Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

Wednesday, 15 July 2009

EU Observation


On the same day that former Polish Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek was elected as President of the European Parliament, Britain's two BNP MEPs took their seats in Brussels Strasbourg.

Buzek, a Pole who lived in a region that shifted between Czechoslovak, Polish and German control during the Second World War and is the first EU Parliament President from the former Eastern bloc, is a symbol of that which unites Europe - a shared, if bloody, history and the ability to put the past behind and focus on the future.

The BNP are a symbol of what divides it, focusing on the differences between people, playing on historical hatred and uninformed rants.

Both, however, are part of the European project.

Toleration of that which we do not like. Side by side in an elected body.

Democracy. It's how we live.

Read more...

Thursday, 11 June 2009

Don't ban the BNP - debate them

Been a wee bit quiet on here despite there being lots to write about over the last few days. Unfortunately, I've been a wee bit busy with an important engagement and things have been a wee bit busy to blog...

I'm actually on holiday at the moment anyway, but I wanted to take a minute to discuss the result of the Euro election.

A friend of mine (a natural Tory voter I think...) pointed out to me that he thought it rather ridiculous that there was such a difference in votes between the 2004 & 2009 elections in Scotland and yet the end result (with the exception of the reduction in total seat numbers from 7 to 6) was the same. He wanted to know why the SNP could win nearly 100,000 votes (or 8% of the vote) more than Labour and still only get the same reward - 2 MEPs.

The answer, of course, is the D'Hondt electoral system. It's all about PR. At the end of the day, Labour hung onto their second seat by around 8,000 votes.

My Gran asked me about the BNP. She wanted to know how they'd won two seats when (she thought) less people voted for them in 2009 than in 2004. In fact, in 2004 they won 800,000 votes while this year they got 940,000. Nick Griffin won his seat in the North-West by only 5,000 votes while Andrew Brons got his by the same margin in Yorkshire and the Humber.

That's statistically how they did it. But how did they secure these votes? My Gran asked me if it was Labour's fault. And I thought about it for a minute. I ended up saying no, but qualified it somewhat. Extremist parties like the BNP feed on the anxiety, the fear and the anger that comes from recession conditions. They play on this fear for jobs, concern about "foreigners coming here, taking our jobs" etc etc. And they play down the dark side of their politics in order to appeal to a wider audience. So in that respect, Labour have to take some of the blame - though you can argue whether it is them or the global financial situation that is responsible for the recession.

But equally I think the other parties have to take some responsibility for the rise of the BNP too, for two reasons. Firstly, as many commentators have argued, the state of mainstream politics at the moment - particularly with the expenses scandal - and that has made voters less likely to cast their vote for the mainstream parties. That, for me, is a short-term theory.

In the long-term, parties have invited support for the BNP by ignoring the threat that they pose to democracy. Let me explain that. Rather than taking on the BNP's radical, discriminatory and racist views in public they run away, saying that they won't share a platform with them. Why the hell not? It it that downright lack of belief in the ability to defeat these racist views in a public forum that has meant the BNP have not had to defend these views.

For goodness sake, treat them like any other political party - which, in case you haven't noticed, with 2 MEPs and a handful of councillors across England, they have become. Take them on in the democratic game they want to play. Get Nick Griffin on Newsnight with Jeremy Paxman and let him rip him to shreds. Debate with them. Let them have their say and then shout it down - politely and democratically. Above all, let their views out in public so that voters can see them for what they are - and, ultimately, won't vote for them again.

Rant over.

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Sunday, 7 June 2009

Euro-election liveblog

Jeff & Will are liveblogging the European election coverage. Don't want them to get lonely so I may join them now and again.


2312: Right, I can't be bothered any more. I'm still hopeful the Greens might nick the last seat but it is looking increasingly likely that the Lib Dems will take it. UK-wide it is still early, but I don't think my predictions on Wed will be too far off. I'll wait and find out tomorrow morning. Until then, enjoy my graphic one more time...

