The Audacity of asking people to Hope

Barack Obama has been President of the United States of America for a whole year now. 365 days.

Remember this time last year? The inaugural address. The inspired scenes. Massive crowds. Words warm enough to break the chill of a Washington January day. That last one is perhaps poetic licence, but work with me here - President Obama's inauguration was a big deal. His election was "change you can believe in". Whenever he asked if he could do something the response was "Yes we can".

So, one year and one Nobel peace prize later, what has President Obama actually achieved?

• He set a deadline for the closure of Guantanamo Bay (Jan 2010) then admits that it won't close then.
• The US are still fighting wars in Iraq (despite Obama formally announcing a withdrawal) and increasing troops in Afghanistan... and still losing support.
• He has passed some healthcare reform through Congress... but the two bills in the House and Senate respectively are vastly different and may not find common enough ground to make the difference Obama's healthcare package was supposed to. Especially in the Senate.
• He has presided over an economy that saw a 9 month rise in unemployment in the US from 7.6% to 9.8% (Jan-Sept 2009).
• He promised (again) to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" in the US military, but sets no timeline or deadline.
• He's lost a Senate race in Massachusetts (well, he didn't, his party did) costing an opportunity to pass healthcare reform.

Of course I'm maybe being slightly harsh here. He has also reversed the Bush decision on stem-cell research, signed a stimulus package, helped out banks and car industry and, erm, got a dog for his kids. I'm sure there is more. Actually, I'm not sure... but there must be. Any Americans I've pissed off with this post should feel free to give me a list of achievements...

Maybe I'm just a born cynic, but I don't think its unfair to have expected more from the first year of his presidency. Or was the "change you can believe in" merely a symbolic change?

A change is gonna come, but it might be a long time coming...

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Five reasons Obama won, and five why McCain lost

Okay, so having still had very little (4 hours) sleep and an incessantly chirpy world media, I thought I'd weigh in with a little analysis of why what happened happened, and why what might have happened didn't happen. And what might happen now that what happened happened. If you see what I mean.

So here are five reasons why Obama won the election:

1) The country was ready for "change we can believe in." Not quite as succinct as "It's time" but I guess the same principle. Obama's message was simple: Washington needs changed - and he was the man to do it. And that message resonated with voters.

2) He got the vote out. Obama's appeal was not just to the African American vote, nor to young people (who saw him as "cool"). He talked to all parts of society. His campaign also pulled in a huge number of first-time voters after massive registration-drives across the country.

3) The massive campaign warchest. By election day it totalled over £400m ($650m), with which McCain - limiting himself to the federal limit - could not compete.

4) Celebrity appeal. At rallies across the country, Obama spoke to crowds running up to 100,000 people. And he spoke with an effortlessness, a certain (if you pardon the cliche) je ne sais quoi. You don't know what it is, but you know it when you see it. And Obama had it - at least for 63 million Americans.

5) America has itself changed. Just over half a century ago, civil rights activists saw a huge victory in stopping segregation on buses. Fifty years later, America has, finally, elected an African American to the highest office in the land. And yes - seeing the Rev Jesse Jackson with tears streaming down his face did pull at a heartstring or two here.

And here are five reasons that McCain lost:
1) The economy
2) The campaign he was forced to run (ie - to the right)
3) The choice of Sarah Palin as running mate
4) Eight years of George W Bush representing the Republican party
5) He was running against a force of nature

Thoughts?

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A change is gonna come

I haven't had a chance to see President-Elect Obama's acceptance speech yet. But I understand from various sources that it was a pretty good speech - and a pretty emotional moment. "Change has to come to America", so says the first African American ever elected to the office of the President of the United States, America's 44th President.

Despite backing his Republican rival for the Presidency, I'm not overly disappointed that Obama has won (except for the money it would have made me had it gone the other way). I think McCain was the right candidate for the Republicans, though presumably the Republicans could have run a dynasty of Kennedy's against Obama and he would likely still have won. America has spoken its desire for change, and that change, as Sam Cooke would say, is gonna come. I'm hopeful for the future of America and the world under the stewardship of Obama.

