Friday, 28 November 2008

Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2005 result:
John Thurso LD – 13,957 (50.5%)
Alan Jamieson LAB – 5,789 (20.9%)
Karen Shirron SNP – 3,686 (13.3%)
Angus Ross CON – 2,835 (10.2%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD
Majority: 8,168 over LAB

Candidates:
John Thurso MP (LD)
John MacKay (LAB)

Swing required: LAB – 14.8 % SNP – 18.6% CON – 20.15%

Council area: -
Highland (Other [IND GROUP]-LD-LAB coalition) (previously OTH-SNP – June 08)

Scottish Parliament: -
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross: LD (majority - 2,323 over SNP)
Ross, Skye & Inverness West:
LD (majority - 3,486 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross AND Ross, Skye & Inverness West)

Electorate: 46,533
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross: 40,731 (87.5%)
Ross, Skye & Inverness West:
5,802 (12.5%)

Prediction:
A relatively straightforward hold for the Lib Dems in what should be considered safe territory for them. Although the Lib Dem vote will be squeezed nationally due to SNP-LAB and CON-LAB tactical voting,
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross should remain an intact LD stronghold. Expect the majority to be slashed to around 4,500-5,000, although who the main beneficiary will be is difficult to tell. I think that Labour voters might, in realising they won't win the seat, transfer votes to the Lib Dems - to stop the SNP winning - thereby losing second place to the Nats, who will shore up their regional performance at the SP election. An easy-ish LID DEM HOLD

1 comments:

Anonymous,  9 January 2009 at 23:34  

Interesting analysis. You'd think that with Labour selecting a local candidate and the SNP obviously not being a threat in the seat that Labour will increase their vote again. Remember it was a Labour seat not that long ago.

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