2258: I've just flicked from BBC News 24 to BBC Scotland (which I didn't realise was on!) so now I'll be able to focus on Scottish seats... unless I decide to go to bed!

2250:
Those previous figures were solely for North & Leith. Edinburgh-wide, figures are:


SNP - 24,417
Con - 21,823
Lab - 20,330
LD - 19,799
Green - 15,589
UKIP - 4,104
Oth - 4,000

Massive for the SNP winning that (21%) with the Tories second (19%) and Labour rolling home in 3rd (18%) Lots of Labour MPs in Edinburgh looking pretty concerned I would think.


2240:
According to Tory Westminster candidate for Edinburgh North & Leith (where I stay for Westminster but not Scottish Parliamentary elections) Iain McGill, the vote was tighter than a duck's hind quarters:

SNP - 4965
Lab - 4324
LD - 4201
Con - 4199
Green - 4014
UKIP - 753

Five parties within 1,000 votes of each other?! Where does that happen. Can't wait to see the Lib Dems' "only we can beat Labour here" bar charts for Edin North & Leith now!


2235: Patrick Harvie seems to now believe that the Greens will fall short in Scotland. Judging by Brian Taylor's comments before, he may be right.

2225:
Brian Taylor has the SNP on 29% across Scotland with Labour on 21%. He is predicting 2 SNP seats, 2 Labour, 1 Tory and 1 Lib Dem. We'll find out soon enough I guess.

2200:
Answer to that could be YES if BBC reports from Wales are to be believed. The Tories topping the poll there?! Gordon Brown is such a bad PM that he's lost Wales to the Tories? Surely not...

2158:
Will has the SNP topping the poll in Renfrewshire (seat of Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy) and in South Lanarkshire. Two areas not exactly known for SNP voting. Could this bad night for Labour be an absolute shocker?

2145:
First result in from North-East England region. Labour top the poll. Seats breakdown:

LAB - 1
CON - 1
LD - 1

No change. Though the share of the vote is interesting. -9% for Labour in an area where they have 28 of the 30 Westminster seats. Not much to look at trend-wise I don't think.

2135:
Jeff has the result from Glenrothes count for Fife:

Lab - 21,248
SNP - 21,043
Lib - 10,613
Con - 10,110

Marginal win for Labour. Decent news for them there... but not amazing. Would the SNP have expected to win the vote there?
No word on the Green vote there yet.

2025:
According to the Lib Dems on Twitter, they've topped the poll in Burnley by over 1,000 votes from Labour. Big BNP vote in council elections there last time out - they would have expected a big Euro vote too. Is it too hopeful to think that might not happen for them?

2018:
Green MSP Patrick Harvie spreading rumours on Twitter.

18% vote for the Greens in Glasgow? That'd be huge for them.

2106:
Brian Taylor on BBC - advising Iain Gray he may want to consider his position on the back of Labour's showing in the European elections. He is suggesting that the SNP win the poll fairly handily and that Labour may have done badly. Very badly.

2101:
Yousuf says Labour will only get one MEP in Scotland. Would that constitute a disaster? Assuming he is basing his findings on Glasgow - if they can't win there, where can they win?
Feel free to use my graphic...

2100:
I have what constitutes a result for you from the Moray Scottish Parliamentary constituency.

SNP - 6960
CON - 4078
LAB - 1760
LD - 1744
UKIP - 1532
Green - 1532

SNP vote up 8% from 2004 EU election, only party vote up. Good share for UKIP and Green, as well as the Tories. I know this is the SNP heartlands... but anything we can draw from it? Perhaps the Green vote increase might reflect a national trend.

2050:
A note for any Labour voters from Aled off The Chris Moyles Show:


Good to know that there is someone to help you if there is anything upsetting you tonight...

