Wednesday, 5 November 2008

US election - LIVE BLOG #2

2.28 Looking like its over - but I'll shift to another thread for the conclusion.

2.24 MASSIVE MOMENT
Sky News - Obama WINS OHIO. 20 EV for him... surely over now.
McCain 81
Obama 195

2.23
Democrats have retained control of the Senate. They now have 52 Senators. Running up the score now.

2.20
FoxNews projects OHIO for Obama - again. Based on 9% of the precincts reporting. If that goes blue, they can start opening the champagne...

2.14
In fact, looking at the whole map... and taking out the states that haven't changed hands in years - McCain can only really afford to lose Nevada. He'd need to win everywhere else - Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Mexico and Colorado. And that is a big ask.

2.12
Forgetting Florida and Ohio - which would make it big - if Obama can find a win in Colorado, he's pretty much got it won.

2.10
Kansas (6) for McCain - Sky News.
McCain 81
Obama 175

2.08
We're getting into the realms of winning territory now - Sky News calls Michigan (17) for Obama. McCain takes Wyoming (3).
McCain 75
Obama 175

2.06
Sky News calls Minnesota (10), Rhode Island (4) for Obama
McCain 72
Obama 158

2.04
Sky News calls North Dakota (3) for McCain.
McCain 72
Obama 144

2.03
Sky News calls New York (31), Wisconsin (10) for Obama
McCain 69
Obama 144

2.01
Fox calls OHIO for Obama but retracts...

2.01
Fox gives Obama Wisconsin, New Mexico, New York

2.00
Some more projections imminent...

1.53
Five more polls close in seven minutes.

1.43
Sky News also calls Georgia (15) - for McCain. Something of a revival?
McCain 69
Obama 103

1.42
Sky News finally calls Connecticut for Obama. My numbers are aligned again.
McCain 54
Obama 103

1.40
Irvine Welsh (of "Trainspotting" authoring fame) is on Sky News, being interviewed in Florida. They're still calling it as "too close" but Obama ahead by a nose... THAT really would be curtains.

1.32
Arkansas (6), Alabama (9) and Oklahoma (7) all called for McCain by Sky News.
McCain 54
Obama 103 (-7 CONN is 96)

1.30
Sky News gives Obama Illinois (21) - but hasn't yet called Connecticut which I have - which I think is where the numbers are skewed.
McCain 32
Obama 103 (-7 CONN is 96)

1.29 Sky News gives Obama Pennsylvania (21).... and I think, the election.
McCain 32
Obama 82

1.23
Arkansas polls close at 1.30 GMT. ABC and MSNBC call Oklahoma for McCain. I'm still waiting for Sky for Penn. Polls showing Obama ahead in Ohio as well, Florida too close to call.

1.19
Sky News gives Obama New Jersey (15).
McCain 32
Obama 61

1.16
For some reason Sky has the score as 39-32. And I can't work out why!

1.13
Sky News calls New Hampshire (4) for Obama.
McCain 32
Obama 46

1.12
ABC also projects Pennsylvania for Obama too...

1.08
MSNBC has projected Pennsylvania - crucially - for Obama... but no other networks calling it yet. That's potentially game over.

1.04
Delaware (3), Maine (4), Connecticut (7), Washington D.C (3) for Obama; Tennessee (11) for McCain.
McCain 32
Obama 42

1.03
Sky News also calls Maryland (10) for Obama.
McCain 21
Obama 25

1.02 Sky News calls Mass. for Obama.
McCain 21
Obama 15

1.01
Fox News projects Massachusetts (12 votes) for Obama. I'm waiting for Sky to call it as well before I update.

1.00
15 more states close polls. Plus D.C I won't list them all. But includes Pennsylvania and Florida - two key states. Incidentally, Sky News says Georgia is too close to call.

0.51
Sky News gives McCain South Carolina with 8 Electoral Votes.
McCain 21
Obama 3

00.47
I need another cup of tea.

0.45
Republican commentator on Sky News telling us that Palin has won over a lot of disaffected Hillary voters. Anyone buy it?

0.43
With 12% of precincts reporting in Indiana, CNN has McCain leading 51-48. That's a biggie - long way to go yet.

0.41 (GMT)
I took the photo below. True story. Everyone having a good time?


53 comments:

fmag,  5 November 2008 at 00:52  

this is all too addictive, i really need some sleep; i have an essay to write tomorrow!!

i think the election will be a lot closer than people think. I believe the Hillary voters converting, women feel underrepresented etc.

I still don't fully trust Obama but I think it is probable he will scrape it.

Richard S 5 November 2008 at 00:54  

Hi malc - i'd guess may not remember me from school. Good work on the blog and I have enjoyed reading. Have to say I think its an Obama win but we'll find out soon enough I guess!

More tea definitely required!

Holyrood Patter 5 November 2008 at 00:55  

Back to where you belong at the top of my blog list. Even after I chuck the blogging in an hour or so I will still hopefully chip in here

Malc 5 November 2008 at 00:55  

I think Obama will win, narrowly.

Richard S - Sutherland?

Richard S 5 November 2008 at 01:01  

Richard Streeter.

Also enjoying the life of a Phd student in Edinburgh!

Pennsylvania has just been called for Obama so not good news for McCain.

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 01:07  

Well i've had a cup of green tea so may manage to stay up a bit longer!!

Mr Streeter!! How are you? Think your probably right with the obama win but fmag makes a good point about Hillary voters

Malc 5 November 2008 at 01:10  

Streeter!

Penn has only been projected by NBC. So we'll see...

Richard S 5 November 2008 at 01:13  

Hello Stu, i'm well thanks. Tea is definitely the way forward, although I think it's not going to be too long before an Obama win becomes a certainty... its just a matter of how big the margin is.

