Central Ayrshire

2005 result:
Brian Donohoe LAB – 19,905 (46.4%)
Garry Clark CON – 9,482 (22.1%)
Iain Kennedy LD – 6,881 (16.1%)
Jahangir Hanif SNP – 4,969 (11.6%)
LABOUR HOLD
Majority: 10,423 over CON

Candidates:
Brian Donohoe MP (LAB)
Phil Gallie (CON)

Swing required: CON – 12.15% LD – 15.15% SNP – 17.4%

Council area: -
North Ayrshire (LAB minority)
South Ayrshire (CON minority)

Scottish Parliament: -
Ayr: CON (majority - 3,906 over LAB)
Cunninghame South: LAB (majority – 2,168 over SNP)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley: LAB (majority - 3,986 over SNP)

Electorate: 69,161
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Ayr: 33,544 (48.5%)
Cunninghame South: 32,760 (47.4%)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley: (4.1%)

Prediction:
Despite the Tories holding onto Ayr in the Scottish Parliament, this remains very much Labour heartland territory. With a majority of over 10,000, Brian Donohoe should be safely returned for Labour in a straight Labour-Tory fight. Phil Gallie will give him a decent run for it, though he won’t be returning to Westminster. He should slash the Labour majority, possibly in half, and give the Tories hope for winning the seat next time out – though it is a big Labour area. If the Lib Dems are having a particularly bad night, look out for them dropping to fourth while the SNP shore up their vote on the back of an increased national share of the vote. LAB HOLD