Tuesday, 4 November 2008

US election - LIVE BLOG

0.35 Ohio and North Carolina too close to call. And I'm going to start a new thread - this is getting massive!

0.31
Fox News - and now Sky News - are calling West Virginia (5) for McCain. I must have been a wee bit early with that!
McCain 13
Obama 3

0.30
Polls close in Ohio (super-swing state - might be the tipping point if Obama takes it) West Virginia and North Carolina.

0.26
Scratch the WV chat... I might have read the map wrong... Still only 2 states called.

0.24
FoxNews calls West Virginia (5) for McCain. No other networks has that yet.

0.15
MSNBC has Indiana as Too Close To Call. To reiterate, McCain really needs to win it if he's to keep the race going.

0.09
Just to recap, the states where polls closed at midnight (GMT) are Georgia, Kentucky (RED) South Carolina, Vermont (BLUE), Indiana and Virginia.

Indiana and Virginia the ones to watch - if McCain takes them, we'll be here a while. If they're called for Obama, it could be a quick night.

0.04
Sky News calls Vermont (3) for Obama. No surprises in either result.
McCain 8
Obama 3

0.01
Sky News, FoxNews and ABC call Kentucky (8) for McCain
McCain 8
Obama 0

0.00
Polls close in 6 states

23.55
FiveThirtyEight.com has a slightly different starting point with regards "safe" states for both candidates - giving Obama a 224-110 lead. They also project Obama taking another 87 to win 311-167.

23.50
I never realised this would be so confusing - I have four windows open, with 5 tabs in each and Sky News on. How am I going to manage when the results actually start coming in?!!

23.40
With no results announced yet, Fox News has started its "post-mortem" into the election already with this analysis. Makes interesting reading.

23.31
First precincts reporting in Indiana - 1% have reported. Split 55-44% for Obama after that 1%. 11 Electoral College votes there.

23.30
Radio Five Live has a Republican pollster on, saying exit polls in Indiana, Ohio and Florida too close to call... long time to go on them though.

23.24
Some polls (but not all of them!) have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. That happened at 23.00 here. Should have some kinda call on those two at around midnight.

23.15
Is it just me that finds it odd that California will still be voting when some of the results in the East are announced? I know it is a logistic thing - the size of the States makes it difficult, but I find that strange. Of course, California will vote Obama (there's no question) but people will know who has won before they vote - does that make their vote less valuable?

23.10
Sky News has a starting point of Obama 228 McCain 118 based on polling. If that is indeed the way it goes, Ohio and Pennsylvania would put Obama on 269 - one short of the magic 270. Which means that the early states - Indiana, Virginia etc, might not matter at all. But again, thats only a projection - no results yet.

23.06
I know I said earlier to be cautious with exit polls, and I will be. But the way I was saying was not to read to much of them in Obama's favour - that more people would tell pollsters they were voting for Obama. But these early exits show something different - a shift away from Obama. Hope for McCain? Or straw-clutching?

23.00 (GMT)
Fox News reporting that late ballots will be kept in Virginia - but not necessarily counted. Will this make a difference? Or will it be so far out of the way by then?

22.50 (GMT):
Interesting flowchart for the election here. Shows what happens when someone wins a state and the potential for a win.

22.30 (GMT)
: Okay, I have Sky News on the TV, Mrs in the Burgh is away to bed and I have the first of what I expect will be several cups of tea in front of me. Guess it is time to begin!

Give me a shout if there's anyone about, we can get a debate going. Is this going to end in anything other than an Obama win?

52 comments:

Jen 4 November 2008 at 22:45  

yay! we don't have tv...i need company! i already have to pee from all the cups of tea ;P

Stu,  4 November 2008 at 22:52  

to be honest obama looks like he has it, but remember we cant be in the booth with the voters - i have the west wing box set on for inspiration :)

Malc 4 November 2008 at 22:54  

That's a key point, Stu. No one knows what goes through peoples' heads when they are in the booth.

Jen 4 November 2008 at 22:58  

still...looking pretty bleak for republicans.

this is going to be really anti climatic if some people aren't closet change haters

Stu,  4 November 2008 at 23:01  

i think the people are leaning toward obama as a personality thing. In the booth they could get a pang of loyalty for the party they, or their parents always voted for

Malc 4 November 2008 at 23:04  

Looking bleak indeed. According to some outlets, Dems look to have 58 Senators - not quite the fillibuster-busting 60, but not far off.

Jen 4 November 2008 at 23:06  

though recent exit polls are suggesting it's closer margin than originally predicted...

i think you're right stu...lots of people that got carried away with the popularity and 'cool' factor of obama might reconsider in the booth

stu,  4 November 2008 at 23:11  

or should i say hope they reconsider....

Jen 4 November 2008 at 23:12  

took the words out of my mouth ;P

stu,  4 November 2008 at 23:15  

this is a nice unbiased debate isn't it! ;)

Jen 4 November 2008 at 23:18  

haha. i think we might have 3 of the handful of republican supporters in the uk represented!

Malc 4 November 2008 at 23:19  

I'm sure there are some Democrats somewhere...

Jen 4 November 2008 at 23:21  

there are loads of them....they just don't seem to appreciate your lovely blog malc ;P

Holyrood Patter 4 November 2008 at 23:43  

Think you are right about the way people talk to pollsters. An analysts on bbc says its like sex, no one really gives their true details

Robert Girvan 4 November 2008 at 23:45  

Hey Malcolm,

They do talk about a reverse bradley effect where people claim they are voting for McCain but put the cross next to Obama.

