Friday, 14 November 2008

Squaring an egg-shaped circle

What is the difference between this:


and this?
I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm very much against the idea of a British football team competing at the London Olympics in 2012. But I am very aware of the claim of hypocrisy which may well be levelled at me when I support the British and Irish Lions as they take the field against World Champions South Africa at rugby union next summer.

So, why do I feel that I am able to support a team which is put together once every four years to compete against some of the best in the world at one sport but not another?

To be honest, I'm not sure. And I don't know how smart it is of me to try to offer an explanation without resorting to some distasteful comments about sport and class. But I'll try.

First up is, I guess, the historical aspect of it. The Lions have toured either Australia, New Zealand or South Africa on a four-yearly basis since the 1950s, with their first test match played as far back as 1888. The Lions tradition is something I've grown up with. I can remember watching Jeremy Guscott (an Englishman my father loathed when playing in a white shirt) slot over a drop goal which won the series against South Africa in 1997. And, I guess, there's a point to be made there about drawing people together from each of the "home" nations (for the purposes of rugby union "Ireland" competes as one entity) and overcoming rivalries - despite knocking seven colours of s*** out of each other during the Five (now Six) Nations each year, the teams united to take on southern hemisphere opposition. Equally, the Lions tour has been a part of the rugby calander for such a long time. It is an established event and presents no risk to the independent rugby unions.

The same thing I do not think can be said of football. There is no historical precedent. Yes, GB has competed at Olympic Games but not since the 1960s. By the time 2012 comes round, that will be nearly 50 years. Also, and this is where I'll try not to play a class card, there is something more of an understanding among rugby fans than football fans. Go to any rugby game (as I will on Saturday, to watch Scotland v South Africa) and you can sit with opposing fans, enjoy the banter and generally get on fine - and no more so than in the pub pre- and post-game. Go to a football match, and you'll be segregated from fans of the opposing time for fear that rioting will break out. It is hard not to suggest that this is related to class, though I guess there's an aspect of the mindset that Scottish Unionist so easily finds on newspaper comments.

So what is my point? Well, I'm certainly not trying to say that rugby fans are better than football fans. What I guess I'm trying to legitimise is my view that it is fine to support a British and Irish side at rugby - but that a football side should not take the field. Of course there are many sides to this argument, but this is mine.

In the meantime, I'll hope Scotland can prove once again that they can do themselves proud in the coming week, competing against South Africa at rugby on Saturday and Argentina at football next Wednesday.

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Thursday, 13 November 2008

Aberdeen North

2005 Result:
Frank Doran LAB – 15,557 (42.5%)
Steve Delaney LD – 8,762 (23.9%)
Kevin Stewart SNP – 8,168 (22.3%)
David Anderson CON – 3,456 (9.4%)

Labour HOLD
Majority: 6,795 over LD


Candidates:
Frank Doran MP
(LAB)
Cllr Kevin Stewart (SNP)*

*Kevin Stewart was originally the SNP candidate, but my sources indicate he is no longer to stand.


Swing required: LD – 9.6% SNP – 10.6% CON – 16.5%

Council area: -
City of Aberdeen (LD-SNP coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Aberdeen Central: LAB (majority 382 over SNP)
Aberdeen North: SNP (majority 3,709 over Lab)
Aberdeen South: LD (majority 2,731 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Aberdeen Central & Aberdeen South)

Electorate: 69,622
From Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Aberdeen Central: 39,639 (56.9%)
Aberdeen North: 29,255 (42.0%)
Aberdeen South: 728 (1.1%)

Prediction:
Should be a straight fight between Labour and the SNP despite LD finishing second in 2005. If national swing from Labour to SNP is between 6% and 8%, expect Aberdeen North to change hands. However, given the recent by-election in Glenrothes (only 5% swing to SNP), as well as local factors (such as the unpopularity of city council) may see Labour hold, albeit with a reduced majority. If the SNP are to get anywhere near Alex Salmond’s target of 20 seats, they must win seats like Aberdeen North. They have the party machine in place, and the past electoral figures would seem to favour them. However, a Westminster election is a different beast from its Scottish Parliament equivalent. Equally, I think that the SNP and Lib Dems will be vying for the same disaffected Labour vote, and may cancel each other out as challengers. I originally had this down as an SNP gain pre-Glenrothes, but now? There is still plenty time, but for the moment I see it as a

LAB HOLD

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The 2009/10 General Election

Current political map of Scotland (from Scottish Politics)

I've been saying for some time that I would start a round-up of the Scottish constituencies in time for the next Westminster election. Well, that time has arrived, and an alphabetical list will begin with Aberdeen North this afternoon. I'm still working on some (most) of the information. If nothing else, I'll get 59 blog posts out of it...


Anyway, to start off, here's a rough guide to my predictions (which would be more fun if Jeff were here to critique them). I should point out that pre-Glenrothes by-election, there were slightly less Labour seats, but after careful analysis (read: guesswork) I've reverted them back to red. So, the next Parliament's representation from Scotland - by my reckoning - will look something like this:

LAB (including Speaker) - 31 (-8)
SNP - 13 (+6)

LIB DEM - 9 (-3)

CON - 6 (+5)

The following posts will give information on each constituency - with previous election results, swing required, candidates and Scottish Parliament equivalents. If you know of any factors that I haven't considered (for example, pertinent local issues) drop me a line and I'll update the information.

Read more...

Wednesday, 12 November 2008

A joke that hits home...


My brother's fiancée told a joke at the weekend, which translated roughly as the following:
"Due to the Labour Government's Post Office Closure programme and the current financial climate, Postman Pat has been made redundant. What do people in Greendale now call him?

Pat."
Of course, it works with Fireman Sam too...

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