Friday, 24 October 2008

US race tightens - or does it?


I know I said I thought the race would get closer before Nov 4th, but is it level already? According to this Associated Press poll it is.

Now, before anyone goes off explaining to me that the poll should be discounted because of AP's strict definition of a "likely voter" - in the main, being someone who has voted before, which discounts a lot of young, likely Obama, voters - I know. This poll has Obama at 44% and McCain at 43% - with a margin of error of + or - 3.5%. Which is closer to the way I think the race actually stands.


This poll contrasts with a number that I have recently mentioned - many giving Obama a
double-digit lead.

Early voting has already opened in a number of states - which will surely be influenced by some on the polls.

This isn't so much analysis as commentary now, though I'll say what I've said before: this race is not over yet.

Polls are basically statistics. And as Aberdeen's eccentric former manager
Ebbe Skovdahl stated, "Statistics are just like mini-skirts - they give you good ideas but hide the most important things."

Hmm.... quite.

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Contact

Feel free to get in touch with me if you have an issue with something you've read here... or if you simply want to debate some more! You can email me at:

baldy_malc - AT - hotmail - DOT - com

Comment Policy

I'm quite happy - indeed, eager - to engage in debate with others when the topic provides opportunity to do so. I like knowing who I'm debating with and I'm fed up with some abusive anonymous comments so I've disabled those comments for awhile. If you want to comment, log in - it only takes a minute.

Disclaimer

Regrettably, this is probably required:
This blog is my own personal opinion (unless otherwise stated) and does not necessarily reflect the views of any other organisation (political or otherwise) that I am a member of or affiliated to.
Related Posts with Thumbnails

  © Blogger template The Business Templates by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP