Euro-election liveblog

Jeff & Will are liveblogging the European election coverage. Don't want them to get lonely so I may join them now and again.

2312: Right, I can't be bothered any more. I'm still hopeful the Greens might nick the last seat but it is looking increasingly likely that the Lib Dems will take it. UK-wide it is still early, but I don't think my predictions on Wed will be too far off. I'll wait and find out tomorrow morning. Until then, enjoy my graphic one more time...

2258: I've just flicked from BBC News 24 to BBC Scotland (which I didn't realise was on!) so now I'll be able to focus on Scottish seats... unless I decide to go to bed!

2250: Those previous figures were solely for North & Leith. Edinburgh-wide, figures are:

SNP - 24,417
Con - 21,823
Lab - 20,330
LD - 19,799
Green - 15,589
UKIP - 4,104
Oth - 4,000

Massive for the SNP winning that (21%) with the Tories second (19%) and Labour rolling home in 3rd (18%) Lots of Labour MPs in Edinburgh looking pretty concerned I would think.

2240: According to Tory Westminster candidate for Edinburgh North & Leith (where I stay for Westminster but not Scottish Parliamentary elections) Iain McGill, the vote was tighter than a duck's hind quarters:

SNP - 4965
Lab - 4324
LD - 4201
Con - 4199
Green - 4014
UKIP - 753

Five parties within 1,000 votes of each other?! Where does that happen. Can't wait to see the Lib Dems' "only we can beat Labour here" bar charts for Edin North & Leith now!

2235: Patrick Harvie seems to now believe that the Greens will fall short in Scotland. Judging by Brian Taylor's comments before, he may be right.

2225: Brian Taylor has the SNP on 29% across Scotland with Labour on 21%. He is predicting 2 SNP seats, 2 Labour, 1 Tory and 1 Lib Dem. We'll find out soon enough I guess.

2200: Answer to that could be YES if BBC reports from Wales are to be believed. The Tories topping the poll there?! Gordon Brown is such a bad PM that he's lost Wales to the Tories? Surely not...

2158: Will has the SNP topping the poll in Renfrewshire (seat of Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy) and in South Lanarkshire. Two areas not exactly known for SNP voting. Could this bad night for Labour be an absolute shocker?

2145: First result in from North-East England region. Labour top the poll. Seats breakdown:

LAB - 1
CON - 1
LD - 1

No change. Though the share of the vote is interesting. -9% for Labour in an area where they have 28 of the 30 Westminster seats. Not much to look at trend-wise I don't think.

2135: Jeff has the result from Glenrothes count for Fife:

Lab - 21,248
SNP - 21,043
Lib - 10,613
Con - 10,110

Marginal win for Labour. Decent news for them there... but not amazing. Would the SNP have expected to win the vote there? No word on the Green vote there yet.

2025: According to the Lib Dems on Twitter, they've topped the poll in Burnley by over 1,000 votes from Labour. Big BNP vote in council elections there last time out - they would have expected a big Euro vote too. Is it too hopeful to think that might not happen for them?

2018: Green MSP Patrick Harvie spreading rumours on Twitter.

18% vote for the Greens in Glasgow? That'd be huge for them.

2106: Brian Taylor on BBC - advising Iain Gray he may want to consider his position on the back of Labour's showing in the European elections. He is suggesting that the SNP win the poll fairly handily and that Labour may have done badly. Very badly.

2101: Yousuf says Labour will only get one MEP in Scotland. Would that constitute a disaster? Assuming he is basing his findings on Glasgow - if they can't win there, where can they win?
Feel free to use my graphic...

2100: I have what constitutes a result for you from the Moray Scottish Parliamentary constituency.

SNP - 6960
CON - 4078
LAB - 1760
LD - 1744
UKIP - 1532
Green - 1532

SNP vote up 8% from 2004 EU election, only party vote up. Good share for UKIP and Green, as well as the Tories. I know this is the SNP heartlands... but anything we can draw from it? Perhaps the Green vote increase might reflect a national trend.

