Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts

Wednesday, 5 November 2008

Five reasons Obama won, and five why McCain lost


Okay, so having still had very little (4 hours) sleep and an incessantly chirpy world media, I thought I'd weigh in with a little analysis of why what happened happened, and why what might have happened didn't happen. And what might happen now that what happened happened. If you see what I mean.

So here are five reasons why Obama won the election:

1) The country was ready for "change we can believe in." Not quite as succinct as "It's time" but I guess the same principle. Obama's message was simple: Washington needs changed - and he was the man to do it. And that message resonated with voters.


2) He got the vote out. Obama's appeal was not just to the African American vote, nor to young people (who saw him as "cool"). He talked to all parts of society. His campaign also pulled in a huge number of first-time voters after massive registration-drives across the country.


3) The massive campaign warchest. By election day it totalled over £400m ($650m), with which McCain - limiting himself to the federal limit - could not compete.


4) Celebrity appeal. At rallies across the country, Obama spoke to crowds running up to 100,000 people. And he spoke with an effortlessness, a certain (if you pardon the cliche) je ne sais quoi. You don't know what it is, but you know it when you see it. And Obama had it - at least for 63 million Americans.

5) America has
itself changed. Just over half a century ago, civil rights activists saw a huge victory in stopping segregation on buses. Fifty years later, America has, finally, elected an African American to the highest office in the land. And yes - seeing the Rev Jesse Jackson with tears streaming down his face did pull at a heartstring or two here.

And here are five reasons that McCain lost:

1) The economy
2) The campaign he was forced to run (ie - to the right)

3) The choice of Sarah Palin as running mate
4) Eight years of George W Bush representing the Republican party

5) He was running against a force of nature

Thoughts?

Read more...

US election - LIVE BLOG #3

UPDATE 11.25 I was going to round off the numbers, but there are still a couple of states that remain uncalled. Sky News has Montana (3) and Alaska (3) for McCain. And Indiana (11) for Obama. Not that it really matters now.
McCain 161
Obama 349

Still to call: North Carolina (15) (leaning Obama) and Missouri (11) (leaning McCain. If those were to go that way, final state by state would read:
McCain 172
Obama 364

But I'll hold off on that for a little while.

4.45
It is nearly 5am here and I'm calling it a night. There are still five states in play - Alaska, Missouri (probably McCain), Montana (probably Obama) and Indiana and North Carolina (probably Obama but too close to call really).

I'd like to thank everyone who has commented/ read these meanderings over the past 6(!) hours. Hope you've enjoyed it. I'll be back with some analysis in a few hours - after I've had some sleep. And then there's Glenrothes on Thursday. Arrabest!

4.38
Sky News has Nevada (5) for Obama as well.
McCain 155
Obama 338

4.36
Sky News calls Colorado (9) for Obama.
McCain 155
Obama 333

4.30
I really hope that Obama considers offering McCain a Cabinet post - or am I going a but West Wing Season 7 on you all?

4.25
McCain's concession speech really is something.

4.20
Sky News calls Florida (27) for Obama. Getting near that landslide that I said wouldn't happen... but Arizona (10) called for native McCain.
McCain 155
Obama 324

4.18
McCain on stage in Arizona.

4.17
Colorado, Indiana and FLORIDA projected for Obama by various US networks. No confirmation yet.

4.11
McCain has called Obama and conceded the election; about to address crowd in Arizona.

4.04
Sky News calls Califonia (55), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4) and Washington (11) for Obama, Idaho (4) for McCain
McCain 145
Obama 297

4.02 SKY NEWS CALLS ELECTION FOR BARACK OBAMA - 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA


4.01
Sky News calls VIRGINIA (13) for Obama. That's almost all folks...
McCain 141
Obama 220

4.00
Polls closed in California, Washington and Oregon.

3.59
McCain to address rally shortly - in about a minute and a half apparently.

3.58
California on the verge of declaring for Obama... is there a slightly overweight woman warming up her vocal chords somewhere?

3.50
Fox and AP are calling Virginia for Obama. Looks like the tipping point, would put Obama on 220 - with California's 55 putting him over the top. Concession speech on the way?