2038: Yousuf lets us know (via Twitter) that "Glasgow is bad. Really bad." Now, he might just be confirming what us Edinburghers already know, or he might be talking about the Euro vote. But bad in what way? Turnout? Or Labour numbers. I suspect the latter...

2016: Some early tidbits for you.

I hear that in Moray, where the SNP could stand a sheep with a yellow & black rosette as a candidate, their vote is up 9% from their 2004 Euro vote.

Remember though, the SNP's vote share in 2004 dropped so badly that John Swinney stood down soon afterwards.

Read more...

Thursday, 4 June 2009

I've voted... have you?


Just this minute (well, depending when you are reading this, anything from a minute to 10 hours or longer...) back from the polling station in Stockbridge where voting has been described as "steady."

And after all the humming and ha-ing I actually did cast a vote for a party on a ballot paper than was as long as my arm. No word of who I voted for though...


If I can get over my apathy to go vote then so can you. So... um, go forth and vote in your, erm, hundreds. Or something like that.


PS - I don't know why, but the text has somehow gone green...

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A manifesto for Europe


Given my apathy regarding the EU election, a friend of emailed me with some advice regarding who to vote for. Well, he passed on some guiding principles. Not his own you understand, those of the Scottish Social Enterprise Coalition.

The SSEC, for those who don't know, is a lobby group whose primary focus is social enterprise - that is, business that is driven by a social or community focus and not by shareholders trying to maximise profits.

Anyway, it seems that its not only political parties who produce a manifesto in time for an election. The SSEC has put one together here - with several main principles, including:

  • Fairer funding for social enterprises

  • Partnership working across Europe

  • A year of social enterprise

The organisation are basically asking people to use their vote (and parties to use their MEPs) to advance these principles - ideals which appear to be fairly relevant given the collapse of economies around the world.

Anyway, for anyone wavering about who to vote for (or indeed, looking for a reason to vote) it might be worth having a wee look at their manifesto and finding a party who shares those principles.

Of course, you might be as well skipping the polling station altogether and heading to the pub instead. It is entirely up to you!

Read more...

Wednesday, 3 June 2009

EU Election: Dos and D'Hondts


Like some others in the blogosphere, I am distinctly apathetic when it comes to voting in the upcoming European election (with apologies to Yousuf, who seems quite enthusiastic about it). For one thing, the European Parliamentary election is, in a British context anyway, a "second order election" - and in Scotland and Wales, perhaps even third order. For another, with ongoing expenses scandals and MPs resigning rather than facing the electorate, the public are - rightly, in my view - pretty annoyed with their representatives and not particularly in the mood to vote some of them to gravy train that is the European Parliament.

Saying all that though, I probably will go vote on Thursday. Polling station is just across the road and all that. Plus, as a political commentator of sorts, I feel duty-bound to go vote for someone - anyone - if only so I can continue to harp from the sidelines.

So, just to get me in the mood, I've been looking at some numbers. Jeff has been doing the numbers for Scotland for weeks while James and Calum have been looking at more recent numbers which have the Greens looking good for seat number 6 here (though their working is slightly different). Basically - I think - we're looking at a fight for the sixth seat. I expect the SNP and Labour both to win two and the Tories to win one. Will the Greens be able to fight off the Lib Dems for a seat (not necessarily the last one as James' working shows) or will the SNP/ Labour manage to grab a third (as Calum suggests)? With Scotland losing an MEP due to EU expansion, its all to play for on this score.

UK-wide, it's an interesting tale. Including the (currently 7) Scottish MEPs, the situation currently is:

Conservative - 27 seats
Labour - 19 seats
UKIP - 12 seats
Lib Dem - 12 seats
(UK) Green - 2 seats
SNP - 2 seats
Plaid Cymru - 1 seat


Ignoring (but not forgetting!) Northern Ireland's 3 seats, Britain's representation falls from 75 to 69 - meaning a seat less in six of the EU constituencies (including Scotland). Which is important to remember.

