It's nearly here...

It's that time of year again. The RBS Six Nations Championship. 5 weeks, fifteen (hopefully) great matches and the opportunity for me to make a complete @rse of myself by predicting a Scottish Grand Slam only for a wooden spoon to beckon for the boys in dark blue.

I exaggerate slightly (or do I - last year's predictions were pretty awful) but for some reason when Six Nations time rolls round I abandon my conservative-leaning, pessimistic-Scot "we're all doomed" predictions of disaster and embarrassment in favour of a much more optimistic, we're-full-of-potential-we-could-do-anything kind of attitude. And then, inevitably, I end up embarrassing myself for having confidence in our boys to actually fulfill that potential and looking like an idiot when Italy run in three tries in seven minutes and go on to thump us at Murrayfield (don't look at me like that - that actually happened!).

So where do I end up this year? Well... to be honest, I'm not one for learning from my mistakes all that quickly. I still believe that the Scottish boys have the potential makings of a good side. Up front we have a much stronger and fitter pack than we've had in recent years (though the loss of Euan Murray at prop for the first game will be a big miss) and even, dare I say it, the backline looks... if not amazing, then certainly pretty decent. I'd like to see Thom Evans get a run in the side, I'm glad Hugo Southwell is in at fullback... and I'm equally delighted that the only way Dan Parks will be anywhere near Murrayfield on Sunday is if he buys a ticket to the game.

But the level that we're playing at only takes us so far - we have to factor in the opposition. England have a strange, strange line up this week (dropping Cipriani, recalling Andy Goode to 10 and starting Harry Ellis - who was suspended for six weeks) and are fairly inconsistent and unsettled. France look like a good bet for the trophy, though they'll have to be good to beat Ireland in Dublin on Saturday. Ireland, well, like Scotland, plenty potential - but for me that potential has never been fully realised, and they are ageing in key positions (O'Driscoll, O'Gara and O'Connell) while Italy have a flanker playing at scrum half for goodness sake. Wales are everyone's favourites to retain the trophy and they have a settled side who know what the plan is and just have to execute. I think they might have a down year... but that's just a guess more than anything. I think for sure though, no Grand Slam this year, but the French might sneak it on points difference... maybe from England?

The banter has been great on this Facebook group - so if you have Facebook and like rugby, I'd suggest you join.

Finally, predictions for the first weekend:
England 29 Italy 15
Ireland 17 France 23
Scotland 22 Wales 24

I hope I'm wrong, and that a win for Scotland warms up what will undoubtedly be a fairly chilly Murrayfield on Sunday.

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Second time round, the budget passes

And so, with much less fanfare than its defeat last week heralded, the Scottish budget has finally passed the hurdle that the Scottish Parliament debating chamber. And by a wide margin - though not the unanimity that Jeff expected.

The vote passed by 123-2, with everyone bar the Greens on board. And each of those who played along with the Government's new budget got a little of what they wanted in it.

The Lib Dems got a "strategy to boost the economy" and a submission to the Calman Commission, HUGE concessions on John Swinney's part. I jest, of course. It was probably all he could do not to bite Tavish's arm off when he offered that.

Labour got 8,000 new apprenticeships (half of what they had wanted) while Margo (who voted with it last week as well) retained the money she had demanded for Edinburgh.

The Tories got all that they'd agreed before last week's failure to pass it. They also look like a fairly responsible opposition - offering to make agreements before the thing falls apart. When the next election comes to pass (which will now be 2011) I suspect voters might remember this - and the reluctance of both Labour and the Lib Dems to offer support until they deemed it necessary (or prudent?) to do so.

Which leaves Patrick Harvie and his fellow Green, Robin Harper. The voted against the budget again, though this time their vote against it didn't bring the thing down. Ultimately though, despite only being 5 foot 5, Harvie appears to be the biggest loser of this whole episode. Instead of negotiating further when things didn't go their way last week (granted, in the first instance, I think the SNP could have opened the door to Harvie MUCH earlier) they dug their heels in and told the Government where to go.

On some levels, their stance is laudable. The budget is not to their taste, the Government gave them nothing that they wanted, why vote for it? And its a fair point. But I guess the thing is this: they could have had so much out of it. Despite there being only two, the parliamentary arithmatic means that those Green votes can mean the difference between sucess and failure (as we saw last week). To the SNP, they can mean the difference between giving away a little on law and order and business (to the Tories), on capital city funding (to Margo) and on environmental issues (to the Greens) and having to negotiate with Labour and the Lib Dems. And in this instance, I think the Greens may have overplayed their hand slightly... and they've gotten nothing from it.

Don't get me wrong. I think the whole process has ended up as a plague on all the parties' houses (with the exception perhaps of the Tories). I just wonder who will pay for it at the next election. And on that level - and despite this recent poll - I fear for the Greens.

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My top five...

After watching Federer v Nadal Part XIX last weekend, I got thinking about what the best sporting events I had watched live were. I struggled to cut the list to five, but here they are. Are they in order? I don't think so... because how can you compare one sport to another?