3.44
36 states have now been called

3.40
Sky News calls South Dakota (3) for McCain.
McCain 141
Obama 207

3.33
Sky News projects McCain to win 3 of Nebraska's EC votes (split college).
McCain 138
Obama 207

3.26
Question being asked on Sky News: "Where were you when Barack Obama was elected as the first African American US President?" Well, I was right here, bringing the news to you!

3.17
There's a guy being interviewed on Sky News just now - his name is Bob Weiner. That's my moment of light-hearted humour for the morning.

3.12
Sky News: John McCain "moments away" from a concession speech... one more state for Obama (plus California's 55 votes) will tip it.

3.01
Sky News: Obama wins Iowa (7), McCain wins Utah (5), Mississippi (6)
McCain 135
Obama 207

3.00
Sky News does indeed give Texas (34) to McCain.
McCain 124
Obama 200

2.55
BBC, ABC both call Texas for McCain, though I'll still hold off on that until Sky News...

2.52
ABC projects that Mississippi will, unsurprisingly, go red.

2.50
According to MSNBC, the popular vote figures at 50%-49% to Obama - with 36 million votes counted...

2.44
With California, Oregon and Washington state to come (which will, in all likelihood, go Democrat) we're looking at Obama making 284 without too much trouble - passing 270 with some ease. And I should have taken some money on Obama...

2.40
Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah shortly... not that they are going to matter much!

2.33
Sky News calls Louisiana (9) for McCain, New Mexico (5) for Obama.
McCain 90
Obama 200

2.32
I keep saying this, but Florida still too close to call.

2.30
New thread required I feel for the imminent conclusion of this race... and a picture of the man who presumably will be the 44th President of the United States of America.

Read more...

US election - LIVE BLOG #2

2.28 Looking like its over - but I'll shift to another thread for the conclusion.

2.24 MASSIVE MOMENT
Sky News - Obama WINS OHIO. 20 EV for him... surely over now.
McCain 81
Obama 195

2.23
Democrats have retained control of the Senate. They now have 52 Senators. Running up the score now.

2.20
FoxNews projects OHIO for Obama - again. Based on 9% of the precincts reporting. If that goes blue, they can start opening the champagne...

2.14
In fact, looking at the whole map... and taking out the states that haven't changed hands in years - McCain can only really afford to lose Nevada. He'd need to win everywhere else - Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Mexico and Colorado. And that is a big ask.

2.12
Forgetting Florida and Ohio - which would make it big - if Obama can find a win in Colorado, he's pretty much got it won.

2.10
Kansas (6) for McCain - Sky News.
McCain 81
Obama 175

2.08
We're getting into the realms of winning territory now - Sky News calls Michigan (17) for Obama. McCain takes Wyoming (3).
McCain 75
Obama 175

2.06
Sky News calls Minnesota (10), Rhode Island (4) for Obama
McCain 72
Obama 158

2.04
Sky News calls North Dakota (3) for McCain.
McCain 72
Obama 144

2.03
Sky News calls New York (31), Wisconsin (10) for Obama
McCain 69
Obama 144

2.01
Fox calls OHIO for Obama but retracts...

2.01
Fox gives Obama Wisconsin, New Mexico, New York

2.00
Some more projections imminent...

1.53
Five more polls close in seven minutes.

1.43
Sky News also calls Georgia (15) - for McCain. Something of a revival?
McCain 69
Obama 103

1.42
Sky News finally calls Connecticut for Obama. My numbers are aligned again.
McCain 54
Obama 103

1.40
Irvine Welsh (of "Trainspotting" authoring fame) is on Sky News, being interviewed in Florida. They're still calling it as "too close" but Obama ahead by a nose... THAT really would be curtains.

1.32
Arkansas (6), Alabama (9) and Oklahoma (7) all called for McCain by Sky News.
McCain 54
Obama 103 (-7 CONN is 96)

1.30
Sky News gives Obama Illinois (21) - but hasn't yet called Connecticut which I have - which I think is where the numbers are skewed.
McCain 32
Obama 103 (-7 CONN is 96)

1.29 Sky News gives Obama Pennsylvania (21).... and I think, the election.
McCain 32
Obama 82

1.23
Arkansas polls close at 1.30 GMT. ABC and MSNBC call Oklahoma for McCain. I'm still waiting for Sky for Penn. Polls showing Obama ahead in Ohio as well, Florida too close to call.

