Showing posts with label Speaker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Speaker. Show all posts

Monday, 22 June 2009

What is good for the goose...


The election for the new Speaker of the House of Commons takes place today. There are 10 candidates for the job:

Margaret Beckett (Lab)
Sir Alan Beith (Lib Dem)
John Bercow (Con)
Sir Patrick Cormack (Con)
Parmjit Dhanda (Lab)
Sir Alan Haselhurst (Con)
Sir Michael Lord (Con)
Richard Shepherd (Con)
Ann Widdecombe (Con)
Sir George Young (Con)

There are 646 MPs. Subtracting the 5 Sinn Fein MPs who don't take their seats, the one vacant seat (that of Labour MP Ian Gibson, who resigned as an MP) that leaves 640 MPs (at the very most) to vote. Assuming they are only allowed one vote each, how long do we thing that will take? An hour for 600+ MPs to file through voting lobbies? Maybe two?

Nah, don't be daft. It's expected to take all day.

The reason? It seems that our MPs think they've got the be democratic in electing their own Speaker, that the person who sits in that chair must have more than 50% of the MPs voting for them in order for them to have any legitimacy as Speaker. If no one does win 50% of the vote on the first ballot, the person who comes last will be eliminated from consideration and they will vote again. And again. And again - probably - until there are only 2 candidates remaining and one of them wins more than the other (and, thus more than 50% of the vote). This may take until 8pm this evening.

Which raises an interesting question. Why do MPs feel it is necessary that the person who keeps order in the House must have a mandate of more than 50% of the vote when some (most? I can't find figures) of them do not have that very same mandate?

Take this, most celebrated, example of the flaws in the First Past the Post electoral system - the 1992 result from Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber:

Sir Russell Johnston (Lib Dem) - 13,258 votes (26.0%)
D. Stewart (Lab)
- 12,800 (25.1%)

F.S. Ewing (SNP)
- 12,562 (24.7%)

J. Scott (Con)
- 11,517 (22.6%)

J. Martin (Green)
- 766 (1.5%)


The Liberal Democrats won the seat on barely a quarter of the vote. In fairness to the Lib Dems, this is one (the only?) instance where they have benefited from a system which is hugely unproportional. In 2005, they won 22% of the vote but only 9.6% of the seats and routinely get screwed by the system. It is one of the reasons they are vehemently pro-PR. The other, of course, is that PR is inherently more proportional and more democratic.

Labour's other MP for the blogosphere (no, not that one, he LOVES First Past the Post), the former minister Tom Watson, recently wrote about why he thinks the Alternative Vote electoral system needs to replace FPTP. He reckons (with some justification) that retaining FPTP is simply a sop to vested interests (read: MPs who are scared of losing their seats under a proportional system). Which is understandable. But if there is one thing the expenses scandal has taught us is that MPs sometimes put their own interests before those of their constituents. And that is not the way it should be.

So, I return to my original question. Why do MPs think the Speaker needs to be elected with over 50% of the vote? To have legitimacy. To have a mandate. To have authority. Call it what you want. But it is exactly the same thing that MPs (and, indeed, Governments) lack under a First Past the Post electoral system.

You can say what you want about the Speaker, the job he/ she will do and the candidates for the job. But the way in which they are elected to the post provides them with the authority to do the job. Unless, of course, the Labour Government Whips have anything to do with it...

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Tuesday, 19 May 2009

Better late than never


So, Michael Martin will step down as Speaker this afternoon in a statement in the Commons.

No confirmation yet on the timetable for his departure from the seat or whether he will return to the backbenches or step down from parliament entirely.

There are several options I guess:

1) He announces he will go at the end of the Parliamentary session - whenever Gordon Brown calls a General Election. Not exactly the favoured option of MPs who have lost all confidence in the man's ability to do his job.

2) He announces that he will stay on until a successor can be found - presumably just before the summer recess. Probably the smartest move - allowing time to select a new Speaker but would also mean ANOTHER summer Glasgow by-election for Labour to effectively defend.

3) He announces that he will go immediately. Nuclear option, which I don't believe he will go for - but it would be a "toys out of the pram" moment were he to do so.

Two big issues arise though: the vacancy for a new Speaker and a vacancy for an MP in Glasgow North-East.

The parties will be on election footing for both.

Predictions:

Vince Cable to win the Speakership. I think he has momentum and public support. As for the upcoming by-election... erm, I'm going to wait a wee while and have a think about it. Labour are not in a strong position, but it is a strongold area for them... but then again, so was Glasgow East.

Incisive analysis I know, but you get what you pay for!

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Monday, 18 May 2009

Speaker: Sorry... but that's it.

Obviously I gave him more credit than I should have.

What a farcical scene in the House of Commons. His statement was fine... but he let Members walk all over him with Points of Order which turned into a bash-the-Speaker-athon. MP after MP lined up to kick him, and he didn't get it. He's planning a meeting with party leaders to solve the crisis but doesn't realise that he has lost the confidence of MPs.

We need the debate, and we need it now. His time is over.

He's passed the buck to the PM to call the motion. Gordon Brown might want him to stay, but he's in a tough situation. It's either effectively sack the Speaker or call an election.

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Should he stay or should he go?

So - is the Speaker going to resign during his statement at 3.30pm?

I reckon so. I think he realises how much damage he has taken with Nick Clegg adding his (slightly more) high profile voice to those clamouring for his resignation. Despite some MPs putting together a half-hearted defence of his handling of the expenses and Damien Green affairs, it does appear that his number is up.

A couple of matters arise from any potential vacancy.

First (as Jeff discusses) is the potential by-election in Glasgow North-East which, despite being in Labour heartland territory, they wouldn't exactly be favoured to win.

And second, a discussion regarding who would be in line to replace him as Speaker. Iain Dale has run a couple of polls which raise a few interesting names, but it seems he has another idea - Vince Cable. Which, if you think about it, makes a decent amount of sense. Decent reputation, handled the economic collapse well for the Lib Dems, respected and - important for Labour MPs - he's not a Tory. He could be a decent shout.

Guess it is now just a wait and see what happens next job.

On another note, I'd like to say a quick thanks those who came out on Saturday to help me celebrate my "half-way to fifty" birthday. Special thanks to Jeff for the specially commissioned MitB gift (below) he gave to me. I'm sure it'll be a must have in Milan soon...

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