So here's hoping that his "Bob the Builder" mantra - "YES WE CAN" - is something he can deliver on. But those questions are for tomorrow. Today he, America and, I guess, a large portion of the world, celebrate the shattering of racial barriers in the US and a new President.

I'll do more in the way of analysis later, but I'll leave you with Sam Cooke.

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Congratulations President-Elect Obama

Time to live up to the change that has been promised... America expects. I hope he delivers. Congratulations America on the giant step forward your society has taken today.

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US election - LIVE BLOG #3

UPDATE 11.25 I was going to round off the numbers, but there are still a couple of states that remain uncalled. Sky News has Montana (3) and Alaska (3) for McCain. And Indiana (11) for Obama. Not that it really matters now.

McCain 161
Obama 349

Still to call: North Carolina (15) (leaning Obama) and Missouri (11) (leaning McCain. If those were to go that way, final state by state would read:

McCain 172
Obama 364

But I'll hold off on that for a little while.

4.45 It is nearly 5am here and I'm calling it a night. There are still five states in play - Alaska, Missouri (probably McCain), Montana (probably Obama) and Indiana and North Carolina (probably Obama but too close to call really).

I'd like to thank everyone who has commented/ read these meanderings over the past 6(!) hours. Hope you've enjoyed it. I'll be back with some analysis in a few hours - after I've had some sleep. And then there's Glenrothes on Thursday. Arrabest!

4.38 Sky News has Nevada (5) for Obama as well.

McCain 155
Obama 338

4.36 Sky News calls Colorado (9) for Obama.

McCain 155
Obama 333

4.30 I really hope that Obama considers offering McCain a Cabinet post - or am I going a but West Wing Season 7 on you all?

4.25 McCain's concession speech really is something.

4.20 Sky News calls Florida (27) for Obama. Getting near that landslide that I said wouldn't happen... but Arizona (10) called for native McCain.

McCain 155
Obama 324

4.18 McCain on stage in Arizona.

4.17 Colorado, Indiana and FLORIDA projected for Obama by various US networks. No confirmation yet.

4.11 McCain has called Obama and conceded the election; about to address crowd in Arizona.

4.04 Sky News calls Califonia (55), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4) and Washington (11) for Obama, Idaho (4) for McCain

McCain 145
Obama 297

4.02 SKY NEWS CALLS ELECTION FOR BARACK OBAMA - 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA


4.01 Sky News calls VIRGINIA (13) for Obama. That's almost all folks...

McCain 141
Obama 220

4.00 Polls closed in California, Washington and Oregon.

3.59 McCain to address rally shortly - in about a minute and a half apparently.

3.58 California on the verge of declaring for Obama... is there a slightly overweight woman warming up her vocal chords somewhere?

3.50 Fox and AP are calling Virginia for Obama. Looks like the tipping point, would put Obama on 220 - with California's 55 putting him over the top. Concession speech on the way?

3.44 36 states have now been called

3.40 Sky News calls South Dakota (3) for McCain.

McCain 141
Obama 207

3.33 Sky News projects McCain to win 3 of Nebraska's EC votes (split college).

McCain 138
Obama 207

3.26 Question being asked on Sky News: "Where were you when Barack Obama was elected as the first African American US President?" Well, I was right here, bringing the news to you!

3.17 There's a guy being interviewed on Sky News just now - his name is Bob Weiner. That's my moment of light-hearted humour for the morning.

3.12 Sky News: John McCain "moments away" from a concession speech... one more state for Obama (plus California's 55 votes) will tip it.

3.01 Sky News: Obama wins Iowa (7), McCain wins Utah (5), Mississippi (6)

McCain 135
Obama 207

3.00 Sky News does indeed give Texas (34) to McCain.

McCain 124
Obama 200

2.55 BBC, ABC both call Texas for McCain, though I'll still hold off on that until Sky News...

2.52 ABC projects that Mississippi will, unsurprisingly, go red.

2.50 According to MSNBC, the popular vote figures at 50%-49% to Obama - with 36 million votes counted...

2.44 With California, Oregon and Washington state to come (which will, in all likelihood, go Democrat) we're looking at Obama making 284 without too much trouble - passing 270 with some ease. And I should have taken some money on Obama...

2.40 Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah shortly... not that they are going to matter much!

