Thursday, 30 April 2009

Odds on a 2009 election

Remembering how bad I am at predictions (I'm better at by-elections than, you know, Presidential elections...) you may wish to ignore any advice coming your way from this blog. But I think I may follow through on my January prediction of a 2009 election by putting my money where my mouth is.

Ladbrokes are offering 9/2 on a 2009 election - which in itself, doesn't really represent much value. But they also offer a punt on the month in which you think an election might occur. I went with a June election (on the same day as the Euros) and you can get 16/1 on that. I sense a cheeky wee fiver might not go amiss on that one...

Of course, they also have some more "fun" bets you can take, such as who you think the next Labour leader might be.

Selected odds:
Harriet Harman - 3/1
David Miliband - 6/1

Ed Miliband - 7/1

Ed Balls - 12/1

Alastair Darling - 33/1

John Reid - 50/1

Oh, and one more thing. The scandal involving Edinburgh South MP Nigel Griffiths (House of Commons romp, in case you'd forgotten) looks like it will cost him his seat if Ladbrokes odds are anything to go by. They have the Lib Dems as favourites for the seat at 11/8 followed by the Tories at 6/4. Labour are third in the betting market at 7/2. Looks like its curtains for knock-off Nigel...


Caron 30 April 2009 at 11:47  

If the election was going to be on June 4th, it would have to be called pretty soon. Do you think going to the country is the wisest thing to do in the midst of what is now a fairly unpredictable Swine Flu situation. Think that cheeky fiver could have been better spent.

Malc 30 April 2009 at 11:57  

Like on a couple of beers last night?

Anonymous,  30 April 2009 at 14:41  

Pile your money on the Tories for the Edinburgh South.

Caron 30 April 2009 at 15:52  

No chance. It's pretty clear that it's between Labour and Fred Mackintosh for the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South. One of the most marginal seats in the UK, 405 votes in it.

Malc 30 April 2009 at 16:16  

Seems Labour have slipped to third in the betting market - behind the Tories, suggesting an opportunity though.

However, Nigel now has name recognition (albeit for a sex romp). Will that help or hinder him?

Holyrood Patter 30 April 2009 at 16:40  

tories are now 1/3 favouritres for Redditch!
if smith stays on as home Sec, she could be worth a flutter

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