Thursday, 13 November 2008

Aberdeen North

2005 Result:
Frank Doran LAB – 15,557 (42.5%)
Steve Delaney LD – 8,762 (23.9%)
Kevin Stewart SNP – 8,168 (22.3%)
David Anderson CON – 3,456 (9.4%)

Labour HOLD
Majority: 6,795 over LD

Frank Doran MP
Cllr Kevin Stewart (SNP)*

*Kevin Stewart was originally the SNP candidate, but my sources indicate he is no longer to stand.

Swing required: LD – 9.6% SNP – 10.6% CON – 16.5%

Council area: -
City of Aberdeen (LD-SNP coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Aberdeen Central: LAB (majority 382 over SNP)
Aberdeen North: SNP (majority 3,709 over Lab)
Aberdeen South: LD (majority 2,731 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Aberdeen Central & Aberdeen South)

Electorate: 69,622
From Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Aberdeen Central: 39,639 (56.9%)
Aberdeen North: 29,255 (42.0%)
Aberdeen South: 728 (1.1%)

Should be a straight fight between Labour and the SNP despite LD finishing second in 2005. If national swing from Labour to SNP is between 6% and 8%, expect Aberdeen North to change hands. However, given the recent by-election in Glenrothes (only 5% swing to SNP), as well as local factors (such as the unpopularity of city council) may see Labour hold, albeit with a reduced majority. If the SNP are to get anywhere near Alex Salmond’s target of 20 seats, they must win seats like Aberdeen North. They have the party machine in place, and the past electoral figures would seem to favour them. However, a Westminster election is a different beast from its Scottish Parliament equivalent. Equally, I think that the SNP and Lib Dems will be vying for the same disaffected Labour vote, and may cancel each other out as challengers. I originally had this down as an SNP gain pre-Glenrothes, but now? There is still plenty time, but for the moment I see it as a



Stephen Glenn 13 November 2008 at 13:23  

I hope all 59 aren't going to have the body of the text in italics

BTW Alba has Cllr Kevin Stewart down as the SNP PPC here.

Malc 13 November 2008 at 13:33  

Thanks Stephen. I wasn't aware that Alba did assesments for Westminster elections.

And I'll sort out the text - just for you!

Stephen Glenn 13 November 2008 at 14:28  

Yeah they do you can find my biog on there and everything.

Ta. I'm honoured. ;)

Malc 17 September 2009 at 16:07  

I understand from my sources that Kevin Stewart is no longer the SNP Candidate here... and I've changed it accordingly.

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