2050: A note for any Labour voters from Aled off The Chris Moyles Show:

Good to know that there is someone to help you if there is anything upsetting you tonight...

2038: Yousuf lets us know (via Twitter) that "Glasgow is bad. Really bad." Now, he might just be confirming what us Edinburghers already know, or he might be talking about the Euro vote. But bad in what way? Turnout? Or Labour numbers. I suspect the latter...

2016: Some early tidbits for you.

I hear that in Moray, where the SNP could stand a sheep with a yellow & black rosette as a candidate, their vote is up 9% from their 2004 Euro vote.

Remember though, the SNP's vote share in 2004 dropped so badly that John Swinney stood down soon afterwards.

Read more...

FMQs: Live Blog

Well, I'll never make it writing the Official Report or Hansard (quotes are not exact quotes) but an interesting exercise nonetheless. Don't think I've seen the FM quite so angry... I don't know how I'd score it today though. Any thoughts?

12.27 Hugh O'Donnell - how do we support children who have been excluded from schools? FM - £500m spent on area. Thanks him for constructive nature of question.

12.24 David Stewart - will the Scottish Government appoint a victims' commissioner. FM - no plans at present. Follow up - will FM support his Members' Bill on the isse. Answer - Justice Secretary will discuss with him when the consultation is published.

12.22 Willie Coffey - Discussions with Scottish Enterprise re: recession. Salmond: Regular discussions, more advisors... follow up is more of the same.

12.19 Constituency question from Michael McMahon - which the FM agrees to act upon.

12.18 Salmond: "I am perfectly happy to have discussions... but you cannot sit down with an unbreakable policy like the 2p cut in tax that the Lib Dems have suggested and expect to get an agreement."

12.18 Scott: "Is FM prepared to sit down with other parties? And fiscal plans were made in boom times - are they being revised under bust times?"

12.17 Salmond: Conciliarity noises to Tavish Scott. "Even if the SNP agreed with their tax cut - no support for it across the chamber."

12.16 Salmond: Yes

12.15 Tavish Scott: "Is Scotland in recession?"

12.15 Salmond: This needs to be done in the interests of the Scottish people.

12.14 Goldie: "First priority is to pass budget." "In the interests of no one in the parliament for it to be a laughing stock" - from a Tory who opposed the parliament itself. The Tories get it.

12.13 Apparently so. Salmond does agree - with a smile - which suggests that if the budget fails again, we may well be heading for another election.

12.10 Annabel Goldie: Falling Scottish economy was why Tories negotiated in budget. Gives Labour a bit of a whack. And makes clear that the Tories will not support Labour running for Government in the Scottish Parliament. And asks if Salmond agrees. Is this a pact?

12.09 Salmond says he has made two offers to Labour demands which have been met... and names another one. He rants out a list - rather effectively - of things that are at risk if the budget doesn't pass. He's pretty angry.

12.08 Gray "responsibility" of SNP to react to economic situation and Labour door still open to negotiations.

12.07 But Salmond hits back, furiously. And probably wins that one.

12.05 Gray: The Tories are the SNP's "loyal servants". He makes a decent hit with the issue that the budget money will still be available in June...

12.04 Salmond agrees - in a sense - but then whacks Labour for partisan politics. PO chides MSPs for clapping.

12.03 Gray quotes Einstein - and the definition of insanity. Mentions apprenticeships as potential for budget negotiations.

12.02 Salmond quote the Daily Express in response... oh dear.

12.01 Gray: "I want to offer the FM the opportunity to explain to Scots how he aims to get support for his new budget."

12.00 Iain Gray, up first, as usual.

11.56 General questions just finishing up... and I'm having a cup of tea. Unlike Tom Harris, I do like unconventional tea. Cranberry, raspberry and elderflower it is today...

11.50 Well, I'm doing nothing else right now and though FMQs might be interesting today, so I think I'll live blog it. Anyone guess what some of the questions might be?

Read more...

Glenrothes By-Election LIVE BLOG

1.04 Right, after two of these in three nights, I'm absolutely shattered. Off to bed. Its been a good night for Labour, a "reality check" for the SNP, a disappointment for the Tories and a disaster for the Lib Dems. Sound like a fair analysis? More will follow tomorrow, but for now, thanks for joining me. Have again, thoroughly enjoyed the liveblog and the chat in the comments. Until the next one, cheers!

1.00 Jim Silliars says its a "good thing" for the SNP that they haven't won Glenrothes - its a reality check. Which makes sense. Also, he says that "Independence must be put back on the front of the party's agenda" and they must start talking it up independence, making the case for it. But he also goes off on a bit of a rant about everything which takes away from his point a wee bit.

0.56 So there we have it. Labour hold the seat - and get slightly more votes than previously. The SNP increased their vote massively - 5,000 more than last time out. Disaster for Lib Dems, who fall from third to fourth for the second by-election in succession as well as losing their deposit again. Tories up to third but they lost their deposit too.

0.47 Lindsay Roy is banging on that the SNP are making cuts and that is bad. Doesn't he realise that we're in a recession?

0.43 RESULT:
Lindsay Roy, Labour 19,946
Peter Grant, SNP 13,209
Maurice Golden, Conservative 1,381
Harry Wills, Liberal Democrats 947
Jim Parker, Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party 296

Morag Balfour, Scottish Socialists 212

Kris Seunarine, UKIP 117

Louise McLeary, Solidarity 87

Majority, 6,737
Swing 5% from Labour to SNP

0.41 David Mundell makes a good point - shouldn't extract anything on a national scale from this by-election. Willie Rennie is making out that its a worse result for the SNP (finishing second - presumably - with an increased vote share) than it is for the Lib Dems (possibly finishing 4th, losing their deposit). Doesn't that make him sound a bit silly?

0.35 Though, in fairness, she makes a decent point about the SNP being judged on actions - record at Holyrood and at Council level in Fife. On another point, sometimes I slate the BBC for their coverage, but tonight, it has been pretty good.

0.33 Anne McGuire, the awful MP for Stirling, is now on BBC... she's almost the worst MP I've ever seen. She's my Gran's MP - true story.

0.26 Kiss of death in by-elections appears to be a prediction that you will win from Scottish Tory Boy. Two by-elections - two wrong predictions. Oh dear...

0.23 Two points that are being made here: If you don't win a seat do you lose it? Or is it only if you hold the seat and don't win it that you lose it? That's an interesting take...

0.21 Angus Robertson is spinning his way out of Alex Salmond's prediction. And he's doing a pretty decent job of it. Glenn Campbell is toasting him a wee bit though. It's all about "progress" for the SNP and "slashing" the Labour majority.

0.17 Apparently a result from Glenrothes in 15mins. Don't hold your breath.

0.14 I have news from Forth by-election. And that is a Labour Hold as well. Labour won 2,000 votes there to the SNP's 1,800. Tories grabbed 1,200, Lib Dems 900 and Big Brother Independent got 200. Obviously the figures are somewhat approximate...

0.10 Susan Deacon makes a good point. The realities of governing impact hugely upon a party.

0.06 The blog at the Guardian makes a good point. Maybe we shouldn't gift wrap this for Labour yet. The projections have been all over the place all night. Might not be over yet. Anyone buying this? No? Me either...

0.03 No confirmation on the Forth by-election yet, but early rumours are that Labour may have held onto that one too. Looks like a clean sweep for Gordon's boys and girls...

23.56 There was also a by-election in Glasgow East tonight - the Ballieston ward of Glasgow City Council. Looks like Labour have held that seat - with a majority of 260. Or so I hear.

23.55 Just got a text from a Labour source. He is hearing that the party are "home and dry..." Not looking like a big win, but a win nonetheless.

