601st Post: Liveblogging later

I have decided to liveblog the election, probably until around 4-5am, depending when we get some good results.  Maybe even 6am if I end up being hardcore.  I will be tweeting too - but 140 characters is just not enough for any kind of analysis, so I'll be adding that here too.

Important to note - I won't be "breaking news".  I'm just not that sort of guy - I don't have the amount of sources required for that.  But when results break I'll break them down - hopefully in a more balanced way than the talking heads on TV later.  

I should be more balanced too - I'm a member of party X, campaigned for party Y and will probably vote party Z.  And none of the three of them is likely to provide the PM on Friday (or next week, or whenever we find out who it is!).

So, I'll be back around 10pm.  Join in the debate.

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BBC Interview

Malc in the Burgh - featured on the BBC!  

Short interview for BBC on election, parties, issues and the media.  Let me know what you think.

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Predicting the unpredictable...

I mentioned this morning that I was working on a prediction for the 59 seats in Scotland come Friday morning.  So here we are - polling data, majorities, vague knowledge of candidates and local issues, and the occasional bit of blind guesswork has led me to this:

Labour - 34 seats

Lib Dems - 14 seats

SNP - 8 seats

Conservatives - 3 seats

Which, on the face of it, would keep each of the parties fairly happy.  Yes Labour will have lost 5 seats, but it wouldn't be the disaster they'd expected.  The Lib Dems, a few short weeks ago, were probably looking at a few losses, and less than 10 seats, so 14 would be a big win.  The SNP, though nowhere near their (ridiculously ambitious) 20 seat target, would be happy with adding a couple of seats to their 2005 total in an election they've been squeezed out of by parties and media alike.  And the Conservatives would be delighted with two Scottish colleagues for David Mundell, with the fears that they have over another wipeout in Scotland.

So, here's the few seats I see changing hands:

Aberdeen South - LD gain from LAB

Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk - CON gain from LD

Dumfries & Galloway - CON gain from LAB

Dundee West - SNP gain from LAB

Dunfermline & West Fife - LD gain from LAB (from 2005)

Edinburgh North & Leith - LD gain from LAB

Edinburgh South - LD gain from LAB

Glasgow East - LAB gain from SNP (from by-election)

Livingston - SNP gain from LAB

The remainder will, I think, stay the same as 2005.  This includes seats like Ochil & South Perthshire, with a small majority; the four-way marginal Argyll & Bute; Labour holding off Tory & SNP charges in Stirling and East Renfrewshire and what I think will be a stonking fight in East Lothian.  The "vogue" pick amongst my friends and colleagues is a Lib Dem win in Glasgow North, but I'm not sold on it.  

Of course, as I said before, this is entirely guesswork, and based on nothing more than an amateur psephologist's instincts.  Feel free to systematically de-construct this on the basis that you think I have no idea what I'm talking about because I'm not out talking to "the people".  And let me know what you think.  

But you know I'm right... right?

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May the fourth be with them...

So, we're nearly there.  2 days to go.  My current election bumpf count stands at:

Lib Dem 14

SNP 5

Lab 2

Con 1

Green 1

TUSA 1

Lib 1

No prizes for guessing who is really going after my vote, in what should be a keenly contested Lab-LD marginal.

I guess I have to be careful what I say now, with only two days to go - apparently because I'm writing on a blog I have some kind of influence.  

However, given that the only election literature that I have had my hands on has been in my flat, I haven't had any other dealings with anyone connected to any political party (other than pestering candidates electronically - I mean by email and twitter of course, but how about next time we fit them with electronic tags?!) and I haven't talked about, much less seen, anything to do with postal votes, I might be okay to indulge in a little educated (I'm a politics student and amateur psephologist) guesswork surrounding the constituencies. 

So, disclaimer out of the way (ie - that this is guesswork based solely on my own logic and reading of the election, predominantly through the use of opinion polling) I'll try to put together a guess at the 59 seats in Scotland later today.  I'll also pick a few that I intend to stick a fiver on - thereby putting my money where my mouth is.

As a general outcome - I suspect we may well be in the territory whereby the Conservatives may get the largest amount of votes... and possibly even seats, but due to the convention that the outgoing PM gets to try and form a government, we may well see a Lab-LD pact/ coalition... but perhaps with Nick Clegg as PM?  Is that a really outside bet - I mean, have I been drinking too much Clegg-ade?  Perhaps...  but one thing I am pretty sure about:  this won't be decided by Friday morning.

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