1.19
Sky News gives Obama New Jersey (15).
McCain 32
Obama 61

1.16
For some reason Sky has the score as 39-32. And I can't work out why!

1.13
Sky News calls New Hampshire (4) for Obama.
McCain 32
Obama 46

1.12
ABC also projects Pennsylvania for Obama too...

1.08
MSNBC has projected Pennsylvania - crucially - for Obama... but no other networks calling it yet. That's potentially game over.

1.04
Delaware (3), Maine (4), Connecticut (7), Washington D.C (3) for Obama; Tennessee (11) for McCain.
McCain 32
Obama 42

1.03
Sky News also calls Maryland (10) for Obama.
McCain 21
Obama 25

1.02 Sky News calls Mass. for Obama.
McCain 21
Obama 15

1.01
Fox News projects Massachusetts (12 votes) for Obama. I'm waiting for Sky to call it as well before I update.

1.00
15 more states close polls. Plus D.C I won't list them all. But includes Pennsylvania and Florida - two key states. Incidentally, Sky News says Georgia is too close to call.

0.51
Sky News gives McCain South Carolina with 8 Electoral Votes.
McCain 21
Obama 3

00.47
I need another cup of tea.

0.45
Republican commentator on Sky News telling us that Palin has won over a lot of disaffected Hillary voters. Anyone buy it?

0.43
With 12% of precincts reporting in Indiana, CNN has McCain leading 51-48. That's a biggie - long way to go yet.

0.41 (GMT)
I took the photo below. True story. Everyone having a good time?


Read more...

Tuesday, 4 November 2008

US election - LIVE BLOG

0.35 Ohio and North Carolina too close to call. And I'm going to start a new thread - this is getting massive!

0.31
Fox News - and now Sky News - are calling West Virginia (5) for McCain. I must have been a wee bit early with that!
McCain 13
Obama 3

0.30
Polls close in Ohio (super-swing state - might be the tipping point if Obama takes it) West Virginia and North Carolina.

0.26
Scratch the WV chat... I might have read the map wrong... Still only 2 states called.

0.24
FoxNews calls West Virginia (5) for McCain. No other networks has that yet.

0.15
MSNBC has Indiana as Too Close To Call. To reiterate, McCain really needs to win it if he's to keep the race going.

0.09
Just to recap, the states where polls closed at midnight (GMT) are Georgia, Kentucky (RED) South Carolina, Vermont (BLUE), Indiana and Virginia.

Indiana and Virginia the ones to watch - if McCain takes them, we'll be here a while. If they're called for Obama, it could be a quick night.

0.04
Sky News calls Vermont (3) for Obama. No surprises in either result.
McCain 8
Obama 3

0.01
Sky News, FoxNews and ABC call Kentucky (8) for McCain
McCain 8
Obama 0

0.00
Polls close in 6 states

23.55
FiveThirtyEight.com has a slightly different starting point with regards "safe" states for both candidates - giving Obama a 224-110 lead. They also project Obama taking another 87 to win 311-167.

23.50
I never realised this would be so confusing - I have four windows open, with 5 tabs in each and Sky News on. How am I going to manage when the results actually start coming in?!!

23.40
With no results announced yet, Fox News has started its "post-mortem" into the election already with this analysis. Makes interesting reading.

23.31
First precincts reporting in Indiana - 1% have reported. Split 55-44% for Obama after that 1%. 11 Electoral College votes there.

23.30
Radio Five Live has a Republican pollster on, saying exit polls in Indiana, Ohio and Florida too close to call... long time to go on them though.

23.24
Some polls (but not all of them!) have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. That happened at 23.00 here. Should have some kinda call on those two at around midnight.

23.15
Is it just me that finds it odd that California will still be voting when some of the results in the East are announced? I know it is a logistic thing - the size of the States makes it difficult, but I find that strange. Of course, California will vote Obama (there's no question) but people will know who has won before they vote - does that make their vote less valuable?

23.10
Sky News has a starting point of Obama 228 McCain 118 based on polling. If that is indeed the way it goes, Ohio and Pennsylvania would put Obama on 269 - one short of the magic 270. Which means that the early states - Indiana, Virginia etc, might not matter at all. But again, thats only a projection - no results yet.

