Challenge - the prediction

Further to my challenge to ASwaS, here's how I think the swing states will go in November. I should preface it by saying that I think the result of the 2004 Electoral College will largely be repeated - with only 5 states switching from one candidate to the other.

12 Swing states:

New Mexico
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 0.8%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Epitome of a close call – in 2000 it was DEM by just 366 votes, last time REP by less than 6,000. Swinging DEM again with the congressional delegation and the Governorship – Bill Richardson has endorsed Barack Obama. High population of Hispanics – marginally – calling this one for Obama.
NEW MEXICO – DEM (+5)

Colorado
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 9
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 5%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

While the Democrats have seen a swing towards them in recent congressional elections (2 congressmen, one senator) and the gubernatorial due to the growing Hispanic population, Colorado is a Republican stronghold. DEMs last won the state when Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, but that may change in November.
COLORADO – DEM (+9)

Iowa
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 7
Margin of victory, 2004: Republican, 0.8%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Historically the Democratic candidate has won Iowa. However, on his way to a second term in 2004, George W. Bush edged a close victory for the Republicans. With Iowa bordering Obama’s home state (Illinois) and his decent polling in the state, it could switch back to DEM.
IOWA – DEM (+7)

Ohio
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 20
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 2%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Ohio is a key state, not least for the fact that 20 electoral votes are available to the winner. Democrats now have the Governor, a Senator and a Congressman – all elected in 2006 mid-terms, but Barack Obama had failed to win over Ohio’s blue-collar workers in the primaries. John McCain’s choice of running mate may swing the state back to the Republicans, enough to hold off Obama’s charge here.
OHIO – REP (N/C)

Virginia
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 13
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 8%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Virginia has been solidly Republican since the 1970s but now, like many of the swing states, has a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator was elected in the mid-terms in 2006. However, it will require a large change for Barack Obama to win here. If he does, it is game over for McCain. But I don’t think that will happen.
VIRGINIA – REP (N/C)

Florida
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 27
Margin of victory in 2004: Republican, 5%
Recent election history: 1992 1996 2000 2004

Florida proved the controversial winning post for George Bush in 2000 when a Supreme Court decision was required to decide the election. However, 2004 saw the Republicans win back the state more comfortably. John McCain won a hard-fought Republican primary here, and should replicate that victory in November.
FLORIDA – REP (N/C)

On the basis that they border Obama’s home state (or, at least, the state he represents) of Illinois, I’d suggest that Minnesota and Wisconsin will remain with the Democrats. New Hampshire voted Bush in 2000 but will probably stay Democrat this time out. Michigan, with 17 electoral votes and Pennsylvania with 21 are two states which I think could go either way. If Obama loses either – and there is potential given his lack of appeal to blue-collar workers – then the game is over. I’d expect Pennsylvania to remain blue but won’t be surprise if Michigan (+17) turns red. I'm also - at the last minute - deciding to give Obama Nevada (+5).

And in those 12 states, the 2008 Presidential Election will be won and lost. I only expect 5 states to change hands – New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa to go for Obama while Michigan turns for McCain. That’s the ballgame there – and John McCain will win by 277-261.