swoop for Robbie Keane as the transfer window shut yesterday (get in!) here's a post on footie.  Not quite on the same topic - its my World Cup prediction.  And though the sport is different, this will prepare you for 7 weeks of rugby chat (and the Superbowl on Sunday) given the Six Nations is about to start.  But more of that later.

So here you go.  

When the World Cup finishes in South Africa, you can check how right (or, more likely, how wrong) I was with my predictions.  I'm always stupid enough to back Spain and the Netherlands at international competitions, and they always disappoint, so I'm not expecting much.  Anyway, thoughts - and your predictions - in the comments.

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Autumn International Predictions

England 25-16 Australia

Wales 27-33 New Zealand

Which probably means Australia and Wales will win, given my history at predictions...

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Odds on a 2009 election

Remembering how bad I am at predictions (I'm better at by-elections than, you know, Presidential elections...) you may wish to ignore any advice coming your way from this blog. But I think I may follow through on my January prediction of a 2009 election by putting my money where my mouth is.

Ladbrokes are offering 9/2 on a 2009 election - which in itself, doesn't really represent much value. But they also offer a punt on the month in which you think an election might occur. I went with a June election (on the same day as the Euros) and you can get 16/1 on that. I sense a cheeky wee fiver might not go amiss on that one...

Of course, they also have some more "fun" bets you can take, such as who you think the next Labour leader might be.

Selected odds:
Harriet Harman - 3/1
David Miliband - 6/1
Ed Miliband - 7/1
Ed Balls - 12/1
Alastair Darling - 33/1
John Reid - 50/1

Oh, and one more thing. The scandal involving Edinburgh South MP Nigel Griffiths (House of Commons romp, in case you'd forgotten) looks like it will cost him his seat if Ladbrokes odds are anything to go by. They have the Lib Dems as favourites for the seat at 11/8 followed by the Tories at 6/4. Labour are third in the betting market at 7/2. Looks like its curtains for knock-off Nigel...

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The 2009 British & Irish Lions

British and Irish Lions squad to tour South Africa (from the BBC):

Full-back
Lee Byrne (28) Ospreys and Wales
Rob Kearney (23) Leinster and Ireland

Wing
Shane Williams (32) Ospreys and Wales
Leigh Halfpenny (20) Cardiff Blues and Wales
Ugo Monye (26) Harlequins and England
Luke Fitzgerald (21) Leinster and Ireland
Tommy Bowe (25) Ospreys and Ireland

Centres
Tom Shanklin (29) Cardiff Blues and Wales
Jamie Roberts (22) Cardiff Blues and Wales
Brian O'Driscoll (30) Leinster and Ireland
Keith Earls (21) Munster and Ireland
Riki Flutey (29) Wasps and England

Fly-half
Stephen Jones (31) Llanelli Scarlets and Wales
Ronan O'Gara (32) Munster and Ireland

Scrum-half
Mike Phillips (26) Ospreys and Wales
Harry Ellis (26) Leicester and England
Tomas O'Leary (25) Munster and Ireland

Prop
Gethin Jenkins (28) Cardiff Blues and Wales
Adam Jones (28) Ospreys and Wales
Andrew Sheridan(29) Sale and England
Phil Vickery (33) Wasps and England
Euan Murray (28) Northampton and Scotland

Hooker
Jerry Flannery (30) Munster and Ireland
Lee Mears (30) Bath and England
Matthew Rees (28) Llanelli Scarlets and Wales

Lock
Paul O'Connell, capt (29) Munster and Ireland
Alun Wyn Jones (23) Ospreys and Wales
Donncha O'Callaghan (30) Munster and Ireland
Nathan Hines (32) Perpignan and Scotland
Simon Shaw (35) Wasps and England

Back-row
Andy Powell (27) Cardiff Blues and Wales
Jamie Heaslip (25) Leinster and Ireland
Alan Quinlan (34) Munster and Ireland
Martyn Williams (33) Cardiff Blues and Wales
David Wallace (32) Munster and Ireland
Joe Worsley (31) Wasps and England
Stephen Ferris (23) Ulster and Ireland

So there we are: 14 Irishmen, 13 Welshmen, 8 Englishmen and 2 Scots.