23.06
I know I said earlier to be cautious with exit polls, and I will be. But the way I was saying was not to read to much of them in Obama's favour - that more people would tell pollsters they were voting for Obama. But these early exits show something different - a shift away from Obama. Hope for McCain? Or straw-clutching?

23.00 (GMT)
Fox News reporting that late ballots will be kept in Virginia - but not necessarily counted. Will this make a difference? Or will it be so far out of the way by then?

22.50 (GMT):
Interesting flowchart for the election here. Shows what happens when someone wins a state and the potential for a win.

22.30 (GMT)
: Okay, I have Sky News on the TV, Mrs in the Burgh is away to bed and I have the first of what I expect will be several cups of tea in front of me. Guess it is time to begin!

Give me a shout if there's anyone about, we can get a debate going. Is this going to end in anything other than an Obama win?

Read more...

Blogging the US election

Shameless plug for my friends over at The Right Student, who have started liveblogging the election already. They've been on since about noon, which by my reckoning means they'll be at it around 17 or 18 hours before we have a result... that is dedication.

I'll start around 10.30pm GMT - which is still around an hour and a half before polls close in the first states (Virginia and Indiana - 12 midnight GMT/ 7pm EST). I'll probably still be going at about 5am GMT (which will be midnight EST - I think, I'm rubbish at conversions!).


So if you want a more conservative, Obama-leaning viewpoint you know where to go. There or Iain Dale's Diary I suppose.

Or you could stay here and tough it out with me. Entirely your call - but I'd enjoy the company!
:)

Read more...

McCain: eight years too late?

Here's a good piece which looks at the campaign (assuming an Obama win...) and asks whether how the Republican campaign has gone is the fault of John McCain.

It makes a number of good points about McCain - points which serial-commenter Sam has made in the comments on previous posts.

These concern McCain's past incarnation as:
  • anti-establishment
  • anti-Republican
  • anti-conservative
  • pro-immigration reform
  • pro-media
  • pro-bipartisanship
But during the election, Obama's team have succeeded in tagging McCain as:
  • pro-Bush
  • too status quo
  • too conservative
  • anti-Hispanic
  • anti-media.
I've argued before that he was forced right by the media's love affair with Obama and was never going to win this election on the centre ground, meaning there was only one place he could go - right. And he did, with his VP pick, his attacks on Obama as a 'socialist' and his politics.

I'm not convinced it was a mistake to go right. But, if he loses, will the margin of defeat be any consolation? I doubt it.

Read more...

Friday, 31 October 2008

Was picking Palin a mistake?


I wrote before (in August) about the wisdom of selecting Sarah Palin as running mate on the Republican ticket. Among the six reasons I suggested she was a good pick for McCain were executive experience, her youthfulness, the fact that she was female and that she could energise the Republican (conservative) base with her views.

I suggested that with a "maverick" (moderate Republican) like McCain on the ticket the VP pick had to be someone that could appeal to conservatives to get the vote out. The fact that she was female was aimed at the pee-off Clinton supporters who were upset at her treatment by Obama and Democrats, while also attracting independents.

Two months later, like every Republican in America, I'm second-guessing that pick. While she has succeeded in energising the Republican base, potential cross-over Democrat voters that might have been won over by a woman on the ticket have been scared off by her conservative views.

At the time, I suggested that the choice of VP candidate for the Democrats would be made on the basis of someone who would win more states for them (and they went for what they needed - someone with clout in North East states) while the Republicans choice would be influenced by their need for someone to energise their base - which is what they went for.

However, might the Republicans have found someone who could have fulfilled that role while also winning more states - particularly in the North East? Someone, perhaps, like former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge? He'd certainly have the clout in Pennsylvania to perhaps swing it for McCain - but his pro-choice views would do little to appease the base who are already unconvinced by
McCain.

The decision to go with Palin has backfired in her inability to win battleground states for McCain, constant disagreements on policy issues with McCain himself and, well, Tina Fey's caricature of her hits quite close to home. Republican sources are starting to question the decision and ask whether other picks would have aided the campaign more.

I guess after the election there will be more of a discussion of the pick... when we know for sure whether it was a good or bad pick. I think if things had turned out differently to this point, and she'd done what was expected of her, then this discussion wouldn't be happening. But she's become the yardstick by which the Republican ticket is measured, and turned polls from what was a McCain lead to an Obama landslide. In that respect, and in so many others, Palin on the ticket has backfired for McCain.