1) 2008 Wimbledon: Men's Singles Final: Nadal beats Federer 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 6-7, 9-7. Seven hours (including rain breaks) of a to-and-fro battle between the two best players in the world. Tension-filled, finishing in near-darkness, Nadal finally triumphed to end Federer's five-year reign as Wimbledon champion and win his first Grand Slam outside the French Open.

2) 2008 Olympics: 100m Final: Usian Bolt runs 9.69secs and breaks World Record. And he practically walks over the line. Was absolutely staggering a) how fast he was and b) how much faster than everyone else he was. Still can't believe how much he slowed in the last 10m.

3) 2005 Champions League Final: Liverpool beat AC Milan on penalties after 3-3 draw, despite being down 3-0 at half time and looking pretty pathetic at that. In truth, I nearly turned it off... sticking with it only for the first 15 mins of the second half to see how they got on. Glad I stayed with it though - what a comeback. Amazing to watch.

4) 2003 Rugby World Cup Final: England beat Australia 20-17 after extra time on a last-second Jonny Wilkinson drop goal. I know... the less said about it the better. But it was a tension-filled drama to the very end, with two incredibly evenly matched sides... even if it was the wrong result!

5) SuperBowl XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers beat Arizona Cardinals 27-23 with a touchdown with only 35 seconds remaining. I know it was only a couple of days ago, and I should think about it for a while... but it was an instant classic, if only for the Cardinals fourth quarter comeback from 20-7 down to lead with 2.37 remaining.

Honourable mentions:

• 2009 Australian Open Men's Singles Final: Nadal beats Federer 7-5, 3-6, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2 in another epic. The standard of tennis was phenomenal at times.
• SuperBowl XXXVIII: New England Patriots beat Carolina Panthers 32-29 on a 41-yard Adam Viniateri field goal with four seconds remaining. 37 points in an end to end final quarter that could have gone either way.
• 2008 Olympics: Usian Bolt breaks Michael Johnson's 200m record.
• 1999 Champions League Final: Man Utd 2-1 Bayern Munich, won with 2 goals in the last minute of the match. Amazing stuff.
• 2001 UEFA Cup Final: Liverpool 5-4 Deportivo Alaves. After Extra Time. Liverpool led four times Alaves equalised in the last minute of normal time before an own goal in the first half of extra time was enough to win it.
  

Yeah, you might have guessed, I do love my sport. Probably a controversial list. If I was letting personal support get in the way, I might also have had the 2003 UEFA Cup final (Celtic losing to Porto 3-2) or Scotland's 21-6 Autumn Test win over South Africa in 2002 (a match which I was lucky to be in attendance at!). But there we go. Anyone watched anything better?

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Westminster still matters for the SNP

I read with interest Jeff's take on the YouGov post-budget-vote-Scottish poll printed at the weekend. And I'd throw a note of caution his way.

For yes, he is right (and he'll enjoy my saying so!) in that "Holyrood is the main show in town for the SNP." Poll numbers from there are not only based upon the popularity of the SNP in government in Scotland, they follow the workings of the Scottish Parliament and give a clear indication of voters' intentions in Scottish Parliament elections (albeit two years prior to the next - scheduled - one of those). And since 1999 the party has focused its energies on the Holyrood Parliament, with the "gradualist" approach of winning seats, taking office, proving competence, holding and winning a referendum seemingly well in its way to fruition.

But (you could sense it coming) what of those who are banished from Holyrood, sent to serve time in a foreign land, that Parliament hosted by the arch-nemesis? For if there is only one game in town, if Westminster is but a mere distraction, why bother with the place? Why not invite abstentionism? Or, if you must stand, why not refuse to take up your seats - as Sinn Fein's members do?

There is a reason. You see, the SNP's strategy, while bold, seemingly foolproof and inherently democratic (in that it lets the people decide their constitutional future - a noble and somewhat under-used gesture) has one, somewhat major flaw: No one knows whether it can be done.

This referendum would require a majority of votes in Parliament to be held, it is true. But even if the SNP could muster a simple majority (65 - possibly with the aid of Lib Dems and Greens - of 129) that probably would not be enough. Not enough? And why on earth not I hear you ask?

Well... here's the rub. There's no guarantee that such a vote in the Scottish Parliament would be upheld as "within the remit of the Scottish Parliament." Any changes to the Scotland Act, "constitutional arrangements" or "sanctioning" of a referendum which seeks to change these arrangements would probably have to pass through Westminster.

So yes, 65 might be a majority in the Scottish Parliament... but the 7 SNP MPs fall far short of a majority of Scottish MPs at Westminster. And I'd argue Jeff's point. Yes the main game for the SNP is Holyrood. And yes, if they are to achieve their raison d'etre of independence then it will be through a referendum. But it is - at the very least - debateable whether that referendum will be delivered through the Scottish Parliament or by Westminster if/when the SNP gain a majority of Scotland's MPs.

I'm not one of those who subscribes to the belief that a hung parliament will aid this goal. But what I am pointing out - albeit in a rather long and winded way - is that Westminster, while now a second priority for the SNP, remains an important part of their plans for the constitutional future of Scotland.

But a good poll for the party!

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