Some big shocks there. Only 2 stand-offs. Only one 6 Nations captain (Brian O'Driscoll) makes it. There's no place for Ryan Jones or Tom Croft - both of whom would have been ahead of Andy Powell for me. Ugo Monje pips Paul Sackey for a spot on the wing, Keith Earls is a suprise choice at centre and Delon Armitage is wondering why he's been left behind. Harry Ellis looks like he may start at 9 after both him and Tomas O'Leary are selected ahead of Mike Blair. And then there's some huge guys in the pack - Powell, Quinlan and Worsley make it ahead of Jones, Croft and Taylor (who, in fairness, was my wild card pick!). I can't believe Simon Shaw is touring again - the only survivor from 1997 - while Mathew Rees pips Ross Ford and Rory Best for the third hookers spot and Adam Jones goes as an extra prop.

For me, the size of some of these guys provides evidence of how McGeechan wants the side to play. The pack will try to front up against what will be a huge South African pack, while even some of the backs (Jamie Roberts) are huge guys. I think the idea is to beef up the back to allow both Shane and Martyn Williams either to start or to come off the bench to provide a wee bit of flair - something that is considerably missing from this squad. The fact that only two 10s (Jones & O'Gara) are going suggests a conservative gameplan - though that might well come unstuck when the provincial sides target them. Expect we'll have to call up a replacement 10 at some point - Jonny Wilkinson, Danny Cipriani and James Hook should be sitting by their phone.

Prediction - South Africa to win. 3-0. Based on that squad, I don't think we have what it takes. I've been wrong before. Quite often in fact. Maybe I'll be wrong again.

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One hour to go...

Just over an hour until the British & Irish Lions squad is announced and the excitement is reaching unbearable levels in my flat... where I'm all alone and scouring the web for titbits of info.

Here's some of the rumours going around:

• Shane Williams, Wales leading try scorer and IRB World Player of the Year misses out on the squad because of his poor form for the Ospreys and Wales this year.
  
  
• Shane Williams, Wales leading try scorer makes the squad because of his talent and the ability to waltz past huge South Africans.

Okay, those two are somewhat contradictory but here's some that are not:

• The squad will be expanded to 37 players.
  
  
• Josh Lewsey, England World Cup winner, will be a shock inclusion (Wasps connection no doubt helping there).
  
  
• There is no place for Danny Cipriani or Jonny Wilkinson.
  
  
• Gavin Henson might be selected on the basis that we have a distinct lack of flair players playmaker positions.
  
  
• Ryan Jones scrapes in as number 37.
  
  
• Or Andy Powell makes it instead...
  

Roll on 1.30pm!

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British & Irish Lions: Predictor

The British and Irish Lions squad to tour South Africa this summer is announced tomorrow afternoon. Having been challenged by an Irish friend (who, rather predictably has stacked his Lions squad full of Irishmen) here is my thinking regarding the squad. (Probable Test starters in capitals)

Full-back: LEE BYRNE Delon Armitage Rob Kearney
Wing: SHANE WILLIAMS TOMMY BOWE Luke Fitzgerald Paul Sackey
Centre: BRIAN O'DRISCOLL RIKI FLUTEY Jamie Roberts Tom Shanklin
Fly-Half: STEPHEN JONES Ronan O'Gara James Hook
Scrum-Half: MIKE PHILLIPS Dwayne Peel Mike Blair

Prop: GETHIN JENKINS EUAN MURRAY John Hayes Phil Vickery Andrew Sheridan
Hooker: JERRY FLANNERY Lee Mears Ross Ford
Second Row: PAUL O'CONNELL (capt) ALUN WYN JONES Donncha O'Callaghan Nathan Hines Nick Kennedy
Back Row: DAVID WALLACE TOM CROFT JAMIE HEASLIP Martyn Williams Stephen Ferris, Simon Taylor

There.