Read more...

Wednesday, 29 October 2008

Obama ahead in 6 swing states

"If you believe in miracles you still believe in McCain."

so says Republican consultant Joe Gaylord of Arlington, Virginia.

MSNBC has Obama ahead by at least 7 points in Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia and tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida. FOX has an Obama national lead of 5.9%.

MSNBC also has Obama within the margin of error of taking McCain's home state of Arizona, where McCain leads in polls 46-44.

Plus my friend, currently on tour with his
band in Minnesota says the campaign ads blitz is crazy and suggests the election will be a washout bigger than the World Series.

And you thought I'd avoid blogging about the US for one day!

Read more...

Tuesday, 28 October 2008

Five reasons the race isn't over

I see that Jeff has taken a break from his favourite subject to discuss the forthcoming US Presidential election - which is now only one week away. According to Jeff, it is all over. Heck, even John Swinney has apparently said he'd vote for Obama - according to Yousuf anyway.

I've been here before with this discussion, and there's a chance I'm well wrong, but as I'm in it now, I might as well be
hanged for a sheep as a lamb. Or something equally Dickens-esq.

There are several reasons why I remain unconvinced that this thing is over.


1) Jeff mentions the Bradley Effect. While I'd hope that racial prejudice will not play a large part in this race, I've already posted a video that suggests that some, sadly, still see it as a factor which will influence their vote.

2) Obama's
double-digit national lead is, I think, slightly overstated. I'd imagine, not necessarily the Bradley Effect, but a similar phenomenon. People who will vote for the Republicans are less likely to be vocal about it - and less likely to tell pollsters that they'll vote for McCain. Call it embarrassment if you want - and I probably would - but I'd say that Obama voters are more likely to speak to pollsters... which might be overstating his mark by as much as 5 points.

3) Congress is heading for large Democrat majorities in both the Senate and the House. Some outlets are
even suggesting as many as 60 Democratic Senators after the election. If this were to occur alongside a Democratic Presidency, it would give President Obama huge, unchecked power. I'm not suggesting that he'd run amok - but I think the US Constitution was designed with a system of checks and balances, and a legislative branch of one party alongside an executive branch of another adds further checks to the process.

4) Sadly, stories like
this. When my Gran asked me who I thought would win, I said McCain. She said "I hope so too. I don't have anything against that nice young Obama, but if he gets elected, someone will try to shoot him." I wish we didn't live in a world where that happened. I wonder of there are any Americans of similar mindset - that it'd be dangerous for Obama to get elected. Please don't get me wrong. I'm not saying "people won't vote for Obama for his own good." I'm saying... I don't know. That maybe people will think that having Obama as President is risking his life and out of respect for his life they should vote for the other guy? Nah, I don't buy it either... But I wanted to point out the risks that Obama is taking for his vision - and that he should perhaps be shown even more respect because of that.

5) Finally, the Electoral College. Despite polls to the contrary (see above) I still think states like Florida, Virginia and even Pennsylvania might yet turn for McCain.


What do you think? Am I clutching at straws in the hope I can make £200 out of it? Or are the five reasons I've given not actually scraping the barrel?

You all know I'm working on guesswork and hunches being as far away from the action Stateside as I possibly could be. But I've nailed my colours to the mast... and if (when) the ship sinks, I'll be going down with it! If nothing else, I'll have given Jeff something to think about (and perhaps respond to) for five minutes.

Read more...

Friday, 24 October 2008

US race tightens - or does it?


I know I said I thought the race would get closer before Nov 4th, but is it level already? According to this Associated Press poll it is.

Now, before anyone goes off explaining to me that the poll should be discounted because of AP's strict definition of a "likely voter" - in the main, being someone who has voted before, which discounts a lot of young, likely Obama, voters - I know. This poll has Obama at 44% and McCain at 43% - with a margin of error of + or - 3.5%. Which is closer to the way I think the race actually stands.


This poll contrasts with a number that I have recently mentioned - many giving Obama a
double-digit lead.

Early voting has already opened in a number of states - which will surely be influenced by some on the polls.

This isn't so much analysis as commentary now, though I'll say what I've said before: this race is not over yet.

