Tuesday, 25 May 2010
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
- In 1979, Labour lost a general election to the Tories, the first of four consecutive election defeats. They did so on the back of the "Winter of Discontent" - union strikes on the back of Labour economic policy.
- In 2010, Labour lost a general election (and who knows if it will be the first of four or more defeats) to a Tory (and Lib Dem) government on the back of an economic mess - partly (if I'm being fair) brought about by Labour economic policy.
- In 1979, Labour MPs believed that the party needed time in opposition in order to re-establish the party and examine what it stood for.
- In 2010, Labour MPs and former MPs - including David Blunkett, John Reid, Andy Burnham, Dianne Abbott and Tom Harris and many more besides - argued against a "progressive coalition"/ "coalition of the losers" in favour of the Labour party leaving the Tories to govern and taking time to work out where Labour could go next.
- In 1983, the general election immediately following 1979, Labour lurched to the left under Micheal Foot, producing a manifesto dubbed "The Longest Suicide Note in History" which saw the party take a drubbing at the polls, polling just 27% of the vote - only 2% ahead of the Alliance.
- In 2015, Labour will have the opportunity to repeat that mistake. And it would be a mistake... but what choice do they have?
Saturday, 15 May 2010
Thursday, 13 May 2010
UPDATE - I just read Alex Massie of the Spectator on the very issue, and it seems he's equally speculative regarding the future - but paints an equally bleak picture for Labour.
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
- Secured fixed term parliaments - for 5 and not 4 year terms.
- Dropped plans for mansion tax.
- Got Tories to drop changes to inheritance tax.
- Changes to threshold for income tax in line with LD policy.
- Not to push to adopt Euro.
- To accept a referendum on transfer of power to EU.
- A cap on non-EU immigration.
- Tory recognition of marriage in tax system.
- To DROP OPPOSITION to Trident.
- To accept a referendum on Alternative Vote - a non-proportional electoral system to replace FPTP, a non-proportional electoral system.
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Monday, 10 May 2010
"... while this was an election for a United Kingdom government, there is nothing united about the way in which its component countries voted."
Thursday, 6 May 2010
22:30 A few other things I'm looking out for (couple of bets on!):
Tories win 250-274 seats (14/1)
Tories win 275-299 seats (7/2)
LD win 90-99 seats (4/1)
UKIP win a seat (7/2)
1 Cabinet Minister loses seat (4/1)
2 Cabinet Ministers lose seat (5/1)
Labour hold Ochil & South Perthshire (3/1).
I wait with baited breath!
22:25 A couple of days ago I predicted this for Scotland:
Labour - 34 seats
Aberdeen South - LD gain from LAB
22:15 BBC exit poll: CON 307 LAB 255 LD 59 - Result as Hung Parliament. Have to say, I think that doesn't really tally with what I think, and my years(!) of experience.
MITB prediction: Con 280ish, Lab 250ish, LD 90ish.
20:45 I'm not really starting blogging until polls close at 10pm, but I saw this on Twitter - a list of when each constituency is likely to announce its result. Useful for later. You can see the list here.