US election - LIVE BLOG
0.35 Ohio and North Carolina too close to call. And I'm going to start a new thread - this is getting massive!
0.31 Fox News - and now Sky News - are calling West Virginia (5) for McCain. I must have been a wee bit early with that!
0.30 Polls close in Ohio (super-swing state - might be the tipping point if Obama takes it) West Virginia and North Carolina.
0.26 Scratch the WV chat... I might have read the map wrong... Still only 2 states called.
0.24 FoxNews calls West Virginia (5) for McCain. No other networks has that yet.
0.15 MSNBC has Indiana as Too Close To Call. To reiterate, McCain really needs to win it if he's to keep the race going.
0.09 Just to recap, the states where polls closed at midnight (GMT) are Georgia, Kentucky (RED) South Carolina, Vermont (BLUE), Indiana and Virginia.
Indiana and Virginia the ones to watch - if McCain takes them, we'll be here a while. If they're called for Obama, it could be a quick night.
0.04 Sky News calls Vermont (3) for Obama. No surprises in either result.
0.01 Sky News, FoxNews and ABC call Kentucky (8) for McCain
0.00 Polls close in 6 states
23.55 FiveThirtyEight.com has a slightly different starting point with regards "safe" states for both candidates - giving Obama a 224-110 lead. They also project Obama taking another 87 to win 311-167.
23.50 I never realised this would be so confusing - I have four windows open, with 5 tabs in each and Sky News on. How am I going to manage when the results actually start coming in?!!
23.40 With no results announced yet, Fox News has started its "post-mortem" into the election already with this analysis. Makes interesting reading.
23.31 First precincts reporting in Indiana - 1% have reported. Split 55-44% for Obama after that 1%. 11 Electoral College votes there.
23.30 Radio Five Live has a Republican pollster on, saying exit polls in Indiana, Ohio and Florida too close to call... long time to go on them though.
23.24 Some polls (but not all of them!) have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. That happened at 23.00 here. Should have some kinda call on those two at around midnight.
23.15 Is it just me that finds it odd that California will still be voting when some of the results in the East are announced? I know it is a logistic thing - the size of the States makes it difficult, but I find that strange. Of course, California will vote Obama (there's no question) but people will know who has won before they vote - does that make their vote less valuable?
23.10 Sky News has a starting point of Obama 228 McCain 118 based on polling. If that is indeed the way it goes, Ohio and Pennsylvania would put Obama on 269 - one short of the magic 270. Which means that the early states - Indiana, Virginia etc, might not matter at all. But again, thats only a projection - no results yet.
23.06 I know I said earlier to be cautious with exit polls, and I will be. But the way I was saying was not to read to much of them in Obama's favour - that more people would tell pollsters they were voting for Obama. But these early exits show something different - a shift away from Obama. Hope for McCain? Or straw-clutching?
23.00 (GMT) Fox News reporting that late ballots will be kept in Virginia - but not necessarily counted. Will this make a difference? Or will it be so far out of the way by then?
22.50 (GMT): Interesting flowchart for the election here. Shows what happens when someone wins a state and the potential for a win.
22.30 (GMT): Okay, I have Sky News on the TV, Mrs in the Burgh is away to bed and I have the first of what I expect will be several cups of tea in front of me. Guess it is time to begin!
Give me a shout if there's anyone about, we can get a debate going. Is this going to end in anything other than an Obama win?
0.31 Fox News - and now Sky News - are calling West Virginia (5) for McCain. I must have been a wee bit early with that!
McCain 13
Obama 3
Obama 3
0.30 Polls close in Ohio (super-swing state - might be the tipping point if Obama takes it) West Virginia and North Carolina.
0.26 Scratch the WV chat... I might have read the map wrong... Still only 2 states called.
0.24 FoxNews calls West Virginia (5) for McCain. No other networks has that yet.
0.15 MSNBC has Indiana as Too Close To Call. To reiterate, McCain really needs to win it if he's to keep the race going.
0.09 Just to recap, the states where polls closed at midnight (GMT) are Georgia, Kentucky (RED) South Carolina, Vermont (BLUE), Indiana and Virginia.