And that Indiana number could become interesting over the course of the evening.

Malc 4 November 2008 at 23:51  

HP,
I'll stick with that line if it looks like I'm right. I'm still leaning towards a narrow Obama win - nothing like the landslides touted elsewhere.

Robert,
Good to have you here. Reverse is interesting, but I can't see that happening. Why get tarred with voting Rep - if you are voting Dem?!

Jen 4 November 2008 at 23:54  

i don't understand the point of reverse bradley?? undercover agents infiltrating the kkk??

Brandon 4 November 2008 at 23:55  

Hey Malc, just got home from work. I am here now though! How have you been? Are you going to introduce me to your friends?

Malc 4 November 2008 at 23:59  

Brandon! Welcome to the madness...

Jen is Canadian Foreign service
Stu is a Scottish rugby player
Holyrood Patter is an SNP guy
Robert Girvan works for Labour

and I'm crazy. Brandon worked at the Scottish Parly.

Where did you vote today?

stu,  5 November 2008 at 00:02  

Thanks Malc. You could have called me a lot of things - i'll take Scottish rugby player

Iain,  5 November 2008 at 00:06  

Good evening/morning malc, just installed the firefox plugin 'refreshevery' so i can keep track of the updates, although im fearing the lack of having to push the refresh button every 20 seconds might make me fall asleep...

Malc 5 November 2008 at 00:07  

Welcome along. Hope it is keeping you awake!

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 00:07  

I voted absentee in Iowa. I thought that my vote would count more in Iowa than in Maryland (were I recently moved--for those wondering if I was also planning to vote in Ohio and Florida). Nice to meet everyone.

Charlotte,  5 November 2008 at 00:10  

i wish iain would stop installing things on my laptop...

Jen 5 November 2008 at 00:10  

aw cheers malc...i would've called myself a homeless gypsy ;P

Malc 5 November 2008 at 00:12  

Brandon - you had three opportunities to vote?! And we wonder how Obama is going to win...

Jen 5 November 2008 at 00:12  

excellent, someone who can actually vote! lol...so do you fit in with our mini republican fest brandon?

Holyrood Patter 5 November 2008 at 00:16  

Always good to have a voter on board brandon. SNP GUY? a shocker. I prefer west wing esque staffer, stalking about teh corridors of power with my blackberry, shouting Buy buy buy, sell sell sell

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 00:23  

Jen,
Like Malc said I used to be apart of the Republican party, but after your bridges start collapsing (I lived 500 feet from the 35W bridge collapse), your economy goes in the tank and your tuition goes up 30% a year (I paid over $75,000 for University)...you just have to jump ship and vote for someone offering a complete split from the status quo.

Malc, you are just jealous because I can vote in this race!!!

Will 5 November 2008 at 00:24  

HP, why would a political staffer shout "Buy" or "Sell"? ;)

Jen 5 November 2008 at 00:25  

brandon - fair enough. i think i'd have a different perspective if i was voting on domestic politics.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 00:28  

"FoxNews calls West Virginia (5) for McCain. No other networks has that yet"

West Virginia polls have not closed yet.

Holyrood Patter 5 November 2008 at 00:30  

Some of these cases, youd be surprised. i'll cut a deal, I stop self promotion via spamming your comments, and you do it for me by putting you in your lovelyblog list

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 00:31  

In addition, my girlfriend works for Walter Reed Military Medical Center here in Washington DC and earns next to nothing as a research assistant. Obama seems to be the best choice for candidates supporting more public research funds.

Malc 5 November 2008 at 00:32  

Thanks Brandon - I fixed it.

Did Victoria vote with you?!

Will 5 November 2008 at 00:34  

HP, you're in my blogroll already and keep spamming my comments as I like the appearance it gives that someone is reading. ;)

Malc 5 November 2008 at 00:40  

How's everyone enjoying their evening so far?!

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 00:43  

its good malc! I fear i may flag begore to long though!

Malc 5 November 2008 at 00:44  

These rugby players - no stamina!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 00:45  

lovely to have some good company! i keep getting rinsed by gobama mama bulmer ;P

Holyrood Patter 5 November 2008 at 00:48  

well persuade malc to do it!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 00:49  

haha. i'd say something (re rugby players) but prob not politically relevant...;P

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 00:52  

well rugby players do get a vote jen, in fact one of my rugby playing friends should be voting today!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 00:54  

really?! well i never ;P

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 00:57  

yeah, he was over here playing for a while now he's gone back home and he is a democrat!

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 01:01  

HUGE: Pennsylvania goes to Obama!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 01:03  

i was only teasing stu, i'm sure most rugby players are keen voters!

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 01:07  

Side bar question, how/why are several Scots interested in following American politics--following the Republican ticket no less?

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 01:12  

brandon its because whatever happens in the states will affect us in the future. On a seperate note there is now a newer thread running. Going to jump ship i think!

Malc 5 November 2008 at 01:18  

Brandon,

Stu makes a point. But also, we're fed up of pseudo-socialists and big government... or something!

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 01:24  

its not mutual appreciation but malc makes a good point. Small government is what your country was founded on - it makes sense to me to continue that way

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