Holyrood Patter 5 November 2008 at 01:14  

nice cosy friends reunited among you neo cons :)
Okay Malc, Ill ask. Iv stayed up until nearly 130am. can i be in your fancy blog list?

Malc 5 November 2008 at 01:15  

Ha...

Can I do it tomorrow? I'm a bit busy just now!

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 01:17  

Democrats pick up a Senate seat in New Hampshire, that's plus two for the night for the Dems.

Jen 5 November 2008 at 01:19  

i'm with malc on this one, if florida is for obama i think it might be bed time!!....bbc is also reporting PA as blue.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 01:24  

"0.45 Republican commentator on Sky News telling us that Palin has won over a lot of disaffected Hillary voters. Anyone buy it?"

What! No way...she shares nothing in common. That's another "poll question" I have for the group...what do you all think of Palin?

Holyrood Patter 5 November 2008 at 01:26  

to sum her up like a movie trailer:


"Think no one is a bad as bush. Think again."

Malc 5 November 2008 at 01:26  

She's a woman. She shares plenty in common... like the ability to have children... and a slightly higher voice than most men.

I think she was a good pick... but it went badly wrong.

Jen 5 November 2008 at 01:27  

no way she's pulling many hillary voters to the 'dark' side...the only thing they have in common is wearing lipstick.

i love palin. but purely for comedy value.

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 01:31  

Yeah i dont think she is all bad. She didn't do herself many favours but she isn't half as bad as she has been portrayed.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 01:31  

HP, good one! For anyone on the fence about her, check out this video of her voting:

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/11/04/vo.palin.votes.cnn?iref=videosearch

Tel me that wasn't rehearsed.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 01:32  

+3 for the Dems in the Senate.

Jen 5 November 2008 at 01:33  

i also think she's been mocked and taken the piss out of in a way that would've been deemed inappropriate for any other candidate...i'd suggest this is because she's actually a 'feminine' woman...but maybe thts bull

Malc 5 November 2008 at 01:35  

I'm with Jen on that... if the BBC had behaved anything like the way your media has in this election, there'd be serious questions asked.

Oh wait... Justin Webb is just as bad!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 01:37  

i think the media and celebs played a massive role in this election

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 01:39  

I think she may have possibly been perceived as being too strong a personality for a woman vp. In my opinion she was intentionally taken down a peg or two

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 01:42  

think the election is probably over now....potential bed!!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 01:42  

def in agreement stu

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 01:44  

I guess I have been a little bias reporting only Democratic news. To clarify my above post I will attempt to talk about the Republicans more.

The North Carolina Senate race had become extremely heated in the last few weeks. Elizabeth Dole, the incumbent Republican candidate, has come under attack for taking the Republican motto of "a hands off government" to a new level--for the past decade she has lived in the infamous Watergate Hotel in DC (hundreds of miles away from the state she represents). My roommate, who works for a Public Land Non-Profit here in DC, says that she has promised to protect public lands multiple times, but never shows up to vote in the Senate on those issues...long story short: she WAS a do nothing Senator who rode the coattails of her husband Bob Dole.

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 01:44  

bit of an anticlimax, really hoped it could have turned out to be a better fight!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 01:45  

i think i'll wait for news about florida

Malc 5 November 2008 at 01:45  

I'd heard that too Brandon

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 01:56  

when we expecting florida?

Jen 5 November 2008 at 01:59  

soon i hope!! though what about the military votes? hve those already been counted?

Malc 5 November 2008 at 01:59  

Say half an hour.

Chat has dried up a bit here - are people sleeping now?

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 02:00  

After the Supreme Court rules that Palm Beach County is no longer a part of the Union. Why can't 65+ voters fill in an arrow?

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 02:03  

someone correct me if i'm wrong but i believe the military vote comes in later jen. Clutching at straws i think though!!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:03  

bbc is reporting ohio as blue...is that it then?

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 02:06  

Only 5 percent of the vote is in for Ohio. MSNBC cannot call it yet.

Richard S 5 November 2008 at 02:07  

not quite gone to bed yet - i get the feeling that one of the states Obama needs is going to be called for him soon - probably Ohio although if Fox is calling New Mexico thats also good news for Obama

Malc 5 November 2008 at 02:08  

It was Fox that called Ohio... then changed their minds. Bizarre that it was Fox though...

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 02:14  

almost at next goals the winner stage!!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:16  

aw sports chat warranted ;P

Malc 5 November 2008 at 02:17  

Yeah, McCain needs a miracle now...

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 02:18  

I am a rugby player. Sports chat is what i know!

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:19  

well they do have the angels on their side ;P

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:21  

comes in handy ;P sadly i'm not down on my sports metaphors unless we're talking hockey

Caron 5 November 2008 at 02:21  

The Democrats have apparently picked up the Senate seat in North Carolina, which can't be a bad thing. Elizabeth Dole has been beaten.

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 02:23  

Hockey?! - i suppose someone has to play it!

I'm ready for a conclusion - i need bed!

Malc 5 November 2008 at 02:25  

You might get it soon...

Richard S 5 November 2008 at 02:26  

looks like its all over now and off to bed for me. thanks for the coverage malc.

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:27  

yikes ohio..game over...

hockey is the sport of kings! well canadian kings. you'd like it. it's like rugby on ice

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:30  

that sounds fruity.....god i'm tired!!

Stu,  5 November 2008 at 02:31  

fruity?! you must be tired!

Yeah time for bed. Cheers Malc, see you friday

Malc 5 November 2008 at 02:34  

Catch ya big Stu. Thanks for your chat.

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:34  

yea, rugby on ice sounds a bit too much like disney on ice or some such bollox ;) i'm also out. thanks for the company all

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