Also important: The share of the vote at the last election (2004) saw the Tories win with 27.6% of the vote. Labour won 22.6%, UKIP came third with 16.1% ahead of the Lib Dems on 14.9%. The Greens won two seats with 5.8% of the vote while the BNP returned no MEPs with their 4.9%.

YouGov's latest poll (published 1st June) has the Tories out in the lead on 27% and Lab (17%) UKIP (16%) and the Lib Dems (15%) battling for second. The poll also puts the Greens at 9% and the BNP on 7% (which may actually be higher - I mean, how likely would you be to tell pollsters if you were going to vote for the BNP.

Given those figures - and to make this a little more interesting - I'm taking a stab at projecting seat numbers on a Britain-wide basis. Here's how I think it will go:

Conservative - 23 seats
Labour - 14 seats

UKIP - 13 seats

Lib Dem - 9 seats

(UK) Green - 5 seats
SNP - 2 seats
BNP - 1 seats (sadly...)

Plaid Cymru - 1 seat

(Scottish) Green - 1 seat


So, good news and bad. The "big three" will struggle, with only the Tories holding onto their poll figures while Labour might well drop down to third or fourth on vote share, but still win more seats than UKIP and the Lib Dems on the basis of their (probable) two Scottish seats. Good election for the Greens Britain-wide - multiplying their representation threefold but I think the BNP might well grab a seat somewhere. They were only 90,000 votes off getting one the last time out and, depending on the turnout, they may be well-placed to pick up the votes of the apathetic and the seriously pissed off. Let's hope not though.

So that's that. Incidentally, you still have about 20 hours to change my mind on who to vote for - not that I've made up my mind yet...

PS - with the raft of Cabinet-level, former Cabinet-level and other MP resignations, Gordon Brown might call it a day on Monday - depending how badly Labour tank in the English Council elections. I don't want to say you heard it here first... but if you did and it happens then that "might" wasn't in the previous sentence!

UPDATE - Political Betting has news of a final YouGov Poll before tomorrow's election. Scores on the doors:

Conservative - 26%
UKIP - 18%
Labour - 16%
Lib Dem - 15%

(UK) Green - 10%
BNP - 5%


Which may or may not make my numbers look good. Guess it all comes down to the turnout - which might be higher than usual for an EU election.

Read more...

Thursday, 14 May 2009

Tell me who to vote for. Really.


So, as with everyone else I guess, I got my European Election Polling Card through the post this week.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....

I guess I'm about as enthusiastic about going to vote in this election as Gordon Brown is about getting up in the morning. Which is to say, I'm in the 80% of the population who royally can't be bothered with it.

Don't get me wrong, I'll go and vote. People died so I could live in a democracy and vote and that is something I don't forget. Also, I'd be a big hypocrite if I didn't go vote after years of telling people to use theirs. And if there's one thing I hate, it's double standards. Oh yeah, and the polling station is literally 100 steps from my flat.

But here's the thing. If you're asking me to choose between Eurosceptic and Europhile, I distinctly end up choosing the former. I'm all for international co-operation and institutions etc, but the EU is a huge bureaucracy which, frankly, hasn't done much and one which I think we could quite happily live without. Okay, it has stopped Europe falling into yet another war (with each other I mean) but really, are you telling me we couldn't have found a means of doing so which didn't dictate the curvature of bananas?

So here's my thing. Given how skint I am, I was thinking I would sell my vote. Person with the highest bid gets to tell me who to vote for. But then, I'm pretty sure that might be bordering on illegal (however much I need the money). So here's what I'll do:

If you feel strongly about the European election - and want me to vote for a particular party - write me a single sentence in the comments with the name of the party and why I should vote for them. And if I find a comment that I either agree with or find entertaining then I will vote for that party.

