Wednesday, 5 November 2008

US election - LIVE BLOG #3

UPDATE 11.25 I was going to round off the numbers, but there are still a couple of states that remain uncalled. Sky News has Montana (3) and Alaska (3) for McCain. And Indiana (11) for Obama. Not that it really matters now.
McCain 161
Obama 349

Still to call: North Carolina (15) (leaning Obama) and Missouri (11) (leaning McCain. If those were to go that way, final state by state would read:
McCain 172
Obama 364

But I'll hold off on that for a little while.

4.45
It is nearly 5am here and I'm calling it a night. There are still five states in play - Alaska, Missouri (probably McCain), Montana (probably Obama) and Indiana and North Carolina (probably Obama but too close to call really).

I'd like to thank everyone who has commented/ read these meanderings over the past 6(!) hours. Hope you've enjoyed it. I'll be back with some analysis in a few hours - after I've had some sleep. And then there's Glenrothes on Thursday. Arrabest!

4.38
Sky News has Nevada (5) for Obama as well.
McCain 155
Obama 338

4.36
Sky News calls Colorado (9) for Obama.
McCain 155
Obama 333

4.30
I really hope that Obama considers offering McCain a Cabinet post - or am I going a but West Wing Season 7 on you all?

4.25
McCain's concession speech really is something.

4.20
Sky News calls Florida (27) for Obama. Getting near that landslide that I said wouldn't happen... but Arizona (10) called for native McCain.
McCain 155
Obama 324

4.18
McCain on stage in Arizona.

4.17
Colorado, Indiana and FLORIDA projected for Obama by various US networks. No confirmation yet.

4.11
McCain has called Obama and conceded the election; about to address crowd in Arizona.

4.04
Sky News calls Califonia (55), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4) and Washington (11) for Obama, Idaho (4) for McCain
McCain 145
Obama 297

4.02 SKY NEWS CALLS ELECTION FOR BARACK OBAMA - 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA


4.01
Sky News calls VIRGINIA (13) for Obama. That's almost all folks...
McCain 141
Obama 220

4.00
Polls closed in California, Washington and Oregon.

3.59
McCain to address rally shortly - in about a minute and a half apparently.

3.58
California on the verge of declaring for Obama... is there a slightly overweight woman warming up her vocal chords somewhere?

3.50
Fox and AP are calling Virginia for Obama. Looks like the tipping point, would put Obama on 220 - with California's 55 putting him over the top. Concession speech on the way?

3.44
36 states have now been called

3.40
Sky News calls South Dakota (3) for McCain.
McCain 141
Obama 207

3.33
Sky News projects McCain to win 3 of Nebraska's EC votes (split college).
McCain 138
Obama 207

3.26
Question being asked on Sky News: "Where were you when Barack Obama was elected as the first African American US President?" Well, I was right here, bringing the news to you!

3.17
There's a guy being interviewed on Sky News just now - his name is Bob Weiner. That's my moment of light-hearted humour for the morning.

3.12
Sky News: John McCain "moments away" from a concession speech... one more state for Obama (plus California's 55 votes) will tip it.

3.01
Sky News: Obama wins Iowa (7), McCain wins Utah (5), Mississippi (6)
McCain 135
Obama 207

3.00
Sky News does indeed give Texas (34) to McCain.
McCain 124
Obama 200

2.55
BBC, ABC both call Texas for McCain, though I'll still hold off on that until Sky News...

2.52
ABC projects that Mississippi will, unsurprisingly, go red.

2.50
According to MSNBC, the popular vote figures at 50%-49% to Obama - with 36 million votes counted...

2.44
With California, Oregon and Washington state to come (which will, in all likelihood, go Democrat) we're looking at Obama making 284 without too much trouble - passing 270 with some ease. And I should have taken some money on Obama...

2.40
Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah shortly... not that they are going to matter much!

2.33
Sky News calls Louisiana (9) for McCain, New Mexico (5) for Obama.
McCain 90
Obama 200

2.32
I keep saying this, but Florida still too close to call.

2.30
New thread required I feel for the imminent conclusion of this race... and a picture of the man who presumably will be the 44th President of the United States of America.

49 comments:

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:31  

booo urns....i might not stay up for the aftermath

Malc 5 November 2008 at 02:34  

There's not long to go now - he only needs 70.

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:36  

true...i hate anticlimactic elections :(

Malc 5 November 2008 at 02:41  

Just Jen that's still here?

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:41  

though rather interested as to how next few years will pan out....will there be change we can believe in ;P

Jen 5 November 2008 at 02:42  

haha. i feel unloved

Malc 5 November 2008 at 02:43  

Ha! I was just seeing if everyone else had packed up and gone to bed!

Malc 5 November 2008 at 02:51  

Good lad - you're like a submarine... gone quiet.

What's your chat....

Will 5 November 2008 at 02:56  

Still here, with my finger pressing F5 over and over again.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 02:56  

I sincerely convinced, to respond to Jen, that Obama will unite the country. Watching him speak and seeing him interacting and connecting to voters is very impressive. On multiple occasions Obama silenced McCain booing at his rally with as simple, "you don't need to boo, you just need to vote." It was not until later in the campaign that McCain silenced false rumors about Obama's religion or race.

Even his interaction with his family and friends is comforting. He is a great man with a intellectual aptitude to approach difficult problems with a steady hand like no presidential candidate since Kennedy.

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:00  

Brandon, I hope you are right. I've heard him speak a few times and I though of him as a Tony Blair type - a lot of spin and style, little substance. But we'll soon see.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 03:12  

For what it is worth, I respect McCain for who he was as an Arizona Senator, but the "republican base" effectively hijacked his opinions and blunted his ability to lead those who may disagree with his viewpoint.

