Friday, 3 October 2008

McCain pulls out of Michigan


I understand from
this fairly pro-Obama source that John McCain believes he can no longer win the state of Michigan and its 17 electoral votes. Which, if its true, is massive for Obama.

According to my numbers, he'd need to win Michigan if Obama won Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa. If he does not either win Michigan OR pick up another of the large swing states like Pennsylvania then I think we're looking at an Obama win.

I'm not yet ready to call that - for a number of reasons - but I think this race remains too close to call. I'd say there is perhaps a trend towards Obama lately, but there are still over 4 weeks to go.

One more thing - the VP debate. Nothing really matters less in a US Presidential. Arguably
neither candidate scored a win - certainly not a big win. Both were (fairly) competent. Joe ("can I call you Joe?") Biden proved he'd be a competent VP while Sarah Palin exceeded (pretty low) expectations with a solid performance. Honours even again.

Next up: McCain v Obama Part II

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