Wednesday, 23 April 2008

No further forward...

So... Hillary did it, and beat Barack Obama 55-45% in Pennsylvania. It was a big win - and got her back into the race for the Democratic nomination. The win got her a further 81 delegates with Obama picking up 70.

According to her reading of the situation (which includes the votes cast for her in Michigan & Florida - states which were disqualified from the nomination process) she's now ahead of Obama by about 100,000 votes (15.1m to 15m). Without those states, Obama leads by 14.4m to 13.9m. But, given that the race is based on delegates and not the popular vote in primaries (as caucuses also deliver delegates) it makes more sense to look at the delegate scorecard. And on that front, Obama still leads. Associated Press has the Illinois Senator on 1,719 delegates, with Clinton on 1,591, including superdelegates who have already pledged their support. 2,025 is the magic number required for the nomination.

Obama is also ahead in polls in the remaining larger states of North Carolina and Indiana, both of which go to polls on May 6th. After that, primaries in Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico and caucuses in Guam will decide the contest by the beginning of June. Failing that, the Democratic National Convention meets in August to endorse their nominee.

Meanwhile, Republican candidate John McCain is keeping quiet over who he wants to win the Democratic race... and the length of time it is taking them to decide. He's creeping ahead in the polls though, implying that the Democrats indecision may well be contributing to a defeat in November...

1 comments:

This Is Alba 24 April 2008 at 16:43  

Hilary's choice to include Michigan/Florida in her calculations is certainly suspect given that no other candidates actually campaigned in these two states.

Unfortunately for Hilary she has little chance of overturning Obama's lead. The sensible option would be to concede defeat. But since when has politics been about sense!

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