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:16  

If I'm being honest, the Republicans ran the right guy - but even if they were running Kennedy's for president and VP, they still were not winning this election.

As I've said before, the media backed Obama and the race was really over before it started.

Incidentally, this race - from the moment Bush was re-elected in 2004 - was the Democrats to lose. After the Republican convention it looked like they might... but I think Palin put paid to that.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 03:17  

Obama's reaction to the economic crisis was calm, clear and inquisitive. McCain could not decide what his approach should be...should he suspend his campaign? Should he debate? It was unfortunate because it was clear that the advisors where making the decisions rather than the candidate.

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:19  

Yeah, that was a disaster. I reckon he should have said "screw it" and called the whole thing off - including the debate. That would have been decisive.

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:22  

Hullo! You've missed.... I was going to say an exciting night... I guess predictable would be more apt.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 03:26  

Malc, we haven't talked about this yet, but what draws you to McCain as a Candidate?

PJ 5 November 2008 at 03:27  

I've been dipping in and out during the night. Don't think I'll read all of the comments on your threads though...there's heaps of them!!

Glad to be here now. Take it quiet optimism has faded?

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:31  

McCain. Maverick. Conservative - but not a right-wing nut (Ms Palin?). He's a good man. If I'm being totally honest, I've not been won over by Obama's charm like everyone else. It's not like McCain is the "least worst" candidate though - his politics align quite closely with mine...

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:32  

PJ - wasn't so much quiet optimism as defiance... but yeah, I think, quite comfortably, this is over.

PJ 5 November 2008 at 03:39  

BBC are discussing that McCain's maverck label was nothing more than an ideal as his voting record was 90% aligned to Bush. And that turned voters away from him

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:42  

I don't think that's what it was. I'm much more inclined to say the media put the writing on the wall for the campaign early on.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 03:47  

National Public Radio just called Virginia for Obama.

PJ 5 November 2008 at 03:49  

Yeah, you're right about that. The MSM chose their favoured candidate a while ago (now if I didn't read your blog I would never have been able to use the term MSM!)

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:52  

Ha... MSM is useful - coz it excludes bloggers like me!

Brandon, Fox & AP have called it too. 92% counted - Obama narrowly ahead. Looks like the overweight woman can start warming up her vocals!

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 03:52  

As the voice of a voter here in the US, the Bush branding played an enormous role in swaying independents away from McCain. The economic catastrophe that unraveled was directly linked to the deregulation efforts of the Bush Administration. Many Bush Administration appointees pushed hard for deregulation of the futures market that helped destabilize the housing market in the US.

Anonymous,  5 November 2008 at 03:54  

Malc, Gary here!! Just got in from having summin 2 eat.

Interesting news from the polling station. Young people are out in high numbers.

Also there is 115,000 registered voters in Whatcom County (where I am) and at 4pm there was 89,000 votes already cast...massive turnout me thinks!!!

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:55  

Sure - but the question is this: would the branding have hit home without the MSM's support of Obama? I agree though - tagging McCain with Bush-fever was smart by the Dems...

Malc 5 November 2008 at 03:56  

Coull - yep, turnout is huge. You're in Washington state, right?

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 04:03  

ABC has declared Barack Obama as President-elect.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 04:04  

California, Washington and Oregon all were carried by Obama

Malc 5 November 2008 at 04:04  

Yeah... Most networks are calling it now...

Anonymous,  5 November 2008 at 04:09  

GC again!

Yeh Washington state...most likely to be Dem. Remember though polls have only just closed in the West so there's no official results from there yet.

However it is very likely that Obama will carry the West states.

We have to remember though that the college system makes it look a bigger margain than it actually will be...looking at the popular vote it's not a huge difference!

Malc 5 November 2008 at 04:11  

Networks have called all of the Western states for Obama. Agreed - the popular vote is something like 1%.

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 04:11  

You heading to bed now too?

Malc 5 November 2008 at 04:13  

I probably should, but I'd like to hear the President-elect speak... if I can stay awake until 5am.

Also, don't really want to disturb the boss by crawling into bed now!

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 04:26  

That's true, mine just went to bed about 30 minutes ago, she has a surgery to attend to tomorrow. We need to talk soon.

Malc 5 November 2008 at 04:27  

We've got skype now... will try to arrange that at some point.

PJ 5 November 2008 at 04:28  

Admirable dignity in defeat

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 04:29  

I am very impressed with Senator John McCain's concession speech. He is a man of honor and a true American Patriot.

Malc 5 November 2008 at 04:31  

McCain's concession speech was as you say - humility and graciousness. He'd have made a great President...

Brandon 5 November 2008 at 04:34  

He still does make a great Senator.

Caron 5 November 2008 at 04:34  

McCain was excellent - he couldn't have done a more generous and dignified concession speech.

I have to say I have never been so glad to be wrong in my life.....

Anonymous,  5 November 2008 at 04:44  

GC here

Agree it was an excellent speech...best I've heard him. If he spoke like that during the campaign the story may well be different!

Malc 5 November 2008 at 04:46  

He did... fairly early on.

PJ 5 November 2008 at 04:49  

Good night Malc, and thanks as always for sharing your thoughts

Jens 5 November 2008 at 04:54  

Alright...fortunately Obama did it. Yeah! But there is one question that worries my mind...we have an African-American in the White House...last few times I saw such a thing on television few seconds later UFOs showed up or a huge nuke blast alights the screen ;) Hope this story isn't made by hollywood :D:D:D

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