Airdrie & Shotts

2005 result:
John Reid LAB – 19,568 (59%)
Malcolm Balfour SNP – 5,484 (16.5%)
Helen Watt LD – 3,792 (11.4%)
Stuart Cottis CON – 3,271 (9.9%)
Labour HOLD
Majority: 14,084 over SNP

Candidates:
John Reid (LAB) *
Ruth Whitfield (CON)
*John Reid announced in September 2007 that he would stand down at the next election

Swing required: SNP – 21.25% LD – 23.8% CON – 24.55%

Council area: -
North Lanarkshire (LAB)

Scottish Parliament: -
Airdrie & Shotts: LAB (majority - 1,446 over SNP)
Hamilton North & Belshill: LAB (majority - 4,865 over SNP)
Coatbridge & Chryston: LAB (majority - 4,510 over SNP)

Electorate: 63,309
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Airdrie & Shotts: 55,519 (87.6%)
Hamilton North & Belshill: 7,380 (11.7%)
Coatbridge & Chryston: 410 (0.7%)

Prediction:
Despite the retirement of sitting MP and former holder of multiple Cabinet positions John Reid – and the massive (15%) swing away from Labour in the corresponding seat in the Scottish Parliament – I cannot see the 22% swing required to take the seat away from Labour in their heartlands. Without John Reid standing however, expect the Labour candidate to be returned with a much lower majority of around 4,500. LAB HOLD