Monday, 14 January 2008

Michigan

After a going a bit blog-crazy yesterday I'll keep this one short. Returning to the US for a quick blog on Michigan's primary which is held on Tuesday. Now, with Michigan state level parties deciding to move the state's primary up the calendar in order to have more influence on the outcome of the nomination process, and the subsequent barring of half (Rep) or all (Dem) delegates from voting at the final conventions, the race has lost most of its meaning.

With Obama & Edwards removing their names from the ballot, expect Hillary to clean up the Democratic side, but with no convention voters up for grabs, it'll be a hollow win.

On the Republican side - with half of the normal convention delegates at stake - it's a much closer race. Most polls have John McCain - fresh from his New Hampshire success - neck and neck with Mitt Romney, whose father is a former governor of the state. Giuliani and Thompson have done no campaigning in Michigan and Iowa victor Mike Huckabee remains a distant third in polls. With Romney having no victories under his belt yet, he needs a result in Michigan - despite only half the delegates voting at the convention - to stand a realistic chance of staying in the race.

My prediction? It'll be close, but I think JOHN MCCAIN will hold on to win the state and build on the momentum from his New Hampshire win. Then we roll onto Nevada & South Carolina - the big test for John Edwards campaign.

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