Friday, 21 November 2008

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2005 result:
Sandra Osborne LAB – 20,433 (45.4%)
Mark Jones CON – 10,436 (23.2%)
Colin Waugh LD – 6,341 (14.1%)
Charles Brodie SNP – 5,932 (13.2%)
LABOUR HOLD
Majority: 9,997 over CON

Candidates:
Sandra Osbourne MP (LAB)

Swing required: CON – 11.1% LD – 15.65% SNP – 16.1%

Council area: -
East Ayrshire (SNP minority)
South Ayrshire (CON minority)

Scottish Parliament: -
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley: LAB (majority - 3,986 over SNP)
Ayr: CON (majority - 3,906 over LAB)

Electorate: 74,159
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley: 51,504 (69.4%)
Ayr: 22,655 (30.6%)

Prediction:
Despite losing control of East Ayrshire council and 14 councillors across the two council areas, this is still Labour heartland territory. 2005’s boundary changes removed the previous marginality of the seat and upped Labour’s majority. Cumnock IS Labour territory, and while the Tories have some decent margins in bits of Ayr, the seat is much more Labour than it is Tory. With a majority of almost 10,000 votes and a swing of over 11% required for any party to get close, expect Sandra Osborne to hold onto the seat, albeit, again, on a reduced majority of about 4,500. LAB HOLD

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