2.33 Sky News calls Louisiana (9) for McCain, New Mexico (5) for Obama.

McCain 90
Obama 200

2.32 I keep saying this, but Florida still too close to call.

2.30 New thread required I feel for the imminent conclusion of this race... and a picture of the man who presumably will be the 44th President of the United States of America.

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US election - LIVE BLOG #2

2.28 Looking like its over - but I'll shift to another thread for the conclusion.

2.24 MASSIVE MOMENT Sky News - Obama WINS OHIO. 20 EV for him... surely over now.

McCain 81
Obama 195

2.23 Democrats have retained control of the Senate. They now have 52 Senators. Running up the score now.

2.20 FoxNews projects OHIO for Obama - again. Based on 9% of the precincts reporting. If that goes blue, they can start opening the champagne...

2.14 In fact, looking at the whole map... and taking out the states that haven't changed hands in years - McCain can only really afford to lose Nevada. He'd need to win everywhere else - Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Mexico and Colorado. And that is a big ask.

2.12 Forgetting Florida and Ohio - which would make it big - if Obama can find a win in Colorado, he's pretty much got it won.

2.10 Kansas (6) for McCain - Sky News.

McCain 81
Obama 175

2.08 We're getting into the realms of winning territory now - Sky News calls Michigan (17) for Obama. McCain takes Wyoming (3).

McCain 75
Obama 175

2.06 Sky News calls Minnesota (10), Rhode Island (4) for Obama

McCain 72
Obama 158

2.04 Sky News calls North Dakota (3) for McCain.

McCain 72
Obama 144

2.03 Sky News calls New York (31), Wisconsin (10) for Obama

McCain 69
Obama 144

2.01 Fox calls OHIO for Obama but retracts...

2.01 Fox gives Obama Wisconsin, New Mexico, New York

2.00 Some more projections imminent...

1.53 Five more polls close in seven minutes.

1.43 Sky News also calls Georgia (15) - for McCain. Something of a revival?

McCain 69
Obama 103

1.42 Sky News finally calls Connecticut for Obama. My numbers are aligned again.

McCain 54
Obama 103

1.40 Irvine Welsh (of "Trainspotting" authoring fame) is on Sky News, being interviewed in Florida. They're still calling it as "too close" but Obama ahead by a nose... THAT really would be curtains.

1.32 Arkansas (6), Alabama (9) and Oklahoma (7) all called for McCain by Sky News.

McCain 54
Obama 103 (-7 CONN is 96)

1.30 Sky News gives Obama Illinois (21) - but hasn't yet called Connecticut which I have - which I think is where the numbers are skewed.

McCain 32
Obama 103 (-7 CONN is 96)

1.29 Sky News gives Obama Pennsylvania (21).... and I think, the election.

McCain 32
Obama 82

1.23 Arkansas polls close at 1.30 GMT. ABC and MSNBC call Oklahoma for McCain. I'm still waiting for Sky for Penn. Polls showing Obama ahead in Ohio as well, Florida too close to call.

1.19 Sky News gives Obama New Jersey (15).

McCain 32
Obama 61

1.16 For some reason Sky has the score as 39-32. And I can't work out why!

1.13 Sky News calls New Hampshire (4) for Obama.

McCain 32
Obama 46

1.12 ABC also projects Pennsylvania for Obama too...

1.08 MSNBC has projected Pennsylvania - crucially - for Obama... but no other networks calling it yet. That's potentially game over.

1.04 Delaware (3), Maine (4), Connecticut (7), Washington D.C (3) for Obama; Tennessee (11) for McCain.

McCain 32
Obama 42

1.03 Sky News also calls Maryland (10) for Obama.

McCain 21
Obama 25

1.02 Sky News calls Mass. for Obama.

McCain 21
Obama 15

1.01 Fox News projects Massachusetts (12 votes) for Obama. I'm waiting for Sky to call it as well before I update.

1.00 15 more states close polls. Plus D.C I won't list them all. But includes Pennsylvania and Florida - two key states. Incidentally, Sky News says Georgia is too close to call.

0.51 Sky News gives McCain South Carolina with 8 Electoral Votes.

McCain 21
Obama 3

00.47 I need another cup of tea.

0.45 Republican commentator on Sky News telling us that Palin has won over a lot of disaffected Hillary voters. Anyone buy it?