Indiana and Virginia the ones to watch - if McCain takes them, we'll be here a while. If they're called for Obama, it could be a quick night.
0.04 Sky News calls Vermont (3) for Obama. No surprises in either result.
McCain 8
Obama 3
Obama 3
0.01 Sky News, FoxNews and ABC call Kentucky (8) for McCain
McCain 8
Obama 0
Obama 0
0.00 Polls close in 6 states
23.55 FiveThirtyEight.com has a slightly different starting point with regards "safe" states for both candidates - giving Obama a 224-110 lead. They also project Obama taking another 87 to win 311-167.
23.50 I never realised this would be so confusing - I have four windows open, with 5 tabs in each and Sky News on. How am I going to manage when the results actually start coming in?!!
23.40 With no results announced yet, Fox News has started its "post-mortem" into the election already with this analysis. Makes interesting reading.
23.31 First precincts reporting in Indiana - 1% have reported. Split 55-44% for Obama after that 1%. 11 Electoral College votes there.
23.30 Radio Five Live has a Republican pollster on, saying exit polls in Indiana, Ohio and Florida too close to call... long time to go on them though.
23.24 Some polls (but not all of them!) have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. That happened at 23.00 here. Should have some kinda call on those two at around midnight.
23.15 Is it just me that finds it odd that California will still be voting when some of the results in the East are announced? I know it is a logistic thing - the size of the States makes it difficult, but I find that strange. Of course, California will vote Obama (there's no question) but people will know who has won before they vote - does that make their vote less valuable?
23.10 Sky News has a starting point of Obama 228 McCain 118 based on polling. If that is indeed the way it goes, Ohio and Pennsylvania would put Obama on 269 - one short of the magic 270. Which means that the early states - Indiana, Virginia etc, might not matter at all. But again, thats only a projection - no results yet.
23.06 I know I said earlier to be cautious with exit polls, and I will be. But the way I was saying was not to read to much of them in Obama's favour - that more people would tell pollsters they were voting for Obama. But these early exits show something different - a shift away from Obama. Hope for McCain? Or straw-clutching?
23.00 (GMT) Fox News reporting that late ballots will be kept in Virginia - but not necessarily counted. Will this make a difference? Or will it be so far out of the way by then?
22.50 (GMT): Interesting flowchart for the election here. Shows what happens when someone wins a state and the potential for a win.
22.30 (GMT): Okay, I have Sky News on the TV, Mrs in the Burgh is away to bed and I have the first of what I expect will be several cups of tea in front of me. Guess it is time to begin!
Give me a shout if there's anyone about, we can get a debate going. Is this going to end in anything other than an Obama win?
52 comments:
yay! we don't have tv...i need company! i already have to pee from all the cups of tea ;P
to be honest obama looks like he has it, but remember we cant be in the booth with the voters - i have the west wing box set on for inspiration :)
That's a key point, Stu. No one knows what goes through peoples' heads when they are in the booth.
still...looking pretty bleak for republicans.
this is going to be really anti climatic if some people aren't closet change haters
i think the people are leaning toward obama as a personality thing. In the booth they could get a pang of loyalty for the party they, or their parents always voted for
Looking bleak indeed. According to some outlets, Dems look to have 58 Senators - not quite the fillibuster-busting 60, but not far off.
though recent exit polls are suggesting it's closer margin than originally predicted...
i think you're right stu...lots of people that got carried away with the popularity and 'cool' factor of obama might reconsider in the booth
or should i say hope they reconsider....
took the words out of my mouth ;P
this is a nice unbiased debate isn't it! ;)
haha. i think we might have 3 of the handful of republican supporters in the uk represented!
I'm sure there are some Democrats somewhere...
there are loads of them....they just don't seem to appreciate your lovely blog malc ;P
Think you are right about the way people talk to pollsters. An analysts on bbc says its like sex, no one really gives their true details
Hey Malcolm,
They do talk about a reverse bradley effect where people claim they are voting for McCain but put the cross next to Obama.