23.49 Yeah, here's what I said two weeks ago:

But surely they are in a better position now to win the seat than they were two months ago? And they might just do it - by around 1,500 votes I reckon. Maybe.

Though I also suggested that the turnout would be much lower - so why would you trust anything I predict?!

23.42 Murphy predicts 1. Lab, 2. SNP, 3. Con, 4. LD. I think that's what I'd go with - and that's what I said last week.

23.40 Is it time for me to go all smug and say "I said last week when everyone else was predicting SNP would win that Labour would hold it" or do I hold off? Its still early...

23.38 Turnout over 52% - huge for a by-election.

23.36 Claims that Labour have HELD the seat - maybe by around 1,000.

23.33 John Curtice (Prof, Strathclyde Uni) casting it as a vote about Gordon Brown's handling of the economic crisis.

23.16 Willie Rennie MP (Lib Dem for a close-by seat!) also claims incumbency for the SNP - perhaps trying to paint that if they don't win, it's a disaster?

23.14 Jim Murphy (new Sec State for Scotland - more on that later) is playing a smart game on Newsnight. He's saying that Labour are underdogs... that the SNP won the equivilant Scottish Parliament seat (Central Fife - 80% of the seat) and managing expectations well. He stopped short of saying that the SNP were "incumbent"-esq but not by much...

23.10 David Mundell comes out with a bombshell on BBC coverage. He tells us that the Tories have NOT won Glenrothes. Let me repeat that... the Tories have NOT won...

23.00 Is it just me, or does anyone else think that the result of the US Presidential election will probably impact more directly on the lives of constituents in Glenrothes than the new MP for the area?

22.54 Just to be perfectly fair, here's a list of the candidates fighting the by-election in Glenrothes:

Morag Balfour, Scottish Socialists

Maurice Golden, Conservative

Peter Grant, SNP

Lindsay Roy, Labour

Kris Seunarine, UKIP

Harry Wills, Liberal Democrats

Louise McLeary, Solidarity

Jim Parker, Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party

22.50 I think I'm right in saying that the by-election for the Forth Ward of the City of Edinburgh Council was also held today. Perhaps not as nationally interesting at Glenrothes, but maybe crucial for the power in Edinburgh. Labour defending the seat but if either the SNP or the Lib Dems win, it would give them a wee bit more breathing room at the City Chambers.

22.36 As my non-Tory Anon commentator points out, Brian Taylor suggests that the SNP may have sneaked it in a close vote - and points out that the Lib Dem vote may have crashed, thereby leaving the SNP to mop up the anti-Labour vote.

22.30 I'm hearing a bit of chat that both the Lib Dems and the Tories might lose their deposits... with the Tories pipping the Lib Dems for third. As I say, just a bit of chat - anyone know any different?

22.25 Anseo is blogging from the scene. He sounds pretty positive for the SNP. I know I called it a Labour win by 500 two weeks ago... but I think it might be even closer than that. And the SNP might just have done it. Thoughts?

22.18 Anyone have any early chat from Glenrothes? Anyone been there today (or previously?) and know what the chat is?

22.10 Polls have closed in Glenrothes. If you're at home and waiting for the coverage to start on TV, you can listen to some early chat on Radio Scotland. Wee plug for my PhD supervisor, who's acting as an "expert" on the show.

22.00 I said I'd start liveblogging about the by-election at around 10pm so here we go.

Read more...

US election - LIVE BLOG #3

UPDATE 11.25 I was going to round off the numbers, but there are still a couple of states that remain uncalled. Sky News has Montana (3) and Alaska (3) for McCain. And Indiana (11) for Obama. Not that it really matters now.

McCain 161
Obama 349

Still to call: North Carolina (15) (leaning Obama) and Missouri (11) (leaning McCain. If those were to go that way, final state by state would read:

McCain 172
Obama 364

But I'll hold off on that for a little while.

4.45 It is nearly 5am here and I'm calling it a night. There are still five states in play - Alaska, Missouri (probably McCain), Montana (probably Obama) and Indiana and North Carolina (probably Obama but too close to call really).