0.43 With 12% of precincts reporting in Indiana, CNN has McCain leading 51-48. That's a biggie - long way to go yet.

0.41 (GMT) I took the photo below. True story. Everyone having a good time?

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US election - LIVE BLOG

0.35 Ohio and North Carolina too close to call. And I'm going to start a new thread - this is getting massive!

0.31 Fox News - and now Sky News - are calling West Virginia (5) for McCain. I must have been a wee bit early with that!

McCain 13
Obama 3

0.30 Polls close in Ohio (super-swing state - might be the tipping point if Obama takes it) West Virginia and North Carolina.

0.26 Scratch the WV chat... I might have read the map wrong... Still only 2 states called.

0.24 FoxNews calls West Virginia (5) for McCain. No other networks has that yet.

0.15 MSNBC has Indiana as Too Close To Call. To reiterate, McCain really needs to win it if he's to keep the race going.

0.09 Just to recap, the states where polls closed at midnight (GMT) are Georgia, Kentucky (RED) South Carolina, Vermont (BLUE), Indiana and Virginia.

Indiana and Virginia the ones to watch - if McCain takes them, we'll be here a while. If they're called for Obama, it could be a quick night.

0.04 Sky News calls Vermont (3) for Obama. No surprises in either result.

McCain 8
Obama 3

0.01 Sky News, FoxNews and ABC call Kentucky (8) for McCain

McCain 8
Obama 0

0.00 Polls close in 6 states

23.55 FiveThirtyEight.com has a slightly different starting point with regards "safe" states for both candidates - giving Obama a 224-110 lead. They also project Obama taking another 87 to win 311-167.

23.50 I never realised this would be so confusing - I have four windows open, with 5 tabs in each and Sky News on. How am I going to manage when the results actually start coming in?!!

23.40 With no results announced yet, Fox News has started its "post-mortem" into the election already with this analysis. Makes interesting reading.

23.31 First precincts reporting in Indiana - 1% have reported. Split 55-44% for Obama after that 1%. 11 Electoral College votes there.

23.30 Radio Five Live has a Republican pollster on, saying exit polls in Indiana, Ohio and Florida too close to call... long time to go on them though.

23.24 Some polls (but not all of them!) have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. That happened at 23.00 here. Should have some kinda call on those two at around midnight.

23.15 Is it just me that finds it odd that California will still be voting when some of the results in the East are announced? I know it is a logistic thing - the size of the States makes it difficult, but I find that strange. Of course, California will vote Obama (there's no question) but people will know who has won before they vote - does that make their vote less valuable?

23.10 Sky News has a starting point of Obama 228 McCain 118 based on polling. If that is indeed the way it goes, Ohio and Pennsylvania would put Obama on 269 - one short of the magic 270. Which means that the early states - Indiana, Virginia etc, might not matter at all. But again, thats only a projection - no results yet.

23.06 I know I said earlier to be cautious with exit polls, and I will be. But the way I was saying was not to read to much of them in Obama's favour - that more people would tell pollsters they were voting for Obama. But these early exits show something different - a shift away from Obama. Hope for McCain? Or straw-clutching?

23.00 (GMT) Fox News reporting that late ballots will be kept in Virginia - but not necessarily counted. Will this make a difference? Or will it be so far out of the way by then?

22.50 (GMT): Interesting flowchart for the election here. Shows what happens when someone wins a state and the potential for a win.

22.30 (GMT): Okay, I have Sky News on the TV, Mrs in the Burgh is away to bed and I have the first of what I expect will be several cups of tea in front of me. Guess it is time to begin!

Give me a shout if there's anyone about, we can get a debate going. Is this going to end in anything other than an Obama win?

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Blogging the US election

Shameless plug for my friends over at The Right Student, who have started liveblogging the election already. They've been on since about noon, which by my reckoning means they'll be at it around 17 or 18 hours before we have a result... that is dedication.

I'll start around 10.30pm GMT - which is still around an hour and a half before polls close in the first states (Virginia and Indiana - 12 midnight GMT/ 7pm EST). I'll probably still be going at about 5am GMT (which will be midnight EST - I think, I'm rubbish at conversions!).

