Thursday, 13 November 2008

Aberdeen North

2005 Result:
Frank Doran LAB – 15,557 (42.5%)
Steve Delaney LD – 8,762 (23.9%)
Kevin Stewart SNP – 8,168 (22.3%)
David Anderson CON – 3,456 (9.4%)

Labour HOLD
Majority: 6,795 over LD


Candidates:
Frank Doran MP
(LAB)
Cllr Kevin Stewart (SNP)*

*Kevin Stewart was originally the SNP candidate, but my sources indicate he is no longer to stand.


Swing required: LD – 9.6% SNP – 10.6% CON – 16.5%

Council area: -
City of Aberdeen (LD-SNP coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Aberdeen Central: LAB (majority 382 over SNP)
Aberdeen North: SNP (majority 3,709 over Lab)
Aberdeen South: LD (majority 2,731 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Aberdeen Central & Aberdeen South)

Electorate: 69,622
From Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Aberdeen Central: 39,639 (56.9%)
Aberdeen North: 29,255 (42.0%)
Aberdeen South: 728 (1.1%)

Prediction:
Should be a straight fight between Labour and the SNP despite LD finishing second in 2005. If national swing from Labour to SNP is between 6% and 8%, expect Aberdeen North to change hands. However, given the recent by-election in Glenrothes (only 5% swing to SNP), as well as local factors (such as the unpopularity of city council) may see Labour hold, albeit with a reduced majority. If the SNP are to get anywhere near Alex Salmond’s target of 20 seats, they must win seats like Aberdeen North. They have the party machine in place, and the past electoral figures would seem to favour them. However, a Westminster election is a different beast from its Scottish Parliament equivalent. Equally, I think that the SNP and Lib Dems will be vying for the same disaffected Labour vote, and may cancel each other out as challengers. I originally had this down as an SNP gain pre-Glenrothes, but now? There is still plenty time, but for the moment I see it as a

LAB HOLD

4 comments:

Stephen Glenn 13 November 2008 at 13:23  

I hope all 59 aren't going to have the body of the text in italics

BTW Alba has Cllr Kevin Stewart down as the SNP PPC here.

Malc 13 November 2008 at 13:33  

Thanks Stephen. I wasn't aware that Alba did assesments for Westminster elections.

And I'll sort out the text - just for you!

Stephen Glenn 13 November 2008 at 14:28  

Yeah they do you can find my biog on there and everything.

Ta. I'm honoured. ;)

Malc 17 September 2009 at 16:07  

I understand from my sources that Kevin Stewart is no longer the SNP Candidate here... and I've changed it accordingly.

Post a Comment

Contact

Feel free to get in touch with me if you have an issue with something you've read here... or if you simply want to debate some more! You can email me at:

baldy_malc - AT - hotmail - DOT - com

Comment Policy

I'm quite happy - indeed, eager - to engage in debate with others when the topic provides opportunity to do so. I like knowing who I'm debating with and I'm fed up with some abusive anonymous comments so I've disabled those comments for awhile. If you want to comment, log in - it only takes a minute.

Disclaimer

Regrettably, this is probably required:
This blog is my own personal opinion (unless otherwise stated) and does not necessarily reflect the views of any other organisation (political or otherwise) that I am a member of or affiliated to.
Related Posts with Thumbnails

  © Blogger template The Business Templates by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP