Wednesday, 19 November 2008

Angus

2005 result:
Michael Weir SNP – 12,840 (33.7%)
Sandy Bushby CON – 11,239 (29.5%)
Douglas Bradley LAB – 6,850 (18.0%)
Scott Rennie LD – 6,660 (17.5%)
SNP HOLD
Majority: 1,601 over CON

Candidates:
Michael Weir (SNP)
Alberto Costa (CON)

Swing required: CON – 2.1% LAB – 7.85% LD – 8.1%

Council area: -
Angus (“Angus Alliance” - CON-LD-LAB-IND coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Angus: SNP (majority - 8,243 over CON)
Tayside North: SNP (majority - 7,584 over CON)

Electorate: 64,591
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Angus: 35,969 (55.7%)
Tayside North: 28,622 (44.3%)

Prediction:
Since Andrew Welsh stood down from the Angus seat at Westminster to retain his seat in the Scottish Parliament the Conservatives have reduced what was a 10,000+ majority in 1997 to 1,600 in 2005. Mike Weir has been a popular MP and Andrew Welsh has increased his majority in the Scottish Parliament in the face of difficult competition in the shape of Alex Johnstone MSP, while in neighbouring Tayside North, local MSP John Swinney has worked miracles as Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth. The SNP also won 13 of the council’s 29 seats in the 2007 local government elections. The SNP managed to retain Angus in what was a poor night for them in 2005. If the Tories couldn’t win here then, how are they going to do so with the SNP running the Scottish Government and generally doing pretty well in opinion polls? Expect an all-out assault but an effort that will ultimately fall just short in a two-horse race. SNP HOLD

3 comments:

Stuart Winton 20 November 2008 at 06:31  

John Swinney has 'worked miracles'?

He can't even organise free school meals for the bairns, never mind feeding the multitude ;-)

Malc 20 November 2008 at 08:42  

Think Stuart Winton works on the theory that "everyone loves a cynic"...

Stuart Winton 20 November 2008 at 19:23  

Cynic!

Och, my remark was intended to be humourous in nature - I know it wasn't very funny, but that's why I put the wee smilie in, just in case you took it the wrong way.

As for cyncism per se, I'm certainly in good company in the blogosphere in that regard!

Granted, your tone doesn't seem as cynical as many, but there does seem to be a tendency for cynicism when it suits, but not when others return the compliment, a la Hazel Blears, but I suppose that's politics.

By the same token, I certainly don't expect critique and cynicism to be popular, indeed quite the reverse, although on the other hand I think my stance is more in keeping with the populace in general rather than the party political tribalists who inhabit - and indeed seem to dominate - the blogosphere.

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