I realise that this is taking the mickey out of democracy somewhat... but in an EU election, does it really matter who we vote for? I mean, they all disappear off to Brussels (oh yeah, and Strasbourg) and are never heard from again. Until they've spent all their expenses of course.

So let me know who you want me to vote for.

Read more...

Monday, 11 May 2009

The price of MP's expenses


I'm back. Did you miss me?!

It seems like while I was away, the world has fallen in on Westminster's head. What the hell are they up to down there? It seems like they are ALL at it, it's a plague on all their houses. So really none of the parties stand to benefit from it if a General Election were called today.

Well, actually, that might not be strictly true.

The main fear for June's European Election is if the Labour vote tanks (and some polls have them falling as low as 17% though I'd be surprised if they didn't manage 20%) then the main beneficiary will not be a mainstream party.

Think about it. You want to send a message to the government, but in a way that doesn't (quite) bring it down
but you don't want to vote for your own Labour party.

If you don't live in Scotland, there's no SNP to vote for (and even if there was, you are an ardent Labour voter, you have a visceral hatred for the Nats) so you can't vote for them. There's no natural crossover to the Tories, for they are (predominantly) Eurosceptic and you quite like the EU. Ditto for UKIP. While the Lib Dems are as inoffensive a bunch as you could find, you don't really want to see them overtake Labour. So, instead of voting, you stay at home and hope the day doesn't go too badly.


Which means that votes for parties in the centre are reduced while parties on the left and right (Greens and the BNP) are likely to increase their share of the vote - even if they don't increase their actual vote. And in a recession, where there are few jobs going, I suspect the BNP might sweep the anti-immigration vote in places like Leeds, Bradford and Burnley, where they already have a presence on local councils.

End point - from Gordon Brown's catastrophic handling of the economy and the public perception that MPs are all on the take, the BNP manage to sneak two or three seventh place finishes in English regions, and BNP MEPs are elected.

So use your vote or you could end up with the BNP. You have been warned.

Read more...

Monday, 4 May 2009

Europe

Apologies for a forthcoming lapse in posting. I'm off to Europe for a few days.

I'm away with the department to Vienna and Brussels, to meet with some representatives of some rather large institutions - the UN, NATO and the European Commission. I'll hopefully get some decent chat while I'm there. And some Belgian beer.

Anyway, I haven't been organised enough to schedule many posts, so you'll just have to wait until I get back for more of my meanderings.

Back soon.

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Thursday, 26 March 2009

The Catholic EU?

I know I shouldn't mix religion and politics... but here's a story that does.

It seems that the EU has annoyed Christians in the Netherlands (of a Protestant denomination)... on the basis that the EU flag (with 12 stars in a circle) is too similar to the 12-star halo that surrounds the head of the Virgin Mary in Roman Catholic art.

Here are both:










So, they might have a point.

But you have to ask, is it something worth getting offended over?

Read more...

Friday, 5 December 2008

A casualty of European integration?


On the whole, I'm broadly pro-European Union expansion eastwards. Aspiration to membership of the largest free trading bloc in the world aides former communist states in establishing free market economies and helps fledgling democracies to function.

But they've gone and spoiled it now.

When the Russia won the Eurovision song contest in May 2008 on the back of "political" voting from its neighbours, Eurovision "King", Sir Terry Wogan, threatened to quit his role commentating in the UK - a role he has held for 35 years.

Sadly, Wogan, the greatest cynic of his generation, has held true to his promise, and will not entertain us with his dry wit at the next event in 2009. Instead, Graham Norton will take over, which begs the following question:

Who is going to watch it now?

Read more...

Monday, 27 October 2008

Flying the flag

I know its a flag issue (which is bound to get some people to react...) but I really thought this was an interesting article.

Apparently you can be fined £60 for having a Saltire, St George cross, Welsh dragon... or even a Union Flag on your number plate.


So why can you purchase these registration plates?


And, perhaps more pertinently, and in true Daily Express style, what can we blame the EU for next?

Read more...

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