I'd like to thank everyone who has commented/ read these meanderings over the past 6(!) hours. Hope you've enjoyed it. I'll be back with some analysis in a few hours - after I've had some sleep. And then there's Glenrothes on Thursday. Arrabest!

4.38 Sky News has Nevada (5) for Obama as well.

McCain 155
Obama 338

4.36 Sky News calls Colorado (9) for Obama.

McCain 155
Obama 333

4.30 I really hope that Obama considers offering McCain a Cabinet post - or am I going a but West Wing Season 7 on you all?

4.25 McCain's concession speech really is something.

4.20 Sky News calls Florida (27) for Obama. Getting near that landslide that I said wouldn't happen... but Arizona (10) called for native McCain.

McCain 155
Obama 324

4.18 McCain on stage in Arizona.

4.17 Colorado, Indiana and FLORIDA projected for Obama by various US networks. No confirmation yet.

4.11 McCain has called Obama and conceded the election; about to address crowd in Arizona.

4.04 Sky News calls Califonia (55), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4) and Washington (11) for Obama, Idaho (4) for McCain

McCain 145
Obama 297

4.02 SKY NEWS CALLS ELECTION FOR BARACK OBAMA - 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA


4.01 Sky News calls VIRGINIA (13) for Obama. That's almost all folks...

McCain 141
Obama 220

4.00 Polls closed in California, Washington and Oregon.

3.59 McCain to address rally shortly - in about a minute and a half apparently.

3.58 California on the verge of declaring for Obama... is there a slightly overweight woman warming up her vocal chords somewhere?

3.50 Fox and AP are calling Virginia for Obama. Looks like the tipping point, would put Obama on 220 - with California's 55 putting him over the top. Concession speech on the way?

3.44 36 states have now been called

3.40 Sky News calls South Dakota (3) for McCain.

McCain 141
Obama 207

3.33 Sky News projects McCain to win 3 of Nebraska's EC votes (split college).

McCain 138
Obama 207

3.26 Question being asked on Sky News: "Where were you when Barack Obama was elected as the first African American US President?" Well, I was right here, bringing the news to you!

3.17 There's a guy being interviewed on Sky News just now - his name is Bob Weiner. That's my moment of light-hearted humour for the morning.

3.12 Sky News: John McCain "moments away" from a concession speech... one more state for Obama (plus California's 55 votes) will tip it.

3.01 Sky News: Obama wins Iowa (7), McCain wins Utah (5), Mississippi (6)

McCain 135
Obama 207

3.00 Sky News does indeed give Texas (34) to McCain.

McCain 124
Obama 200

2.55 BBC, ABC both call Texas for McCain, though I'll still hold off on that until Sky News...

2.52 ABC projects that Mississippi will, unsurprisingly, go red.

2.50 According to MSNBC, the popular vote figures at 50%-49% to Obama - with 36 million votes counted...

2.44 With California, Oregon and Washington state to come (which will, in all likelihood, go Democrat) we're looking at Obama making 284 without too much trouble - passing 270 with some ease. And I should have taken some money on Obama...

2.40 Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah shortly... not that they are going to matter much!

2.33 Sky News calls Louisiana (9) for McCain, New Mexico (5) for Obama.

McCain 90
Obama 200

2.32 I keep saying this, but Florida still too close to call.

2.30 New thread required I feel for the imminent conclusion of this race... and a picture of the man who presumably will be the 44th President of the United States of America.

Read more...

US election - LIVE BLOG #2

2.28 Looking like its over - but I'll shift to another thread for the conclusion.

2.24 MASSIVE MOMENT Sky News - Obama WINS OHIO. 20 EV for him... surely over now.

McCain 81
Obama 195

2.23 Democrats have retained control of the Senate. They now have 52 Senators. Running up the score now.

2.20 FoxNews projects OHIO for Obama - again. Based on 9% of the precincts reporting. If that goes blue, they can start opening the champagne...