A squad of 36:

17 Backs and 19 Forwards

12 Irishmen
11 Welshmen
8 Englishmen
5 Scotsmen

There are some big debates there - and some guys who just miss out. No Andy Powell or Ryan Jones after Wales fell away in the Six Nations and Henson's injury keeps him out of my tour party. Leigh Halfpenny was in my first draft... and got cut as I trimmed the backs to 17. I think Simon Taylor might be a surprise pick as Ian McGeechan knows him well from his Scotland days. Danny Cipriani might also have gotten the nod, but I think he's not quite the finished article while Jonny Wilkinson's delayed return to action means a lack of playing time to play his way in. James Hook takes his place with Nicky Robinson running both close.

I was tempted to leave out Shane Williams - so dramatic has his loss of form been - but I don't think Geech would leave out the IRB World Player of the Year, it'd be a PR disaster from the off.

Here's my list of reserves (that narrowly miss out) to be called up in case of injuries:
Chris Paterson
Leigh Halfpenny
Keith Earls
Tomas O'Leary
Joe Worsley
Ryan Jones
Ian Gough
Mathew Rees
Adam Jones

Guess we'll find out how close I am tomorrow. If you have any thoughts, feel free to share them in the comments.

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2009 at a glance...

Hullo again, and Happy New Year. I hope everyone has had a grand old festive season, didn't eat too much and is ready for all that 2009 is going to throw at you. I've been away from the 'Burgh since Christmas Eve, and with NO (yep, zero, zip, none) internet at my parents' house, I've had to give blogging a wee break. And no, they don't live in a cave... just the North East of Scotland.

Let me start the New Year with a big thank you. Over 23,500 hits on this page since I started it in February 2008. That's either a fair few of you looking at these meanderings or my mum reading it a lot. Given the lack of internet at home, I'd like to thank all of you for coming back to read what I have to say. I hope to keep up the blogging for a good while yet, despite the blogging "retirement" that seems to be going round.

So, lets have some predictions for 2009:

1) First up, the biggie. Gordon Brown will put all his eggs in a June General Election after Labour don't do as badly as he thinks in the May Euros/ English Council elections. Brown's handling of the economy shrinks Tory poll leads but not enough to stop huge gains at their expense and resulting in a hung parliament and months of wrangling over power (see Canada 2008).

2) In Scotland, the SNP will double their seat tally at Westminster, but fall short of Alex Salmond's prediction of 20 seats (more to come on seat predictions in the coming weeks). And their government of Scotland will continue to be slow and unspectacular but effective... a "softly, softly approach", doing less but doing it better.

3) Staying with the Scottish Government, and after a struggle, the SNP will pass their next budget - though Labour will do significantly better than last year and extract some key concessions. And after this "success", the First Minister decides to shake things up a little, and reshuffle his Cabinet - but only three faces will change.

4) The Lib Dems' poor poll showing in 2008 will not improve any in 2009. They will lose their deposit in yet another by-election and see their vote slide away in council by-elections in Scotland. By the election they will win only 12% of the vote and less than half their current seats.

5) The Tories will replace the lacklustre George Osbourne as Shadow Chancellor at a "quiet" but opportune moment... a month before the next budget. Replacement? I'd like to say Ken Clarke... but would Cameron be that brave?

6) SNP Tactical Voting's Jeff will return home from his travels to a job at the Scottish Parliament... though perhaps not working for whom you'd expect!

7) Despite the mood-lifting election of Barack Obama in the US, I think there will be another assasination attempt on him. My gran told me she wanted John McCain to win because "people would hate him less and wouldn't want to kill him." There's a lesson here - listen to your Gran. I hope I'm wrong about this one.

8) Obama will base his policy on "restoring" peace between Israel & Palestine on Jed Bartlet's approach in season six of The West Wing. And if you don't know what I'm talking about - watch it!