Polls are basically statistics. And as Aberdeen's eccentric former manager
Ebbe Skovdahl stated, "Statistics are just like mini-skirts - they give you good ideas but hide the most important things."

Hmm.... quite.

Read more...

Wednesday, 22 October 2008

Race still a factor in US election

Regular readers will know I've been supporting John McCain in the US Presidential election and that I'm not sold on Barack Obama. I want to point out - just in case there is anyone who thinks that I'm racist - that it is nothing to do with the colour of his skin. I see Obama as a Tony Blair-type, ready to deliver the country change etc - and I'm not convinced that Blair was the 'conviction politician' he was made out to be. More spin than substance any day of the week.

I say that because I came across this video on The Right Student and I worried in case people saw my attitude to Obama as something similar. Nothing could be further from the truth - I have a lot of respect for Obama. Indeed, his announcement that he is to stop campaigning for 2 days to visit his ill grandmother hit home what a decent guy he is. I'm just not convinced by his policy platform - and his public persona - is all.




I hope you are as worried about Americans as I am after watching this - there's some blatant misconceptions/ untruths about Obama in this clip. And there's downright racism too.


Something I wish I was wrong about - but how many of those featured in this clip will use policy to decide who they vote for on Nov 4th? And how many of them will just look at the colour of a one candidate's skin?


Still think the election is over?

Hat-tip: Arnie at The Right Student

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Tuesday, 21 October 2008

A nightmare scenario


Last month I wrote a blog post about how a tie would be the nightmare scenario for the US Presidential election - and that, despite the long odds, there was a fair chance it could happen. This was based on Obama adding to the states won by John Kerry in 2004 by winning Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada.

Now, though, I think there should be consideration of an even bigger nightmare scenario.

With some polls putting Barack Obama as many as 14 points ahead of John McCain nationally and bookies paying out on him winning, there is a scenario that might haunt the US electorate and it is this:

What if Obama wipes the floor with John McCain in the popular vote... but fails to win enough Electoral College votes to win the election? (A point that was well made by Susan in the comments on this piece). And to be clear, I'm not talking about a narrow loss on the popular vote (which would be bad enough - see Bush v Gore 2000 or previous popular vote losses in 1876 and 1888). I'm talking about a resounding loss - say by a couple of million votes - but victory by a small margin (say, 272-266).

In that scenario, what would be "President" McCain's mandate?

By the way, as much as I don't like his biased reporting, Justin Webb makes the point - and I might even go as far as agreeing with him - that McCain probably can't win the popular vote. Which means that if he is to win, he'd win an Electoral College majority without a popular vote majority.

Saying that, we might not have to worry - it seems a majority might end up voting for John McCain after all...

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Monday, 20 October 2008

John McCain at the Al Smith dinner





The Al Smith dinner allows the candidates a wee laugh a few weeks out from the election. Some good comedy material here.

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Thursday, 16 October 2008

Can I hear a slightly overweight woman singing?


Is this a sign of weakness?

Or a sign of someone exasperated, someone who is trying to convince people not to be taken in by Barack Obama?

I guess it depends on what side of the fence you sit.


After my last post where I declared this was far from over, I learn from Political Betting that Paddy Power has payed out on an Obama win while Ladbrokes now has him at 10/1 on.


I still think the bookies are missing something here - and that something is in my previous post. I think there's more to come from this race.


Maybe at some point soon I better come to the same Obama party that everyone else is at. I'm still sceptical though.

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Is it over?


After the final debate last night - in which most commentators were suggesting McCain needed a knock-out to stand anything like a chance in the coming weeks - some analysts are now suggesting it might be all over, that the keys of that big white house on Pennsylvania Avenue should be passed over to Mr B. Obama.

However, this article has brought the election back into sharp focus for me by saying something I've been saying to anyone who would listen to me over the last few months.

For those of you that can't be bothered following the link, the article questions whether the lead Obama has in the polls (quoted at 14% in this piece!) is actually a fair reflection of the potential vote. What it asks is basically 2 questions: Have those sampled answered honestly? And have those who may use race as a factor been respondents to samples?


Obviously, there is no way of knowing the answer to either question. And the article doesn't try to. It merely points out that if McCain wins, there may be a reason why the polls have been so wrong.


