Wednesday, 3 September 2008

Challenge


An open letter:

Dear
Adam Smith was a Socialist (and other disagreeable ramblings),

I note from your most
recent post - and indeed, from previous political statistical analysis on your blog - that you fancy yourself as a bit of a politics geek. And that you take more than a passing interest in politics outside Scotland - in particular the race for the White House.

I know from previous conversations with you on the subject that we disagree on what we think will be the outcome on Nov 4th (we can't both be right!) so here's the challenge. Call all 50 states (plus D.C) according to who will win it - along with electoral college votes - and become the next President.


There are now just under 9 weeks to go until polls open, so we should set a date for predictions by - 6 weeks out. That's 3 weeks yesterday - Tuesday the 23rd of September. If your game, you should list the 50 states (plus D.C) in either the colour of the candidate you think will win (DEM/BLUE, REP/RED) or with the name of the winning party/candidate next to it. This can be done on your own blog or on the comments field here - just so we have a public record of it. Then we can work out which of us is a bigger geek - the winner will be the individual who correctly calls the most states.


Incidentally, I know there are so many other that are
just dying to take part in this geek-fest. Feel free to post your predictions, either on your own blogs or in the comments here. But by 23/09 - just so we're all even!

Sincerely,

Malc


ps - you know I'm the bigger geek, right?

5 comments:

Stephen Glenn 5 September 2008 at 18:45  

Ok Malc I've posted my response here but to avoid any possibility of cheating here are the splits.

McCain Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

Obama California, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey , New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin

Which by my reckoning also gives Barak Obama a 286-226 win over John McCain in the electoral college.

Malc 5 September 2008 at 20:14  

I think your maths is a bit off Stephen. 538 total electoral college votes. If Obama has 286, McCain gets 252. If McCain gets 226, Obama gets 312. I can't be bothered adding all yours up!

PS - the deadline is still 3 weeks away; you may wish to reconsider before then... (Colorado, Michigan, Ohio... maybe even Penn!)

Stephen Glenn 6 September 2008 at 11:39  

Hey now, I make my predictions and as for some I have sources. ;)

As for the electoral math I'll do it on a spreadsheet when I get a chance lol

Sam 20 September 2008 at 18:17  
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sam 20 September 2008 at 18:38  

Obama

California, Colorado, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin

McCain

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

So after using latest state by state polling, in-depth electoral analysis, historical voting trends, and about 47 random guesses my prediction is Obama to to take 311 electoral college votes to McCain's 227. Wow with predictions like these why is Obama even campaigning?!

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