9) Kris Boyd will swallow a whole tattie & bean pie and apologise to George Burley who immediately sticks him in the starting line-up for Scotland's next game. Though, by the end of the year, the national team can no longer qualify for the World Cup.

10) Finally, footie. Celtic will win the SPL for the fourth time in a row and Gordon Strachan will decide he's had enough crap from the fans and resign. Walter Smith will be sacked/resign (not sure the Chairman has it in him to sack his best bud) and Ally McCoist will take over. Aberdeen will finish 3rd, Inverness bottom and St. Johnstone will be promoted. In England, Arsenal miss out on Champions League football to Aston Villa while... you know what, I'm going with it: Liverpool will win their first Premier League title. Blackburn, West Brom and Stoke City will be relegated. And Barcelona will get their hands on the Champions League trophy.

And that is 2009 in a nutshell. Wake me up in time for Christmas. I'm off for a lemsip... smorran wi' the cal!

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The 2009/10 General Election

Current political map of Scotland (from Scottish Politics)

I've been saying for some time that I would start a round-up of the Scottish constituencies in time for the next Westminster election. Well, that time has arrived, and an alphabetical list will begin with Aberdeen North this afternoon. I'm still working on some (most) of the information. If nothing else, I'll get 59 blog posts out of it...

Anyway, to start off, here's a rough guide to my predictions (which would be more fun if Jeff were here to critique them). I should point out that pre-Glenrothes by-election, there were slightly less Labour seats, but after careful analysis (read: guesswork) I've reverted them back to red. So, the next Parliament's representation from Scotland - by my reckoning - will look something like this:

LAB (including Speaker) - 31 (-8)
SNP - 13 (+6)
LIB DEM - 9 (-3)
CON - 6 (+5)

The following posts will give information on each constituency - with previous election results, swing required, candidates and Scottish Parliament equivalents. If you know of any factors that I haven't considered (for example, pertinent local issues) drop me a line and I'll update the information.

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Labour to hold Glenrothes?

I'll start off with a disclaimer. I've only been to Glenrothes once in the last two months. And that was to attend a wedding in Markinch. So I have no real point of reference for what I'm about to say. But bear in mind that my only trip to the east end of Glasgow during a by-election there was to Celtic Park - and I still called that one correctly (ignore the leadership predictions!).

So here's what I'm going to say: I think Labour might actually win it. I wrote about Glenrothes the day after John MacDougall's funeral, suggesting that Brown might kick it to November - then hedging and deciding he'd probably call a snap election in September. Quote me (19 August 2008):

"Of course, the other, much touted option is to kick it long - possibly even into November. This has a couple of advantages - not least the opportunity for the economy to turn around, Brown to relaunch, polls to turn, a decent candidate to step forward, a new leader in Scotland to tackle the First Minister."

Now, what has actually happened? Well, the economy has been saved/ decimated (depending on your SNP/ Labour filtered glasses) Brown had his relaunch at Conference, polls are beginning to turn for Labour, arguably Labour have a decent candidate... and, well, they have a new leader in Scotland (though not so much tackling the FM as... well, I don't know.

But surely they are in a better position now to win the seat than they were two months ago? And they might just do it - by around 1,500 votes I reckon. Maybe.

There has been some discussion of the Lib Dem chances - but at 100/1, there's a better chance of John McCain winning the US election. An election, incidentally, which may have more impact upon the people of Glenrothes than the election of their own MP, given the current economic climate.

Maybe Gordon got that one right - maybe people will be more interested in what happens Stateside two days before Glenrothes.

Turnout, I'd suggest, might be considerably lower than we've seen in recent by-elections. But, I think, with 2 weeks to go, I'm leaning towards a Labour hold... but it is a totally uneducated guess!

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Norwegian Wood

Hoping not to see a similar image later on.

I'm heading through to Glenrothes later today. Before anyone gets too concerned that I'm off on the campaign trail, I should point out that I'm off to a wedding - and no, we won't be throwing election-leaflet confetti. You should have seen the look I got when it was "suggested" that if we went early enough we could do some leafletting first!

