Glenrothes: Analysis
Well, after Glasgow East I indulged in a spot of analysis, so I thought I'd do the same for Glenrothes. I think my immediate post-match analysis (so to speak!) pretty much covers it, though I'll go into a bit more detail here.
Labour - undoubtedly a good night. By winning more votes than his popoular predecessor John MacDougall (19,946 to 19,385) Lindsay Roy ensured that Labour would hold the seat next door to the Prime Minister's. Based on the huge turnout and the upturn in economic circumstances (with Labour coloured glasses on of course) Roy was able to hold off a 5% swing to the SNP. The Scotsman attributes the win to a "Brown Bounce" which I'm not sure really exists. I just think Labour were very much able to get their vote out. Also don't think people were quite as willing to give the Prime Minister another kick - especially after he was kicked so hard in Glasgow East.
SNP - For the SNP it was a disappointing night. After suggestions (promises?) from the First Minister that they were going to win the seat, they had to settle for slashing Labour's majority from 10,000+ to 6,700. Not quite the result they had hoped for. Despite falling short, the party have succeeded in increasing their vote share by 13% and adding 5,000 votes to the SNP's pile in Glenrothes however, which is a good result. The BBC questions whether this result has burst the SNP's bubble. I'd argue not really, for a couple of reasons - and this is not spin.
First up, as an academic, it is easy to spot electoral trends. In Westminster elections - which voters still treat as primary elections - they look for a party that can act on the UK stage. They are much happier to give their vote to the SNP in Scottish Parliament elections where they see that the party can make a difference. Second, Glenrothes is vastly different from Glasgow East, both in terms of the make-up of the seat and the political circumstances. The SNP run the council here (in Glasgow it is Labour) which has contributed to the perception of incumbency - and they've had to defend their record. Plus the urge to kick the Prime Minister was not as pronounced here.
Conservatives - for the Tories, well it was a mixed night. They did well to overturn the Lib Dems and finish third, but they lost their deposit. However, Glenrothes is not exactly fertile voting territory for the Conservatives, and the fact that they've beaten out the Lib Dems for third suggests something for them to cheer about.
Lib Dems - Oh dear. Without attempting to bait Stephen or Caron, where to start. For the second by-election in a row the Lib Dems have fallen to fourth and lost their deposit. And I could replicate this post here. Apparently there was even talk that the Lib Dems - with nearby seats in North East Fife (Menzies Campbell) and Dunfermline and West Fife (Willie Rennie) could even win the seat. With that in mind, how did the party only end up taking 947 votes? I know - it was a classic two-party fight (something which I pointed out here) which squeezed their vote. But for a party that claims to be the third party, the "real alternative" government, surely this is not just a bad result, its an unmitigated disaster?
I know I'm a bit unfair to the Lib Dems in criticism sometimes - and this may look like I'm diverting attention from a disappointing night for the SNP. You'll have to trust me that is not my intention - for I even did this after Glasgow East (when the SNP won). I'm just struggling to see what the Lib Dems stand for now - and I think, so were the voters in both Glasgow East and Glenrothes. Much was made of their win in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, but if the party are not careful, Willie Rennie probably won't be returning to Westminster after the next election... and Ming Campbell won't exactly have a cakewalk in North East Fife (though he should be safe enough). So Stephen and Caron, I know you guys were both out in Glenrothes and for that I'll praise your dedication. But two lost deposits in a row - are you fighting a lost cause?
So here we are. Congratulations to Lindsay Roy MP on winning the election (and proving my hunch correct!). Each of the parties has lessons to learn from Glenrothes though.
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Labour - undoubtedly a good night. By winning more votes than his popoular predecessor John MacDougall (19,946 to 19,385) Lindsay Roy ensured that Labour would hold the seat next door to the Prime Minister's. Based on the huge turnout and the upturn in economic circumstances (with Labour coloured glasses on of course) Roy was able to hold off a 5% swing to the SNP. The Scotsman attributes the win to a "Brown Bounce" which I'm not sure really exists. I just think Labour were very much able to get their vote out. Also don't think people were quite as willing to give the Prime Minister another kick - especially after he was kicked so hard in Glasgow East.
SNP - For the SNP it was a disappointing night. After suggestions (promises?) from the First Minister that they were going to win the seat, they had to settle for slashing Labour's majority from 10,000+ to 6,700. Not quite the result they had hoped for. Despite falling short, the party have succeeded in increasing their vote share by 13% and adding 5,000 votes to the SNP's pile in Glenrothes however, which is a good result. The BBC questions whether this result has burst the SNP's bubble. I'd argue not really, for a couple of reasons - and this is not spin.
First up, as an academic, it is easy to spot electoral trends. In Westminster elections - which voters still treat as primary elections - they look for a party that can act on the UK stage. They are much happier to give their vote to the SNP in Scottish Parliament elections where they see that the party can make a difference. Second, Glenrothes is vastly different from Glasgow East, both in terms of the make-up of the seat and the political circumstances. The SNP run the council here (in Glasgow it is Labour) which has contributed to the perception of incumbency - and they've had to defend their record. Plus the urge to kick the Prime Minister was not as pronounced here.
Conservatives - for the Tories, well it was a mixed night. They did well to overturn the Lib Dems and finish third, but they lost their deposit. However, Glenrothes is not exactly fertile voting territory for the Conservatives, and the fact that they've beaten out the Lib Dems for third suggests something for them to cheer about.
Lib Dems - Oh dear. Without attempting to bait Stephen or Caron, where to start. For the second by-election in a row the Lib Dems have fallen to fourth and lost their deposit. And I could replicate this post here. Apparently there was even talk that the Lib Dems - with nearby seats in North East Fife (Menzies Campbell) and Dunfermline and West Fife (Willie Rennie) could even win the seat. With that in mind, how did the party only end up taking 947 votes? I know - it was a classic two-party fight (something which I pointed out here) which squeezed their vote. But for a party that claims to be the third party, the "real alternative" government, surely this is not just a bad result, its an unmitigated disaster?
I know I'm a bit unfair to the Lib Dems in criticism sometimes - and this may look like I'm diverting attention from a disappointing night for the SNP. You'll have to trust me that is not my intention - for I even did this after Glasgow East (when the SNP won). I'm just struggling to see what the Lib Dems stand for now - and I think, so were the voters in both Glasgow East and Glenrothes. Much was made of their win in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, but if the party are not careful, Willie Rennie probably won't be returning to Westminster after the next election... and Ming Campbell won't exactly have a cakewalk in North East Fife (though he should be safe enough). So Stephen and Caron, I know you guys were both out in Glenrothes and for that I'll praise your dedication. But two lost deposits in a row - are you fighting a lost cause?
So here we are. Congratulations to Lindsay Roy MP on winning the election (and proving my hunch correct!). Each of the parties has lessons to learn from Glenrothes though.
