Aberdeen North

2005 Result:
Frank Doran LAB – 15,557 (42.5%)
Steve Delaney LD – 8,762 (23.9%)
Kevin Stewart SNP – 8,168 (22.3%)
David Anderson CON – 3,456 (9.4%)
Labour HOLD
Majority: 6,795 over LD

Candidates:
Frank Doran MP (LAB)
Cllr Kevin Stewart (SNP)*

*Kevin Stewart was originally the SNP candidate, but my sources indicate he is no longer to stand.

Swing required: LD – 9.6% SNP – 10.6% CON – 16.5%

Council area: -
City of Aberdeen (LD-SNP coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Aberdeen Central: LAB (majority 382 over SNP)
Aberdeen North: SNP (majority 3,709 over Lab)
Aberdeen South: LD (majority 2,731 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Aberdeen Central & Aberdeen South)

Electorate: 69,622
From Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Aberdeen Central: 39,639 (56.9%)
Aberdeen North: 29,255 (42.0%)
Aberdeen South: 728 (1.1%)

Prediction:
Should be a straight fight between Labour and the SNP despite LD finishing second in 2005. If national swing from Labour to SNP is between 6% and 8%, expect Aberdeen North to change hands. However, given the recent by-election in Glenrothes (only 5% swing to SNP), as well as local factors (such as the unpopularity of city council) may see Labour hold, albeit with a reduced majority. If the SNP are to get anywhere near Alex Salmond’s target of 20 seats, they must win seats like Aberdeen North. They have the party machine in place, and the past electoral figures would seem to favour them. However, a Westminster election is a different beast from its Scottish Parliament equivalent. Equally, I think that the SNP and Lib Dems will be vying for the same disaffected Labour vote, and may cancel each other out as challengers. I originally had this down as an SNP gain pre-Glenrothes, but now? There is still plenty time, but for the moment I see it as a

LAB HOLD