Thursday, 16 October 2008

Is it over?

After the final debate last night - in which most commentators were suggesting McCain needed a knock-out to stand anything like a chance in the coming weeks - some analysts are now suggesting it might be all over, that the keys of that big white house on Pennsylvania Avenue should be passed over to Mr B. Obama.

However, this article has brought the election back into sharp focus for me by saying something I've been saying to anyone who would listen to me over the last few months.

For those of you that can't be bothered following the link, the article questions whether the lead Obama has in the polls (quoted at 14% in this piece!) is actually a fair reflection of the potential vote. What it asks is basically 2 questions: Have those sampled answered honestly? And have those who may use race as a factor been respondents to samples?

Obviously, there is no way of knowing the answer to either question. And the article doesn't try to. It merely points out that if McCain wins, there may be a reason why the polls have been so wrong.

Telling quote from the piece:

In certain, rare circumstances voters do not tell pollsters the truth, more out of embarrassment than mendacity.

Now, I'm not for one second suggesting that voters who decide to vote for John McCain based on racial discrimination are right. Indeed, if that were the case, perhaps people may start to question whether McCain's presidency might be tarnished by the apparent racism that got him elected. All I'm saying is this: The polls might well be completely wrong - and this could be why.

And as I said before, this thing is nowhere close to being over with three weeks to go.

Things are about to get interesting.


Anseo 16 October 2008 at 17:22  

Best tell Paddypower - they have apprently paid out on an Obama victory (being reported over on Political Betting).

Malc 16 October 2008 at 17:49  

So I believe... bizarre.

Anonymous,  16 October 2008 at 23:09  

McCain needs something to happen but I agree it is not over yet.

There is still a lot of close races in the swing states and I notice that Florida has just moved from 'Leaning Obama' to 'Toss Up'.

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