Anyway, I'm at that age where all my friends/ girlfriend's friends seem to be getting engaged or married (but thankfully not having kids yet!) as this is our third wedding this year - and we already 3 for next year. And no... not one of them is mine.

I'll have to have words with the groom today about organising his wedding on the same day as a World Cup Qualifier though. Mind you, cermony starts at two, kick off is three... I guess if I make that suggestion to someone close to me I might not have to worry about having a similar day in the future!

Have to say, he's probably doing me a favour though. Norway are no mugs, and after our defeat in Macedonia followed by a less than stellar performance against Iceland - a country we're apparently soon to be at war with - I'd say things aren't looking too good for 3 points this afternoon. I better say something positive or I'll be charged with being a pessimist again...

Nah, can't think of anything. Unless we get three points today, we can kiss goodbye to qualifying. And I think we'll have to be pretty good to do that - something we haven't looked like being since a glorious night in Paris.

I better enjoy the wedding.

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Challenge - the prediction

Further to my challenge to ASwaS, here's how I think the swing states will go in November. I should preface it by saying that I think the result of the 2004 Electoral College will largely be repeated - with only 5 states switching from one candidate to the other.

12 Swing states:

New Mexico
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 0.8%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Epitome of a close call – in 2000 it was DEM by just 366 votes, last time REP by less than 6,000. Swinging DEM again with the congressional delegation and the Governorship – Bill Richardson has endorsed Barack Obama. High population of Hispanics – marginally – calling this one for Obama.
NEW MEXICO – DEM (+5)

Colorado
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 9
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 5%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

While the Democrats have seen a swing towards them in recent congressional elections (2 congressmen, one senator) and the gubernatorial due to the growing Hispanic population, Colorado is a Republican stronghold. DEMs last won the state when Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, but that may change in November.
COLORADO – DEM (+9)

Iowa
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 7
Margin of victory, 2004: Republican, 0.8%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Historically the Democratic candidate has won Iowa. However, on his way to a second term in 2004, George W. Bush edged a close victory for the Republicans. With Iowa bordering Obama’s home state (Illinois) and his decent polling in the state, it could switch back to DEM.
IOWA – DEM (+7)

Ohio
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 20
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 2%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Ohio is a key state, not least for the fact that 20 electoral votes are available to the winner. Democrats now have the Governor, a Senator and a Congressman – all elected in 2006 mid-terms, but Barack Obama had failed to win over Ohio’s blue-collar workers in the primaries. John McCain’s choice of running mate may swing the state back to the Republicans, enough to hold off Obama’s charge here.
OHIO – REP (N/C)

Virginia
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 13
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 8%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Virginia has been solidly Republican since the 1970s but now, like many of the swing states, has a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator was elected in the mid-terms in 2006. However, it will require a large change for Barack Obama to win here. If he does, it is game over for McCain. But I don’t think that will happen.
VIRGINIA – REP (N/C)

Florida
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 27
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 5%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Florida proved the controversial winning post for George Bush in 2000 when a Supreme Court decision was required to decide the election. However, 2004 saw the Republicans win back the state more comfortably. John McCain won a hard-fought Republican primary here, and should replicate that victory in November.
FLORIDA – REP (N/C)

On the basis that they border Obama’s home state (or, at least, the state he represents) of Illinois, I’d suggest that Minnesota and Wisconsin will remain with the Democrats. New Hampshire voted Bush in 2000 but will probably stay Democrat this time out. Michigan, with 17 electoral votes and Pennsylvania with 21 are two states which I think could go either way. If Obama loses either – and there is potential given his lack of appeal to blue-collar workers – then the game is over. I’d expect Pennsylvania to remain blue but won’t be surprise if Michigan (+17) turns red. I'm also - at the last minute - deciding to give Obama Nevada (+5).

And in those 12 states, the 2008 Presidential Election will be won and lost. I only expect 5 states to change hands – New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa to go for Obama while Michigan turns for McCain. That’s the ballgame there – and John McCain will win by 277-261.

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