So if you want a more conservative, Obama-leaning viewpoint you know where to go. There or Iain Dale's Diary I suppose.

Or you could stay here and tough it out with me. Entirely your call - but I'd enjoy the company! :)

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McCain: eight years too late?

Here's a good piece which looks at the campaign (assuming an Obama win...) and asks whether how the Republican campaign has gone is the fault of John McCain.

It makes a number of good points about McCain - points which serial-commenter Sam has made in the comments on previous posts.

These concern McCain's past incarnation as:

• anti-establishment
• anti-Republican
• anti-conservative
• pro-immigration reform
• pro-media
• pro-bipartisanship

But during the election, Obama's team have succeeded in tagging McCain as:

• pro-Bush
• too status quo
• too conservative
• anti-Hispanic
• anti-media.

I've argued before that he was forced right by the media's love affair with Obama and was never going to win this election on the centre ground, meaning there was only one place he could go - right. And he did, with his VP pick, his attacks on Obama as a 'socialist' and his politics.

I'm not convinced it was a mistake to go right. But, if he loses, will the margin of defeat be any consolation? I doubt it.

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Lies, damn lies and polls

I'll be brief with this one:

Great piece over at politicalbetting emphasising what I've been saying for weeks about polls - that is, that those supporting Obama are more likely to participate in the polls.

Please remember 2000 and this.
The point I'm making? Don't start counting chickens (or states) until after the results are in - and not just the exit polls.

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Today's the day

I'll probably be blogging pretty relentlessly today, with a couple of posts to set the scene for the upcoming battle as well as a long night of liveblogging from 10.30pm GMT, with hopes that we should know - for sure - who the next President of the United States is by around 5am GMT.

So here's the first of today's blogs.

First up, take a look here for an hour-by-hour guide to election night and what to look for when. I'll probably be returning to this later on to give an outline of early results.

Also, if you are into your numbers, FiveThirtyEight.com is a good place to go for stats and poll analysis They've run the numbers around 10,000 times - with Obama winning 90%+ of the time.

FoxNews has an interactive map here which will be updated throughout the night. MSNBC also have this feature and it is here. ABC's coverage is here. And you know I have them all bookmarked...

One more piece for the early morning post. ABC's George Stephanopoulos has 6 states to watch early on - Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Florida. Apparently McCain's campaign have said they need to win 5 out of those 6. But realistically, if he's to win, he'd probably have to win Pennsylvania - as well as the 5 other states that Bush won in 2004.

There's a long day ahead. Drink plenty fluids.

And if you have a vote, make sure you use it!

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Obama's media

Tremendous article in the Guardian (how many times will I use THAT phrase?!) on Saturday which goes a long way to explaining some of the things I'd been trying to say in the comments on this piece. Hat-tip to my Canadian friend who spotted the story and sent it my way.

Harold Evans' opening line sums up neatly how this Presidential race has been run (read: reported on in the US media):

In this 2008 race, it's the American media that have voted very early and often. They long ago elected the star graduate of Chicago's Democratic machine, Barack Obama.

Now, for some readers, this will appear that I'm getting my excuses in early, that I'm already finding reasons that McCain won't win. Although that may appear to be the case, I can assure you it isn't.

All I'm doing is highlighting a fact of the campaign - that the US MSM has been pulling for Obama, whether they'll admit to it or not.

Equally, as I've been arguing, the media's "coronation" of "The One" has influenced how McCain's campaign has played out - from forcing him into a low-percentage, high-risk VP pick to running to the right and emphasising what makes him different from Obama rather than challenging him on the issues in the centre (where, arguably, he is more comfortable positioning himself as a "maverick" Republican).

Incidentally, according to an AP-Yahoo poll released on Friday, one in seven votes remain undecided - five days out. I'm not sure what that says to other people, but I'd read it like this: 14% of American voters are not convinced by the arguments of either candiate. I guess I'd argue that might favour McCain slightly - if you go with the theory that Obama is the "Change Candidate" then McCain is the "I'll change some things but I'm not as radical as Obama" guy - and one which might be the recipient of voters who want change, but not too much.