Telling quote from the piece:


In certain, rare circumstances voters do not tell pollsters the truth, more out of embarrassment than mendacity.

Now, I'm not for one second suggesting that voters who decide to vote for John McCain based on racial discrimination are right. Indeed, if that were the case, perhaps people may start to question whether McCain's presidency might be tarnished by the apparent racism that got him elected. All I'm saying is this: The polls might well be completely wrong - and this could be why.

And as I said before, this thing is nowhere close to being over with three weeks to go.

Things are about to get interesting.

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Tuesday, 14 October 2008

An Obama win - 1/7


I don't want to turn this into MitB/ Betting... but I've just seen Ladbrokes odds on US election:

To win:

McCain 9/2
Obama 1/7

Now I might be wrong (it has happened before) but I don't think this race is done yet. Certainly not to the tune of 7/1 on.

The states usually get much closer as election day approaches - and as such, might it be worth a punt on McCain as America starts to get cold feet?


One other notable "special":
McCain to win between 290 and 309 Electoral College votes: 40/1

Read more...

Monday, 6 October 2008

Hail Mary...

I have written previously that I though McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as running mate may have been the "Hail Mary" pass, the epitome of a last-minute, risk-reward strategy.



However, the New York Times thinks that it hasn't worked... and suggests the Republican ticket may need another trump play.



Their suggestion?




Ditch McCain. Put Palin at the top of the ticket. Make the race about the first woman v the first black man. Make it about cool v ice cold.




My initial thought is this: That is singularly the most crazy thing in politics since Gordon Brown invited Peter Mandelson back for a third stint in the Cabinet.




One thing is for sure though - the momentum, which had shifted away from the Democrats for much of 2008, is now swinging back Obama's way, just in time for the November election. The Republicans need to do something bold, or something needs to change; to break their way. Or Obama is getting the keys to the White House.




Anyone have any thoughts on what that could be?

Read more...

Friday, 3 October 2008

McCain pulls out of Michigan


I understand from
this fairly pro-Obama source that John McCain believes he can no longer win the state of Michigan and its 17 electoral votes. Which, if its true, is massive for Obama.

According to my numbers, he'd need to win Michigan if Obama won Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa. If he does not either win Michigan OR pick up another of the large swing states like Pennsylvania then I think we're looking at an Obama win.

I'm not yet ready to call that - for a number of reasons - but I think this race remains too close to call. I'd say there is perhaps a trend towards Obama lately, but there are still over 4 weeks to go.

One more thing - the VP debate. Nothing really matters less in a US Presidential. Arguably
neither candidate scored a win - certainly not a big win. Both were (fairly) competent. Joe ("can I call you Joe?") Biden proved he'd be a competent VP while Sarah Palin exceeded (pretty low) expectations with a solid performance. Honours even again.

Next up: McCain v Obama Part II

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Thursday, 25 September 2008

McCain suspends campaign


John McCain has temporarily suspended his Presidential campaign to return to Washington D.C to help broker a solution to the economic crisis that has engulfed the US - citing no consensus over the Bush administration's proposals as evidence that crisis talks were required.

McCain has also called on Barack Obama to delay Friday's Presidential debate - stating that they need to rise above party politics to see this crisis through.

It is a shrewd move from McCain - who has lagged behind Obama somewhat on economic issues. If Obama rejects his suggestions, it looks like he'd rather be talking politics than sorting out the economy. However, if he agrees, it looks like McCain is the leader, and he is following.

Apparently, Obama suggested that they issue a joint statement about it - and 5 mins later McCain announced the suspension of his campaign...


So... I think McCain wins the smartness/ shrewdness battle.


Though... if you are an Obama supporter, you're probably criticising McCain for politicising the issue and/or mad that Obama didn't do it first.


[Edit - ignoring the BBC's as usual unbiased reporting, it is still clear that McCain is getting whacked for "forgetting" to mention that Obama called him about this before he made his own statement... which is something of a key detail and now makes his call look like a gaffe. On the other hand, calling for the campaign to rise above party politics was a shrewd move - and if Obama ends up debating himself, it will look like he's the only one thinking about politics in these uncertain economic times, something that could go either way.

I think the spin involved has made what could have been a good, shrewd move turn against him... who knows - this might be the turning point Obama has needed.]

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