2.14 In fact, looking at the whole map... and taking out the states that haven't changed hands in years - McCain can only really afford to lose Nevada. He'd need to win everywhere else - Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Mexico and Colorado. And that is a big ask.

2.12 Forgetting Florida and Ohio - which would make it big - if Obama can find a win in Colorado, he's pretty much got it won.

2.10 Kansas (6) for McCain - Sky News.

McCain 81
Obama 175

2.08 We're getting into the realms of winning territory now - Sky News calls Michigan (17) for Obama. McCain takes Wyoming (3).

McCain 75
Obama 175

2.06 Sky News calls Minnesota (10), Rhode Island (4) for Obama

McCain 72
Obama 158

2.04 Sky News calls North Dakota (3) for McCain.

McCain 72
Obama 144

2.03 Sky News calls New York (31), Wisconsin (10) for Obama

McCain 69
Obama 144

2.01 Fox calls OHIO for Obama but retracts...

2.01 Fox gives Obama Wisconsin, New Mexico, New York

2.00 Some more projections imminent...

1.53 Five more polls close in seven minutes.

1.43 Sky News also calls Georgia (15) - for McCain. Something of a revival?

McCain 69
Obama 103

1.42 Sky News finally calls Connecticut for Obama. My numbers are aligned again.

McCain 54
Obama 103

1.40 Irvine Welsh (of "Trainspotting" authoring fame) is on Sky News, being interviewed in Florida. They're still calling it as "too close" but Obama ahead by a nose... THAT really would be curtains.

1.32 Arkansas (6), Alabama (9) and Oklahoma (7) all called for McCain by Sky News.

McCain 54
Obama 103 (-7 CONN is 96)

1.30 Sky News gives Obama Illinois (21) - but hasn't yet called Connecticut which I have - which I think is where the numbers are skewed.

McCain 32
Obama 103 (-7 CONN is 96)

1.29 Sky News gives Obama Pennsylvania (21).... and I think, the election.

McCain 32
Obama 82

1.23 Arkansas polls close at 1.30 GMT. ABC and MSNBC call Oklahoma for McCain. I'm still waiting for Sky for Penn. Polls showing Obama ahead in Ohio as well, Florida too close to call.

1.19 Sky News gives Obama New Jersey (15).

McCain 32
Obama 61

1.16 For some reason Sky has the score as 39-32. And I can't work out why!

1.13 Sky News calls New Hampshire (4) for Obama.

McCain 32
Obama 46

1.12 ABC also projects Pennsylvania for Obama too...

1.08 MSNBC has projected Pennsylvania - crucially - for Obama... but no other networks calling it yet. That's potentially game over.

1.04 Delaware (3), Maine (4), Connecticut (7), Washington D.C (3) for Obama; Tennessee (11) for McCain.

McCain 32
Obama 42

1.03 Sky News also calls Maryland (10) for Obama.

McCain 21
Obama 25

1.02 Sky News calls Mass. for Obama.

McCain 21
Obama 15

1.01 Fox News projects Massachusetts (12 votes) for Obama. I'm waiting for Sky to call it as well before I update.

1.00 15 more states close polls. Plus D.C I won't list them all. But includes Pennsylvania and Florida - two key states. Incidentally, Sky News says Georgia is too close to call.

0.51 Sky News gives McCain South Carolina with 8 Electoral Votes.

McCain 21
Obama 3

00.47 I need another cup of tea.

0.45 Republican commentator on Sky News telling us that Palin has won over a lot of disaffected Hillary voters. Anyone buy it?

0.43 With 12% of precincts reporting in Indiana, CNN has McCain leading 51-48. That's a biggie - long way to go yet.

0.41 (GMT) I took the photo below. True story. Everyone having a good time?

Read more...

US election - LIVE BLOG

0.35 Ohio and North Carolina too close to call. And I'm going to start a new thread - this is getting massive!

0.31 Fox News - and now Sky News - are calling West Virginia (5) for McCain. I must have been a wee bit early with that!

McCain 13
Obama 3

0.30 Polls close in Ohio (super-swing state - might be the tipping point if Obama takes it) West Virginia and North Carolina.