In terms of "Undecideds" in the past they have tended to go against the incumbent - which is bad for McCain (if Obama's McCain IS Bush attacks have been successful). However, there is no individual incumbent in this election. On the other hand, with the huge poll leads and the media coverage that Obama has, he has been treated as an incumbent might have been - as this post demonstrates. Which makes it interesting.

Also, as a last thought. Latest odds from Ladbrokes:
Obama to win: 1/12
McCain to win: 6/1

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A potential life-changing event

Strange what some people think is important eh? Speaking to partner's brother:

Me: "US election next week."

Him: "Yeah. It's the 2nd of November eh?"

Me: "Eh no... the fourth."

Him: "So it is. I've got something important in my diary for the second though."

*thinks for a minute*

Him: "Oh yeah... the new series of Top Gear starts on the second!"


I thought he was joking until I got this text from him: "Flatmate has gone for a shower so she doesn't disturb me. Girlfriend isn't allowed to come over until 9pm after it is finished... naturally this is overshadowing election a little.

Clarkson for Prime Minister anyone?

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Was picking Palin a mistake?

I wrote before (in August) about the wisdom of selecting Sarah Palin as running mate on the Republican ticket. Among the six reasons I suggested she was a good pick for McCain were executive experience, her youthfulness, the fact that she was female and that she could energise the Republican (conservative) base with her views.

I suggested that with a "maverick" (moderate Republican) like McCain on the ticket the VP pick had to be someone that could appeal to conservatives to get the vote out. The fact that she was female was aimed at the pee-off Clinton supporters who were upset at her treatment by Obama and Democrats, while also attracting independents.

Two months later, like every Republican in America, I'm second-guessing that pick. While she has succeeded in energising the Republican base, potential cross-over Democrat voters that might have been won over by a woman on the ticket have been scared off by her conservative views.

At the time, I suggested that the choice of VP candidate for the Democrats would be made on the basis of someone who would win more states for them (and they went for what they needed - someone with clout in North East states) while the Republicans choice would be influenced by their need for someone to energise their base - which is what they went for.

However, might the Republicans have found someone who could have fulfilled that role while also winning more states - particularly in the North East? Someone, perhaps, like former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge? He'd certainly have the clout in Pennsylvania to perhaps swing it for McCain - but his pro-choice views would do little to appease the base who are already unconvinced by
McCain.

The decision to go with Palin has backfired in her inability to win battleground states for McCain, constant disagreements on policy issues with McCain himself and, well, Tina Fey's caricature of her hits quite close to home. Republican sources are starting to question the decision and ask whether other picks would have aided the campaign more.

I guess after the election there will be more of a discussion of the pick... when we know for sure whether it was a good or bad pick. I think if things had turned out differently to this point, and she'd done what was expected of her, then this discussion wouldn't be happening. But she's become the yardstick by which the Republican ticket is measured, and turned polls from what was a McCain lead to an Obama landslide. In that respect, and in so many others, Palin on the ticket has backfired for McCain.

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Vero Possumus (yes we can)

Barack Obama stopped using this on seal on podium events in June after being ridiculed in the press for arrogance.

Looking arrogant in the face of double-digit poll leads is bad for Obama. And he's apparently been quite wary of talking up his chances before next week.

However, he's apparently pretty close to working out who'd be in his Cabinet should he win next week. Which is either starting to count chickens or being prepared well in advance - depending what side you fall on.

Obama needs people to avoid thinking that the race is over - at least until after Tuesday when it actually will be over. Otherwise what commentators think will be a landslide might turn out somewhat differently...

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Obama ahead in 6 swing states

"If you believe in miracles you still believe in McCain."

so says Republican consultant Joe Gaylord of Arlington, Virginia.

MSNBC has Obama ahead by at least 7 points in Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia and tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida. FOX has an Obama national lead of 5.9%.

MSNBC also has Obama within the margin of error of taking McCain's home state of Arizona, where McCain leads in polls 46-44.

Plus my friend, currently on tour with his band in Minnesota says the campaign ads blitz is crazy and suggests the election will be a washout bigger than the World Series.

And you thought I'd avoid blogging about the US for one day!

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Rice to be next President.