And that Indiana number could become interesting over the course of the evening.
HP,
I'll stick with that line if it looks like I'm right. I'm still leaning towards a narrow Obama win - nothing like the landslides touted elsewhere.
Robert,
Good to have you here. Reverse is interesting, but I can't see that happening. Why get tarred with voting Rep - if you are voting Dem?!
i don't understand the point of reverse bradley?? undercover agents infiltrating the kkk??
Hey Malc, just got home from work. I am here now though! How have you been? Are you going to introduce me to your friends?
Brandon! Welcome to the madness...
Jen is Canadian Foreign service
Stu is a Scottish rugby player
Holyrood Patter is an SNP guy
Robert Girvan works for Labour
and I'm crazy. Brandon worked at the Scottish Parly.
Where did you vote today?
Thanks Malc. You could have called me a lot of things - i'll take Scottish rugby player
Good evening/morning malc, just installed the firefox plugin 'refreshevery' so i can keep track of the updates, although im fearing the lack of having to push the refresh button every 20 seconds might make me fall asleep...
Welcome along. Hope it is keeping you awake!
I voted absentee in Iowa. I thought that my vote would count more in Iowa than in Maryland (were I recently moved--for those wondering if I was also planning to vote in Ohio and Florida). Nice to meet everyone.
i wish iain would stop installing things on my laptop...
aw cheers malc...i would've called myself a homeless gypsy ;P
Brandon - you had three opportunities to vote?! And we wonder how Obama is going to win...
excellent, someone who can actually vote! lol...so do you fit in with our mini republican fest brandon?
He used to...
Always good to have a voter on board brandon. SNP GUY? a shocker. I prefer west wing esque staffer, stalking about teh corridors of power with my blackberry, shouting Buy buy buy, sell sell sell
Jen,
Like Malc said I used to be apart of the Republican party, but after your bridges start collapsing (I lived 500 feet from the 35W bridge collapse), your economy goes in the tank and your tuition goes up 30% a year (I paid over $75,000 for University)...you just have to jump ship and vote for someone offering a complete split from the status quo.
Malc, you are just jealous because I can vote in this race!!!
HP, why would a political staffer shout "Buy" or "Sell"? ;)
brandon - fair enough. i think i'd have a different perspective if i was voting on domestic politics.
"FoxNews calls West Virginia (5) for McCain. No other networks has that yet"
West Virginia polls have not closed yet.
Some of these cases, youd be surprised. i'll cut a deal, I stop self promotion via spamming your comments, and you do it for me by putting you in your lovelyblog list
In addition, my girlfriend works for Walter Reed Military Medical Center here in Washington DC and earns next to nothing as a research assistant. Obama seems to be the best choice for candidates supporting more public research funds.
Thanks Brandon - I fixed it.
Did Victoria vote with you?!
HP, you're in my blogroll already and keep spamming my comments as I like the appearance it gives that someone is reading. ;)
How's everyone enjoying their evening so far?!
its good malc! I fear i may flag begore to long though!
These rugby players - no stamina!
lovely to have some good company! i keep getting rinsed by gobama mama bulmer ;P
well persuade malc to do it!
haha. i'd say something (re rugby players) but prob not politically relevant...;P
well rugby players do get a vote jen, in fact one of my rugby playing friends should be voting today!
really?! well i never ;P
yeah, he was over here playing for a while now he's gone back home and he is a democrat!
HUGE: Pennsylvania goes to Obama!
i was only teasing stu, i'm sure most rugby players are keen voters!
Side bar question, how/why are several Scots interested in following American politics--following the Republican ticket no less?
brandon its because whatever happens in the states will affect us in the future. On a seperate note there is now a newer thread running. Going to jump ship i think!
Brandon,
Stu makes a point. But also, we're fed up of pseudo-socialists and big government... or something!
its not mutual appreciation but malc makes a good point. Small government is what your country was founded on - it makes sense to me to continue that way
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