Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

2005 result:
Michael Moore LD – 18,993 (41.8%)
John Lamont CON – 13,092 (28.85)
Sam Held LAB – 7,206 (15.9%)
Aileen Orr SNP – 3,885 (8.6%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD
Majority: 5,901 over CON

Candidates:

Michael Moore MP (LD)
Chris Walker* John Lamont MSP (CON)
Paul Wheelhouse (SNP)

*It appears that Chris Walker was asked/forced/coerced into standing down as the candidate in favour of MSP John Lamont, who won the second selection fairly easily...

Swing required: CON – 6.48% LAB – 12.95 % SNP – 16.6%

Council area: -
Scottish Borders (Other-CON-LD coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Roxburgh & Berwickshire: CON (majority - 1,985 over LD – GAIN FROM LD)
Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale: LD (majority - 598 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale)

Electorate: 72,430
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Roxburgh & Berwickshire: 44,846 (61.9%)
Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale: 27, 584 (38.1%)

Prediction:
A two-horse race between the incumbent Lib Dem Michael Moore and Conservative challenger Chris Walker, Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk could prove to be one of the tightest fought seats in Scotland. High on the Conservatives list of targets, the work done by John Lamont in taking part of the Scottish Parliamentary equivalent should stand the party in good stead here. Another factor in play is the Borders Council is run by a coalition between the two main contenders. A 6.5% swing is all that is required for the Tories to win here, and I think if it is a good night for them nationally, that is managable. Expect fireworks, and afterwards, a new Conservative MP for the constituency. CON GAIN