It appears that Condoleezza Rice will not be in the next Cabinet - under either a McCain or Obama presidency... but she may yet be the next president.

It seems the San Francisco 49ers are apparently considering offering her a job as the team's new President.

Bet the title had you hooked...

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Five reasons the race isn't over

I see that Jeff has taken a break from his favourite subject to discuss the forthcoming US Presidential election - which is now only one week away. According to Jeff, it is all over. Heck, even John Swinney has apparently said he'd vote for Obama - according to Yousuf anyway.

I've been here before with this discussion, and there's a chance I'm well wrong, but as I'm in it now, I might as well be hanged for a sheep as a lamb. Or something equally Dickens-esq.

There are several reasons why I remain unconvinced that this thing is over.

1) Jeff mentions the Bradley Effect. While I'd hope that racial prejudice will not play a large part in this race, I've already posted a video that suggests that some, sadly, still see it as a factor which will influence their vote.

2) Obama's double-digit national lead is, I think, slightly overstated. I'd imagine, not necessarily the Bradley Effect, but a similar phenomenon. People who will vote for the Republicans are less likely to be vocal about it - and less likely to tell pollsters that they'll vote for McCain. Call it embarrassment if you want - and I probably would - but I'd say that Obama voters are more likely to speak to pollsters... which might be overstating his mark by as much as 5 points.

3) Congress is heading for large Democrat majorities in both the Senate and the House. Some outlets are even suggesting as many as 60 Democratic Senators after the election. If this were to occur alongside a Democratic Presidency, it would give President Obama huge, unchecked power. I'm not suggesting that he'd run amok - but I think the US Constitution was designed with a system of checks and balances, and a legislative branch of one party alongside an executive branch of another adds further checks to the process.

4) Sadly, stories like this. When my Gran asked me who I thought would win, I said McCain. She said "I hope so too. I don't have anything against that nice young Obama, but if he gets elected, someone will try to shoot him." I wish we didn't live in a world where that happened. I wonder of there are any Americans of similar mindset - that it'd be dangerous for Obama to get elected. Please don't get me wrong. I'm not saying "people won't vote for Obama for his own good." I'm saying... I don't know. That maybe people will think that having Obama as President is risking his life and out of respect for his life they should vote for the other guy? Nah, I don't buy it either... But I wanted to point out the risks that Obama is taking for his vision - and that he should perhaps be shown even more respect because of that.

5) Finally, the Electoral College. Despite polls to the contrary (see above) I still think states like Florida, Virginia and even Pennsylvania might yet turn for McCain.

What do you think? Am I clutching at straws in the hope I can make £200 out of it? Or are the five reasons I've given not actually scraping the barrel?

You all know I'm working on guesswork and hunches being as far away from the action Stateside as I possibly could be. But I've nailed my colours to the mast... and if (when) the ship sinks, I'll be going down with it! If nothing else, I'll have given Jeff something to think about (and perhaps respond to) for five minutes.

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"Greening" America... or not.

Interesting wee story about a Green party candidate for the US Congress... who is running for office from a prison cell where he is currently serving time for election fraud.

I wonder how James feels about this. Last week he was delighted to be part of a global Green movement - which, sadly for him, failed to see any Greens elected in Canada. Maybe this isn't quite what he had in mind...

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US race tightens - or does it?

I know I said I thought the race would get closer before Nov 4th, but is it level already? According to this Associated Press poll it is.

Now, before anyone goes off explaining to me that the poll should be discounted because of AP's strict definition of a "likely voter" - in the main, being someone who has voted before, which discounts a lot of young, likely Obama, voters - I know. This poll has Obama at 44% and McCain at 43% - with a margin of error of + or - 3.5%. Which is closer to the way I think the race actually stands.

This poll contrasts with a number that I have recently mentioned - many giving Obama a double-digit lead.

Early voting has already opened in a number of states - which will surely be influenced by some on the polls.

This isn't so much analysis as commentary now, though I'll say what I've said before: this race is not over yet.

Polls are basically statistics. And as Aberdeen's eccentric former manager Ebbe Skovdahl stated, "Statistics are just like mini-skirts - they give you good ideas but hide the most important things."

Hmm.... quite.

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