Friday, 24 April 2009

"SNP soars ahead of Labour"

so says The Herald today. And, erm, Jeff.

Base figures are:

Westminster (Scotland) Voting intention:
LAB - 32% SNP - 30% CON - 21% LD - 13%

Scottish Parliament (Constituency) Voting intention:
SNP - 37% LAB - 30% CON - 15% LD - 13%

Scottish Parliament (Regional) Voting intention:
SNP - 37% LAB - 28% CON - 15%
LD - 13% OTHER - 7%

A lot is being made of the fact that the poll was conducted for YouGov on behalf of the SNP. I find that a funny complaint. Although the March YouGov poll that I featured here wasn't for the SNP, the methodology would presumably be fairly similar. In that poll - for the same company as I stressed - Labour held a 10-point lead over the SNP on Westminster voting intention. That has been cut to 2 points in one month.

I'd suggest that Labour have, perhaps, not exactly had a great month. What with "smeargate" and a budget which there is a very public debate over, and 8-point swing might reflect that bad press.

Most frightening stat for Labour to come out of the poll though is this one:

Who would make the best First Minister?
Alex Salmond - 36%
Iain Gray - 7%

Ouch.

3 comments:

Anseo 24 April 2009 at 13:59  

Gray polled below Goldie who was on 10%.

Nobby Clark 24 April 2009 at 14:12  

Ken Livingstone always used to complain about YouGov, who he reckoned were not "inclusive enough" (and he would know). But YouGov called the London Mayoral election correctly.

Holyrood Patter 25 April 2009 at 19:39  

to make sure it was kosher i think the snp told youguv to have the same criteria as the last 2 polls on scotland

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