0.26 Scratch the WV chat... I might have read the map wrong... Still only 2 states called.

0.24 FoxNews calls West Virginia (5) for McCain. No other networks has that yet.

0.15 MSNBC has Indiana as Too Close To Call. To reiterate, McCain really needs to win it if he's to keep the race going.

0.09 Just to recap, the states where polls closed at midnight (GMT) are Georgia, Kentucky (RED) South Carolina, Vermont (BLUE), Indiana and Virginia.

Indiana and Virginia the ones to watch - if McCain takes them, we'll be here a while. If they're called for Obama, it could be a quick night.

0.04 Sky News calls Vermont (3) for Obama. No surprises in either result.

McCain 8
Obama 3

0.01 Sky News, FoxNews and ABC call Kentucky (8) for McCain

McCain 8
Obama 0

0.00 Polls close in 6 states

23.55 FiveThirtyEight.com has a slightly different starting point with regards "safe" states for both candidates - giving Obama a 224-110 lead. They also project Obama taking another 87 to win 311-167.

23.50 I never realised this would be so confusing - I have four windows open, with 5 tabs in each and Sky News on. How am I going to manage when the results actually start coming in?!!

23.40 With no results announced yet, Fox News has started its "post-mortem" into the election already with this analysis. Makes interesting reading.

23.31 First precincts reporting in Indiana - 1% have reported. Split 55-44% for Obama after that 1%. 11 Electoral College votes there.

23.30 Radio Five Live has a Republican pollster on, saying exit polls in Indiana, Ohio and Florida too close to call... long time to go on them though.

23.24 Some polls (but not all of them!) have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. That happened at 23.00 here. Should have some kinda call on those two at around midnight.

23.15 Is it just me that finds it odd that California will still be voting when some of the results in the East are announced? I know it is a logistic thing - the size of the States makes it difficult, but I find that strange. Of course, California will vote Obama (there's no question) but people will know who has won before they vote - does that make their vote less valuable?

23.10 Sky News has a starting point of Obama 228 McCain 118 based on polling. If that is indeed the way it goes, Ohio and Pennsylvania would put Obama on 269 - one short of the magic 270. Which means that the early states - Indiana, Virginia etc, might not matter at all. But again, thats only a projection - no results yet.

23.06 I know I said earlier to be cautious with exit polls, and I will be. But the way I was saying was not to read to much of them in Obama's favour - that more people would tell pollsters they were voting for Obama. But these early exits show something different - a shift away from Obama. Hope for McCain? Or straw-clutching?

23.00 (GMT) Fox News reporting that late ballots will be kept in Virginia - but not necessarily counted. Will this make a difference? Or will it be so far out of the way by then?

22.50 (GMT): Interesting flowchart for the election here. Shows what happens when someone wins a state and the potential for a win.

22.30 (GMT): Okay, I have Sky News on the TV, Mrs in the Burgh is away to bed and I have the first of what I expect will be several cups of tea in front of me. Guess it is time to begin!

Give me a shout if there's anyone about, we can get a debate going. Is this going to end in anything other than an Obama win?

Read more...

Blogging the US election

Shameless plug for my friends over at The Right Student, who have started liveblogging the election already. They've been on since about noon, which by my reckoning means they'll be at it around 17 or 18 hours before we have a result... that is dedication.

I'll start around 10.30pm GMT - which is still around an hour and a half before polls close in the first states (Virginia and Indiana - 12 midnight GMT/ 7pm EST). I'll probably still be going at about 5am GMT (which will be midnight EST - I think, I'm rubbish at conversions!).

So if you want a more conservative, Obama-leaning viewpoint you know where to go. There or Iain Dale's Diary I suppose.

Or you could stay here and tough it out with me. Entirely your call - but I'd enjoy the company! :)

Read more...