Friday, 14 November 2008

Aberdeen South

2005 Result:
Anne Begg LAB – 15,272 (36.7%)
Vicki Harris LD – 13,924 (33.5%)
Stewart Whyte CON – 7,134 (17.1%)
Maureen Watt SNP -4,120 (9.9%)
Labour HOLD
Majority: 1,348 over LD

Candidates:
Anne Begg MP (LAB)

Vicki Harris * Matt Duncan ** John Sleigh (LD)
Mark Jones
(CON)
Cllr Mark McDonald
(SNP)
* Vicki Harris resigned as candidate for LD in August 2007
** Matt Duncan resigned as candidate for LD as of 7 May 2008

Swing required: LD – 1.1% CON – 9.8% SNP – 13.4%

Council area: -
City of Aberdeen (LD-SNP coalition)

Scottish Parliament: -
Aberdeen South: LD (majority 2,731 over SNP)
Aberdeen Central: LAB (majority 382 over SNP)
(SNP MAJORITY ON REGIONAL LIST in Aberdeen Central & Aberdeen South)

Electorate: 69,332
of Scottish Parliament Constituencies -
Aberdeen South: 58,562 (84.5%)
Aberdeen Central: 10,770 (15.5%)

Prediction:
In a UK-wide context I expect the CON-LAB contest to squeeze the Lib Dems, while in Scotland the LAB-SNP contest will probably do the same. It is likely that this will see the Lib Dems drop their share of the votes in some places where they should really be moving forward. Aberdeen South is a very winnable seat for the Lib Dems – requiring a swing of just over 1%, with the added assistance of holding the equivalent Scottish Parliament seat (that of former Scottish party leader Nicol Stephen). However, this may be one of the contests where they may just fall short given Anne Begg’s relative popularity compared to the Lib Dem-led council. The SNP may just pip the Tories for third, and that would count as progress for them. All things considered, probably a safe-ish LAB HOLD

1 comments:

Stephen Glenn 23 December 2008 at 11:53  

Malc sadly the day for going public with the reason for the first Lib Dem candidate stepping aside here has come to be public knowledge.

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